A Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern combination would redraw the railroad map (trains.com)
66 points by throw0101c 20 hours ago
woodruffw 15 hours ago
These articles are a good reminder of a bittersweet truth: the US has an incredibly advanced and dense rail network, paid for with federal land grants[1]; we just choose not to use it to benefit travelers. That isn't to say that we need a system that's as good as most European countries have; having these railroad companies follow the laws around Amtrak's priority would be a good start[2].
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_land_grants_in_the_Un...
[2]: https://www.amtrak.com/content/dam/projects/dotcom/english/p...
jcranmer 15 hours ago
> the US has an incredibly advanced and dense rail network, paid for with federal land grants
Note that only a small portion of the US rail network was built with land grants, about 18k miles out of ~250k miles in the peak of the US rail network. Also, most of the land-grant railroads are in the Western states, which is actually generally the least-dense portion of the rail network (in large part because the population density of that area is quite low--which is a large part of the reason for the land grants in the first place!).
woodruffw 14 hours ago
That's true, but I'd argue that the land grants are what made it economically worthwhile to develop and maintain the denser parts of the network. You correctly observe that the network itself tracks with population density, but the value of the network is in its completeness: it wouldn't be nearly as valuable if there was a 1000 mile hole in it in the middle of the country.
jcranmer 13 hours ago
nocoiner 15 hours ago
It was also paid for by ripping the face of 19th century bondholders who went bust many, many times.
bluGill 15 hours ago
Europes rail network is far worse - but it appears better because you see passanger traffic and don't think what else. That and europe mostly can't see beyond national borders (there is a language barrier with most) and so they fail to create good eu wide rail of any sort.
cycomanic 12 hours ago
Far worse in what sense? More tracks, sure the US rail network is about 1.5 times the size of the European network for the same landmass.
But then, I don't think quality wise I don't think you'd encounter a track like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X2A2f6E5DI anywhere in Europe. Or the comparison of high speed tracks 9600km in Europe vs 70 km in the US.
The reason for this is obviously the completely different priorities US is freight, Europe is passenger. So I don't think you can really compare the two networks and say one is clearly better.
holowoodman 7 hours ago
dylan604 12 hours ago
bluGill 3 hours ago
woodruffw 14 hours ago
I meant specifically from the perspective of passenger rail, yes. I don't doubt that the US has significantly better freight rail.
(I've crossed borders several times on European trains, and it was never a problem. By contrast, crossing the US-Canada border by train is an exercise in boredom and frustration.)
Aloha 14 hours ago
Notably most of the BN part of BNSF was not built with land grants.
KennyBlanken 12 hours ago
Incredibly advanced? Bullshit.
Among the G8 we probably have the least-electrified, slowest rail network with the worst Positive Train Control. Probably the most dangerous, too, given how disastrous Precision Railroad Scheduling has been for safety. We also likely have the highest crash and derailment rates.
This is a sad joke: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_train_control#Deploym...
ASES, ACSES, ETMS, CBTM, CBOSS, E-ATC, ITCS, and whatever Union Pacific is using. That's over half a dozen different systems and none of them are inherently compatible with each other - specialized systems are required to tie the systems together on railways that might have trains with different systems.
I'm guessing no other country in the G8 has issues with freight train movement such that trains routinely bisect towns and entire counties for hours or more and force police, fire, and medical services to reroute, as well as require children to crawl underneath the trains (which could start moving without warning) to get to/from school.
Why? Because the feds are not regulating train lengths nor mandating that trains cannot block road intersections for more than a certain amount of time, so the railways do whatever they please.
I'm guessing no other G8 country has problems with the government (federal, state, or local) having no idea what hazardous materials are being shipped and where...no way to look it up, not noticed by the railroad, nothing.
computegabe 20 hours ago
What's the argument for the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger [1]? Any rational admin would shoot down the merger immediately as this will create a massive monopoly.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/union-pacific-talks-advance...
alexey-salmin 4 hours ago
Perhaps a monopoly is the way for the rail, preferably state-owned.
Generally I'm heavily against both monopolies and state-controlled companies, but railways seem to be a corner-case where all the downsides and inefficiencies are outweighted by a nation-wide system that actually works.
Spooky23 15 hours ago
Consolidation reduces competition and increases margins. The rest of the market and the people are sacrificed at the altar of shareholder value.
Aloha 14 hours ago
NS and UP do not meaningfully compete today, their networks have very little overlap.
woodruffw 14 hours ago
throw0101c 19 hours ago
> What's the argument for the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger [1]?
'Cost savings through synergies which will be passed down to customers.'
(And certainly not shareholders and suits making more money.)
bpodgursky 20 hours ago
They share essentially zero miles of track or routes. A move only creates a monopoly if it reduces consumer choice.
No freight customer is deciding "Oh I can either ship from LA to Seattle, or Miami to DC." They are shipping from one fixed location to a different fixed location. These railroads merging does not reduce their choices or give the combined entity more leverage.
throw0101c 20 hours ago
> They are shipping from one fixed location to a different fixed location. These railroads merging does not reduce their choices or give the combined entity more leverage.
If someone on the US west coast wants to ship to the US east (or vice versa) they can pit UP against BNSF, and then NS against CSX. There are a few pairs up because of the two negotiating points:
* UP-NS
* UP-CSX
* BNSF-NS
* BNSP-CSX
If the merger goes through you're now at:
* merged-UPNS
* BNSF-CSX
Do you think UPNS will give a cheaper price for a 'half-trip' and you go to their competitor the other half?
You don't think BNSF/CN/CP aren't looking at CSX right now?
liveoneggs 20 hours ago
That is a big assumption on your part that east coast ports don't compete with west coast ports
lokar 20 hours ago
How about monopsony?
AnimalMuppet 20 hours ago
Monopoly? No. Union Pacific plus Norfolk Southern would have a monopoly on single-line end-to-end rail service in the US, true, but that's the kind of thing that you can get a "monopoly" in. BNSF and CSX interchange with each other, after all. And BNSF and CSX could (and almost certainly would) merge in response. So there's no monopoly argument.
Which doesn't mean that a rational regulator would not turn it down anyway. But rational regulators may not be running the show at the moment. UP sees that there may be an opportunity during the Trump administration. (Note "may" - nobody knows whether there is an opportunity, but there is more of a chance than there was under Biden.)
throw0101c 20 hours ago
> Monopoly? No.
How about oligopoly then.
If UP/NS happens, we're down from six to five Class Is (ignoring Amtrak):
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._Class_I_railroads
Then BNSF/CSX? Or CN or CP go after CSX? That's four.
Do we start seeing the acquiring of Class IIs?
SoftTalker 14 hours ago
AnimalMuppet 19 hours ago
alexose 19 hours ago
The rules that govern American railroads are impressively weird and arcane. They seem almost impossible to unravel at this point. Which is a shame, because so many American cities sacrifice the central corridors of their city to huge railyards and slow-moving freight trains.
I think of Portland, Oregon, where the tracks run north/south along the river. You can see them sitting there empty while you're stuck in traffic on I-5, which runs parallel. Running a commuter rail or light rail on those things would make life a lot less miserable trying to get around the city.
khuey 15 hours ago
Portland is kind of weird because it has big yards for two Class Is in town. But they're both right on the waterfront (which is bad for urban transit, since it means half the walkshed is wasted). The BNSF line doesn't go anywhere useful on the west bank of the river. The useful parts of the UP line on the east bank of the river are essentially duplicated by the MAX lines to Expo Center and Milwaukie. The main useful thing you could get out of the Class I lines in Greater Portland is a S-Bahn-like service to Vancouver, WA IMO.
alexose 12 hours ago
They said to keep Portland weird, but I don't think this is what they meant :)
I do think an S-Bahn style service would be interesting to pursue. Or even just regular commuter rail. The MAX is too slow for long distance commuting (it's usually faster just to sit in traffic), and it crucially doesn't go into Vancouver yet.
hopelite 15 hours ago
It’s because you seem to not understand how America functions. The railroads are largely private enterprises, running on private rail on private land owned by those private enterprises. Many of the cities and towns you may be wanting passenger rail literally only exist because those private rail companies were built and existed there.
Those private enterprises do what is profitable for them, which is largely hauling material in a market where cars that provide degrees of freedom and autonomy, trains simply cannot provide under even the best circumstances.
It also ignores that the passenger trains of places like Europe and Asia are extremely subsidized and no one actually pays the full cost of those rail systems directly; especially not naive Americans traveling to/in Europe being amazed at how nice and cheap it is to travel by rail in Europe, because they are paying a price that is heavily subsidized by the tax slave called the European worker, who also is far more controlled in his actions and freedoms through the mobility limitations that rail imposes.
You can build all the rail you want in America, but there are so many structural and cultural things that are headwinds that it simply does not work.
A rather successful and good bus service that has exploded onto the European market, FlixBus recently tried entering the American market by buying Greyhound (yes, it still existed), but that has not gone well and they’ve been cutting routes and shutting Greyhound stations for reasons that any reasonably informed American could have warned them about.
Car sales are up in America, cars being sold are getting bigger and more expensive in America. Not even any of the wonderful immigrants want to use Greyhound or Amtrak, they bit cars too, especially the European immigrants that like buying trucks the second they hit American soil. They don’t ride Amtrak and Greyhound either, or ride their bikes for that matter.
You can rage against the system all you want, but reality is that there are some forces that will defy any and all wishful thinking and obsessions for reasons that are not actually based in reason or honesty.
We have made large strides towards electric vehicles in America, yet people like you are still not satisfied and it exposes that it really was never about emissions or combustion or pollution, you either wanted to control people’s freedom of movement and/or can’t stand that people would have freedom of movement you don’t have, and want them to also be miserable with you.
mlavrent 14 hours ago
> it exposes that it really was never about emissions or combustion or pollution, you either wanted to control people’s freedom of movement
This isn’t the problem- the real problem is that in dense cities, transporting everyone where they want to go via private vehicles just doesn’t work geometrically- see the traffic and parking needs that grow as cities grow assuming private vehicle use only.You end up needing a more space-efficient form of moving people, namely public transit.
holowoodman 7 hours ago
alexose 13 hours ago
> you seem to not understand how America functions > you can rage against the system all you want [with] wishful thinking and obsessions > people like you are still not satisfied > you either wanted to control people’s freedom of movement > want them to also be miserable with you
I was just ideating on Portland traffic, dawg
WarOnPrivacy 20 hours ago
Wikipedia has a combined map of UP & NS, for some reason.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Union_Pacific_and_Norfolk...
gs17 20 hours ago
And ethanol plants, which I was surprised to find out is actually a big deal for rail (or rail is a big deal for ethanol?). I guess I never put much thought into how much of it was being produced and how it was being moved around.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_railNA_a_EPOOXE_RAIL_m...
reactordev 14 hours ago
Most industrial plants have rail connections to move bulk materials. It’s more economical than trucks for some stuff. Chemicals, crude oil, cut lumber, all cheaper by rail than by truck - though trucks haul 65%+ of goods in America, they are often used for last mile for those materials.
wombatpm 17 hours ago
Chemical plants in general have rail spurs to move products out and raw materials in.
stockresearcher 18 hours ago
The cynical take is that two public company CEOs have run out of ideas for further stock growth and are looking for anything else that will juice the share price in the short term.
Neither company is so inefficient that you can save much of anything by combining the two, and there is only so far you can raise prices before customers switch to trucks or send container ships to different ports of call. With no overlapping territory, you aren't going to cut the number of trains you run and you can't get rid of half your maintenance staff (can you?).
Investment banks will do well running the merger and surely they'll issue debt to finance it. But what kind of growth can we really expect?
qwerty456127 20 hours ago
Let them run the railroad, let others run the trains.
Animats 10 hours ago
Britain tried that. Network Rail, a unit of the Government, owns the tracks, and 28 or so Train Operating Companies run the trains.
The UK started out with railroads in private ownership. They were nationalized in 1948, as British Rail. Then they were de-nationalized in the 1980s and 1990s. Now, they're being re-nationalized.
None of this is considered a huge success.
petesergeant 9 hours ago
I would argue the rail/train ownership split was the least bad bit of this tbh.
CGMthrowaway 20 hours ago
What does this comment mean?
cheschire 20 hours ago
When one company controls both the trains AND the infrastructure, it results in an unfair advantage over anyone else wishing to use the rail. Commuter trains needing to pull over to let cargo trains from the parent company through, for example.
ghaff 20 hours ago
CGMthrowaway 20 hours ago
AnimalMuppet 20 hours ago
hakfoo 13 hours ago
Trying to split infrastructure from operations hasn't worked out well in the UK, and the US version for passengers isn't doing so hot either.
hecanjog 20 hours ago
Would this have an impact on Amtrak service? The trains in my area often get stopped by freight traffic, and Chicago is pretty much a mandatory change-over point. Could this allow some routes to open up connecting each side of the Mississippi more fluidly in the longer term?
We got a new route (well, a new train running on a segment of an existing route, offering more flexibility for scheduling) from MSP to CHI recently, which has been great.
lokar 20 hours ago
I don’t see how Amtrak survives the next 3 years
hecanjog 19 hours ago
Sure hope they do. Ridership is at record levels, if they get shut down it's certainly not for lack of demand.
kortilla 20 hours ago
What’s changed? That general sentiment has been around for the last 15-20 years but they keep plugging along.
lokar 19 hours ago
cheschire 20 hours ago
Any time I hear the names of train companies in America, I am always transported back a few decades, playing Rail Baron with my family.
For those that have never heard of that game, please enjoy:
WarOnPrivacy 20 hours ago
Ticket to Ride is thought to be RB's natural successor.
ref: https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/94883/rail-baron-comparing-...
DavidPeiffer 20 hours ago
I think about a book I found in Texas at a thrift store. Poor's 1925 Railroad Section [1] is a thick book containing details about every (?) railroad in the US such as miles of track, tons hauled, revenue, recent mergers, etc.
I'm not sure whether there is digitized data for railroad performance from the era, but it seemed like it'd be a neat dataset to assemble and research.
https://www.abebooks.com/first-edition/Poors-1925-Railroad-S...
bpodgursky 20 hours ago
FWIW, while the instinctive response here will be that this is a monopolistic and anti-consumer play, the reality is that these companies share almost zero routes. There's no real way for railroads to be be competitive unless they are fighting for the same customers (and UP/NS are not).
So, the statements about improved operational efficiency are not totally implausible.
throw0101c 20 hours ago
> FWIW, while the instinctive response here will be that this is a monopolistic and anti-consumer play, the reality is that these companies share almost zero routes.
And cable companies also don't have overlapping territory, so from the consumer point of view it did not reduce competition. But from the 'other side' when there are fewer ISPs then tech companies can be squeezed because there are fewer paths to eye-balls overall and each path has more influence because instead of two ISPs have 10% of Netflix customers, now one has 20%:
* https://qz.com/256586/the-inside-story-of-how-netflix-came-t...
Similarly with Amazon and books: while cheap consumer prices may look great, from the book publishers' perspective there's a choke point to readers, and so now the publishers have to consolidate to get market power over Amazon.
And if this goes through, do you think the other Class Is will sit around?
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._Class_I_railroads
CSX is mostly east of the Mississippi, while BNSF is west: what about that kind of merger? Or CN or CP doing the same thing?
bpodgursky 20 hours ago
Who is the equivalent of Netflix in this relationship? You can't draw fuzzy-wuzzy analogies without actually spelling out the connection.
Freight rail is not an eyeball market, the customers are the ones paying.
throw0101c 19 hours ago
bell-cot 20 hours ago
I'd regard Trains magazine as experts in the industry.
That said, they're obviously reluctant to criticize the larger railroads.
theturtle 19 hours ago
...it would also completely fuck any remaining Amtrak traffic that isn't on Amtrak-owned track. Norfolk Southern already routinely ignores the actual on-the-books law that prioritizes passenger traffic over freight, and UP isn't much better out west. BNSF we'll just ignore.
jmyeet 20 hours ago
Private railroads are a mistake. Let's see what the private railroad industry has done.
The railroads kept reducing their workforce to get an uptick in profitability, so much so that there wasn't enough spare capacity for railroad workers to get paid sick leave of any kind. The railroad workforce were taking industrial action to get paid sick leave. What happened? Congress stepped in to use legislation to end a labor dispute for essential workers to side with the company. Oh and this was under Biden. As an aside, a later deal was made to give them a handful of paid sick days, quietly.
If the railroad caved to 100% of the union's demands it would've cost 6% of the company's profits. Not revenue. Profits.
The other is an industry wide effort called Precision Scheduled Railroads ("PSR"). Basically this means having trains with twice as many carriages and skipping safety chcecks because that costs money.
There are over 1000 train derailments a year. Most of these aren't a big deal. Others are like East Palestine, Ohio a few years ago, which caused a toxic spill in a populated area, something that continues to be an issue [1]. A lot of toxic chemicals are transported by rail. What was insane was the media didn't report on the East Palestine derailment for a week to 10 days despite there being a black toxic plume that could be seen from space. They were finally embarrassed into covering it by social media, particularly Tiktok.
All railroad companies do to maintain and increase profits is cut costs, pretty much like every other company. That means suppressing wages, skimping on maintenance and safety and not investing in fixing anything.
[1]: https://www.npr.org/2024/02/05/1228772709/east-palestine-tra...
Aloha 14 hours ago
They built the railroads, often on their own dime, and paid taxes by the fistful for them.
Their competition was subsidized by the general government, and continues to be every year.
If you want to argue that nationalizing railroads should be done for the public good, do that - dont just demonize them, because its not a fully winning argument.
esseph 11 hours ago
They spend a LOT on lobbying and politics.
mschuster91 8 hours ago
> There are over 1000 train derailments a year.
No surprise when the rails are utter dogshit. Something like [1] - you can clearly see how incredibly uneven the track is - which flies over my youtube feed way too much for my liking would yield immediate regulatory action here in Germany.
echelon 20 hours ago
Welp, there goes the brand new HQ that Norfolk Southern built in Atlanta...
zieski 15 hours ago
More likely the UP headquarters in Omaha, just like Enron moving Northern Natural Gas to Houston