Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk (research.google)
143 points by aleyan 5 hours ago
presidentender 4 hours ago
I got one of those dongles from my insurance company that plugged into the ODB2 port and reported my driving habits.
I was a bad driver. It would frequently beep at me to let me know that I had braked too hard. I was mystified. "What should I have done differently," I'd think, as I raged at the objective machine that judged me so.
The next time my brother came to visit, he called mom. "Oh, and presidentender is a good driver now." I didn't put the pieces together right away, but it turned out that the dongle had actually trained me, like a dog's shock collar.
The reason for my too-frequent hard-braking events wasn't speed, although that would be a contributing factor. It was a lack of appropriate following distance. Because I'd follow the drivers in front of me too closely I'd have to brake hard if they did... Or if they drive normally and happened to have a turn coming up.
Over the period I had the insurance spy box in my truck I learned without thinking about it to increase my following distance, which meant that riding with me as a passenger was more comfortable and it beeped less often. Of course since I'd been so naughty early during the evaluation they didn't decrease my rates, but I think the training probably did make me statistically less likely to crash.
mountain_peak 4 hours ago
Maintaining a safe following distance is incredibly challenging on busy freeways where hard braking is often 'required'. Most people have likely found themselves in this situation: vehicle changes lanes in front of you; you slow down to maintain a safe following distance, another car sees a gap and changes lanes in front of you. Repeat for your entire commute.
Incredibly frustrating, and I've driven all over North America - there's practically no major city where this doesn't happen. If you're not maintaining a safe following distance on city/residential streets, that's a different matter.
sagarm 3 hours ago
If you think highway driving requires hard braking, you're a bad driver.
appreciatorBus 2 hours ago
dekhn 27 minutes ago
bell-cot 2 hours ago
CamperBob2 27 minutes ago
kube-system 2 hours ago
If you think people are going to cut in front of you, provide a safety cushion large enough to account for that. Aggressive drivers almost universally will consume the forward part of the space cushion you leave. At most you will simply need to lift the accelerator to maintain space. The only time someone cutting in front of you should require hard braking is if they also brake hard.
It does require patience to do this, because all aggressive drivers will use the space you provide. But ultimately the travel time difference in flowing traffic is negligible.
MostlyStable an hour ago
cucumber3732842 26 minutes ago
gwbas1c 2 hours ago
I'm one of the faster drivers and I maintain a safe distance. (I usually have the most distance in rush hour.) It's very easy with adaptive cruise control or the other self-driving technologies that are on the market.
The only people who cut too close to me are driving recklessly.
That being said: If you're in the mode where people are constantly changing lanes in front of you, think a bit about how you're driving: On the freeway you're supposed to stay to the right except to pass, and you're expected to keep up with the flow of traffic. Are you going slow in the left lane? Are you driving too slow? Are you camping in the right lane by a busy interchange?
thewebguyd 39 minutes ago
yial 4 hours ago
This is accurate in many ways. I use the auto cruise feature on my car frequently and I notice several things happen unless I set the distance as close as possible (which I don’t like to do. ).
1. In any amount of traffic above “a few cars” people will cut in front of me, sometimes two, negating the safe following distance. Regardless of speed.
2. If I have a safe following distance while waiting for someone to get over. (I e they’re going 60, I want to go 70), if I have my distance set at a safe following distance, people are much more likely to weave / pass on the right. (My theory would be that the distance I’m behind the person in front of them signals that I’m not going to accelerate / pass when the person gets over ).
Disclaimer: I don’t usually have to drive in any significant traffic, and when I do (Philly, New York City), I’m probably less likely to use the automatic features because the appropriate follow distance seems to increase the rage of drivers around me.
Noumenon72 3 hours ago
VladVladikoff 3 hours ago
vardalab 3 hours ago
bloomingeek an hour ago
Tailgating is against the law. Tailgating causes hard braking.
I recently pulled my travel trailer from OK to Charleston, SC and back. I never drive over 65 MPH for safety and MPG reasons. I always stay in the right hand, slow lane except if I have to take a left lane exit. Since I was always driving slower then everyone else, not once did I have to hard brake. Tailgating is a choice and a dangerous one.
I was never honked at, even by the crazy semi truck drivers.
rconti an hour ago
cucumber3732842 8 minutes ago
OptionOfT 2 hours ago
> North America
Having driven all over NA, and Europe, I find it more prevalent in NA. Less distance, more people in large pickups throwing their weight around to make someone move out of the way.
And a design of giant freeway interchanges that require shifting lanes.
E.g. on the 405 in CA. 7 lines going South from the Valley towards Santa Monica.
That's 7 lanes you need to cross if you're in the HOV lane.
amanaplanacanal 4 hours ago
Does it really matter though? Is the end result just a couple of minutes later in a 30 minute commute? Or does it actually make a large difference in travel time?
avidiax 2 hours ago
yial 4 hours ago
mountain_peak 4 hours ago
ChuckMcM 3 hours ago
Okay I'm thinking of a very Shenzen kind of gizmo for your car that projects a bright red laser "keep out" box on the road in front of your car which is adjusted in size for your current speed.
NitpickLawyer 3 hours ago
rootusrootus 3 hours ago
antisthenes an hour ago
dheera an hour ago
Gravityloss an hour ago
I live in a place that has harsh winter conditions with ice, gravel and the occasional loose tire stud flying into people's windshields, warranting frequent expensive replacements.
Somebody on the radio said that "just set the adaptive cruise control to max distance and your windshield will last way longer". It does feel overprotective at times, especially in slow and dense traffic, but I think there's a nice point in general.
stevage an hour ago
rconti an hour ago
I find it quite easy to hold/manage a tight space that people won't cut into, and don't have to brake hard, because I look ahead.
To be sure, it's more mentally taxing to hold a tight gap, so it's not something you want to do all the time, but it's fine.
bluGill 2 hours ago
False. I've done it many times - when you open up space two cars jump in, but the rest don't and so the space remains. But you notice those two cars and think it means more than it does.
duped 3 hours ago
Why does this require "hard" braking? If another car cuts in front of you just decelerate gently. You don't brake and wait until the gap is big enough (also if this is stop-and-go traffic, you should be trying to avoid braking at all)
mountain_peak an hour ago
sershe an hour ago
The most frustrated people are those behind you, and if I was id soon be another person merging in front of you. If people are constantly merging in front of you, either everyone is going too fast or you are going too slow :)
xnx 4 hours ago
Thanks for sharing. I'm genuinely impressed to hear someone publicly share a story of growing self awareness and improvement.
johnmaguire 3 hours ago
On the other hand, at age 20, with very high premiums, I got one of these devices which never beeped except on a few too-short exit ramps on highways in my city. The choice on these exits is to slow down traffic on the highway, or endure a "hard stop" by braking immediately when you are on the ramp, and coming to a full stop at the stop sign.
Just a few of these was enough that my "discount" was only a few dollars. I regret giving Progressive my driving data.
ip26 2 hours ago
I had a somewhat similar experience - as I recall, most beeps happened as a result of a few stop lights with too-short yellows (e.g. the light changes yellow and you, even though you are below the speed limit, either panic stop or run the red light)
The only possible fix as a driver was to try to develop an intuition for spotting “stale” greens and start slowing down despite the green, anticipating the yellow.
I feel at least partially vindicated by the fact the lights in question eventually had their yellows extended.
marcosdumay 2 hours ago
If there's no extra exit lane, the right choice is to slow down traffic on the highway.
What will happen if there's some oil spill or brake failure at the point you think you should break hard?
johnmaguire an hour ago
kqr an hour ago
Not only are you less likely to crash -- you're less likely to cause a crash ten cars behind you.
This diagram changed how I think about following distance: https://entropicthoughts.com/keep-a-safe-following-distance
MisterTea 4 hours ago
Safe following is super important. Few years back about a month after I bought a new car I was driving to work keeping a larger than normal gap thanks to a bit of "new car" anxiety. I was in the left lane, keeping pace with a cluster of three cars ahead of me, two of them tailgating. I don't know what happened but within seconds the middle car swerved, side swiped a car in the middle lane then rear ended the lead car while the trailing car rear ended them. Four cars smashed up right in front of me. I was fine because I had plenty of time to slow down and pull onto the shoulder to clear the chaos.
wffurr 3 hours ago
Just like Lightning McQueen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvhFjVj7k44
taeric 31 minutes ago
Kudos on you for acknowledging that your behavior changed! It is depressing how many people online are convinced that the emergency braking systems are too aggressive. The best is the cohort that insist these systems will be what causes accidents.
Gud 2 hours ago
I can only speak for Europe, but driving too closely to the driver in front is unfortunately how 90% of drivers drive.
Unless it’s in Netherlands, where it’s 100%.
HoldOnAMinute 4 hours ago
Is there any vehicle that uses it's sensors to make a gentle suggestion about following distance?
It's probably the best single thing anyone can do to improve safety. It also reduces wear-and-tear on your car, and increases your fuel economy as a side benefit.
Why hasn't gamification of safe driving habits been built directly into the car itself before now?
girvo 37 minutes ago
My Cupra Born does this; it has a little line that it draws on a "road" with the car in front, and you have to put the car in front of the line to be safe. Its quite a fun little system haha, works well on me!
vablings 2 hours ago
My wife's VW will show the following distance and if you are too close a small icon is displayed on the dash. I believe its warning you that if there is emergency breaking required for the car it will not be able to stop in time.
It also shows how close you are to the car Infront in "car length" units with a nice big indicator and the adaptive cruse control will follow that distance mostly on its own between 30-100mph
dietr1ch 2 hours ago
One of the few things I really don't like about my Subbie is that it tries to help braking.
I'm all in for traction control and to some extent ABS, but braking hard and upsetting the car's balance when you don't need it is dangerous.
rconti an hour ago
SoftTalker 4 hours ago
A lot of them do. My wife's VW beeps an alert if you're too close to the car ahead of you. It might be that it only activates above a certain speed.
I think it will also back down the cruise control (if set) if it detects that you are gaining on the car ahead. That might be MILs Toyota though.
I learned the "two second rule" in Driver's Education 45 years ago and generally follow that. Nothing more annoying than having the car behind you riding your bumper.
ARandomerDude 4 hours ago
> Why hasn't gamification of safe driving habits been built directly into the car itself before now?
I am so glad it hasn't. Data point of one, but gamification now has the opposite effect on me: it's such a well-worn pattern that it just annoys me. It was great when it was novel. I wonder how many others feel the same but without sampling it's hard to know.
yial 4 hours ago
hiq 3 hours ago
As a passenger, I really notice the difference, and I wish more drivers (including professionals) would learn as you did. It probably saves energy as well, especially when driving in cities, although I guess it's marginal.
coredog64 2 hours ago
Back when I had a Prius, I made a conscious effort to avoid using the brake pedal during the highway portion of my commute. It made a small difference to fuel economy, but treating it as a game reduced the frustration with stop&go traffic.
dietr1ch 2 hours ago
I don't think it's marginal since accelerating the car needs way more energy than fighting loses due to wind and tyre resistance.
Also, a bad driver mis-breaking trips the cars behind into breaking too, which multiplies the energy waste and may also cause accidents through fatigue.
Mare experienced drivers will give you more leeway to avoid tapping the brakes with you, or simply go for a staring overtake.
darkteflon 2 hours ago
People here in Tokyo follow at obscenely tight distance on the freeways and motorways. Drives me crazy. Don't have the data, but having driven here for over 20 years, I’d venture that short following distances must be one of the main causes of accidents on these types of roads. People are otherwise generally cautious and attentive drivers. When I’ve expressed frustration about it to locals in the past, the response is often “but if you leave more space, people will cut in!” To which I respond, “okay, and?!” I feel like a single big media campaign to improve following distances could result in a big improvement. So frustrating.
daringrain32781 3 hours ago
I was recently driving a friend and hit a mile-long backup at a freeway exit. At some point in the lineup, a car abruptly cut in front of me to merge into the line. The friend asked "why'd you let them in" - but I didn't let them in on purpose, I was just maintaining a reasonable following distance which people seem to interpret as "hey cut in here for free"
dietr1ch 2 hours ago
The balance between safe following distance and letting people cut in varies a lot by city. Maybe he learnt to drive elsewhere?
I remember being too aggressive when I got to the Bay Area, and learning how nice it was to be let into the lane I needed to avoid being forced on a 5mi U-turn. When visiting back home I was too nice and people told me so.
I've reached a balance. Aggressive enough not to be taken advantage of, but being nice to drivers in need, specially when it doesn't really change things for me, like when letting a driver in costs me nothing because of how bad traffic is.
bluGill 2 hours ago
It is called the zipper merge. You were in the wrong for waiting in the stophed lane and the other person right for passing all you thinking you are better.
rationalist 2 hours ago
MeteorMarc 2 hours ago
If you have to brake hard, it is still important to not brake harder than necessary, to give the cars behind you the best possible chance to react in time.
jjice 4 hours ago
I have a friend who would also follow too closely to the cars in front and got one of these. Her rates went up and she eventually got into an accident (no injuries to anyone) because she would follow too closely and still break too hard.
Now she still has the machine, still follows too closely, and still breaks too hard in her new car...
Good it worked for you though!
yial 4 hours ago
A cousin of mine is abysmal to drive with as a passenger. He follows too closely to the car in front of him, regardless of lane / speed. He will slow down, follow closely, and then aggressively pass. Repeating ad nauseam.
No smooth maintaining of speed and nice passes as able without slowing down.
Surprisingly, his accidents have mostly seemed to involve gas pumps, barriers, and other obstacles at low speed.
toxik 3 hours ago
socalgal2 4 hours ago
I'm always surprised at the number of people that follow too closely.
This always stuck with me
iamflimflam1 2 hours ago
As one of my friends put it - driving in the US is like being in Whacky Races.
SLWW an hour ago
While i find everything about this post thoroughly dystopian; I will state that I don't break harshly, just about ever, my car still has it's original breakpads (they still have some life, about a cm and a half to two) and it had 107k on the odo. Never been in an accident outside of getting break-checked by an insurance scammer when I was 19, and a head on when i was stopped at a stop sign.
Although I keep a varying follow distance, if there is an open lane immediately adjacent to me, I don't care if i'm tailing someone a bit, but if I'm boxed then you better believe it's 6+ car distance.
camel_gopher 2 hours ago
The problem with increasing your following distance though is now you get other drivers cutting in, and you’re back to where you started
bluGill 2 hours ago
Only two, then people who maintain their lane are there and there is space.
dheera 2 hours ago
> It was a lack of appropriate following distance.
Not in my case. I keep plenty of following distance, 9 times out of 10 my hard braking is because some idiot cuts into that following distance and brake-checks me.
OneOffAsk 2 hours ago
Aim to make the road laminar. Every time you hard brake, you're causing the milk jug to glug, making a ripple of entropy as momentum turns to heat from your brakes and those behind you, sometimes in perpetuity. I learned this while doing a 1.5hr daily commute in a Subaru with a clapped out manual transmission. I wanted to conserve energy shifting, but realized I was now participating in large choreographed dance of "smooth" with other drivers who already knew this. There are many of us. And we all glare at the driver blinking their red lights on the interstate indicating that they're loud and proud of introducing turbulence to an otherwise peaceful system.
harshaw 5 hours ago
Nice research. This is fairly well known in insurance circles. Most auto insurers that do telematics consider hard braking the strongest indicator of risk. One of the things that we do at work (Cambridge Mobile Telematics) is build tools to deal with this risk. We have apps that monitor driving and we play a tone to indicate that a hard braking event was detected. Simply letting people know that they had a hard braking event is an effective mechanism for behavior change (other companies have similar tech)
advisedwang 4 hours ago
Insurance is thinking about hard braking as an indicator of a driver with riskier behaviour. Google is showing that it can also be an indicator of risky road designs. These actually kind of point in opposite directions in terms of the causes of hard braking. The certainly can be used in different ways.
JimBlackwood 3 hours ago
They point in opposite directions because they’re not measuring the same things.
Google is measuring where on the road most hard braking events happen.
Insurers measure who is having the most hard braking events.
rogerrogerr 4 hours ago
(Though for an insurer, it’s the same thing - whether you’re risky because you’re a bad driver or because you drive on poorly constructed roads or around other poor drivers is inconsequential to them)
mschuster91 3 hours ago
Sharlin 4 hours ago
Some road designs are risky because they encourage risky behavior. And "risky" is relative. A good driver should recognize risky road segments and drive even more defensively than normally.
yial 3 hours ago
morkalork an hour ago
alex43578 4 hours ago
A driver who frequents risky roads is a concern to insurers, just as a driver who has risky behaviors.
The cause of hard braking isn’t mutually exclusive: bad driving or bad road design.
jstanley 3 hours ago
buckle8017 3 hours ago
Driving on bad roads is just as bad for insurance as a bad driver is.
pavel_lishin 4 hours ago
My mom had a device installed in her car to get a discount on her insurance, and she was always upset at the hard braking thing - whenever she did it, it was because another car was doing something unsafe that she couldn't control, like pulling out in front of her.
avidiax 4 hours ago
Some amount of that is inevitable, but there is another level of defensive driving where you anticipate poor behavior and arrange that it won't cause an accident.
Have a look at a few dash cam accident videos [1]. There are many maladaptive patterns of behavior, but a frequent one that the average good driver can improve on is limiting speed on two occasions: when approaching a blind spot, and when passing stopped or slow traffic.
That second one gets lots of otherwise good drivers. They seem to think that by limiting their speed vs slow/stopped traffic they'd be encouraging people to dart in front of them. Which is somewhat true. But with limited speed, that's an avoidable or less injurious accident. By gunning it past stopped traffic, you make the accident unavoidable and more serious.
thomasguide 4 hours ago
sigseg1v 4 hours ago
geocrasher 3 hours ago
grog454 4 hours ago
pibaker an hour ago
WarmWash 4 hours ago
If you take a seasoned motorcycle rider and put them in one of those dashcam subs, they'll rip their hair out.
Most people have near zero defensive driving skill, and view someone pulling out in front of them as "nothing I could have done", when the dashcam shows the offending driver showed 5 signs of pulling out ages before the accident occurred.
doubled112 4 hours ago
dghlsakjg 3 hours ago
organsnyder 4 hours ago
RupertSalt 4 hours ago
kube-system 4 hours ago
Drivers often believe that their insurance rates should be based solely on whether they follow driving rules, but the risks to insurance are not isolated to this. Someone can follow every rule perfectly, but if they are involved in an accident they incur costs for their insurance company.
garaetjjte 4 hours ago
infecto 4 hours ago
I hate the warning myself and I use the app the parent is from. I also suspect I am an outlier in not having an accident in 20 years.
It’s this obnoxious audio warning that tells me I had a hard breaking and it’s 9/10 because I stopped at a red light that I would not have made on yellow. And then it sends me tips and reminders about reducing hard breaking events and it’s annoying. I know they have done the analysis but it detects moderate hard breaking which is frustrating. One of those things that I am sure in net is positive but perhaps slices of the population it does not benefit.
amanaplanacanal 4 hours ago
kube-system 4 hours ago
> Simply letting people know that they had a hard braking event is an effective mechanism for behavior change
Has this been studied in isolation? Many of the tools that notify upon hard braking also are used to impose financial penalties for doing so... I suspect people may be reacting to the financial incentives.
mpyne 21 minutes ago
When people learn to do things by reacting to inputs, they learn much better when the input comes soon after the action/inaction they are trying to train, rather than long after. When you can tie specific acts as a driver to a later financial penalty it helps you learn to avoid the specific acts, otherwise you'd stuck having to figure out in three weeks when the bill comes around what you were doing on the date the insurance statement flagged as a hard stop.
timbaboon 4 hours ago
Yep. We work with CMT and we’ve both done extensive testing on this. I think that often people don’t necessarily know what a hard braking event actually means, or how it’s quantified. Giving that realtime feedback helps close that gap in understanding
dghlsakjg 3 hours ago
Anecdotally: I leave the fuel efficiency display as the instrument cluster display on the hybrid that I drive and it significantly changes both my acceleration and braking behavior.
There is a minor financial aspect (price of fuel), but I’m far more interested in seeing if I can get a better “green score” at the end of the drive.
bluGill 4 hours ago
Does it matter why? The important part is getting people to change behavior.
of course if they change such that they don't break hard when needed that is bad, but if the change such that they don't need to break hard in the first place because they slow down in places that are dangerious that is the point.
kube-system 3 hours ago
alwa 4 hours ago
When you modify their braking behavior, is that enough to improve their overall driving behavior? Or do forward collisions and rear-enders make up substantially all of what the driver can control, so training the behaviors to reduce that type of near-miss reduces the driver's overall crash risk? To the point that it's similar to the safest tranche?
Is it that hard braking events are broadly indicative of surprises of lots of sorts, and so it happens that the only way to eliminate them all is to develop a full range of defensive driving habits?
More Goodhart's Law or Serenity Prayer?
toast0 4 hours ago
Regardless of everything else, forward collisions are most likely to have the driver considered at-fault. Seems like reducing those in your insured population would reduce covered losses more than reducing collisions where your insured may not be at fault.
munificent 4 hours ago
How does one not already know that they had a hard braking event? Surely the jamming their foot on the brake pedal and the rapid deceleration would send an even more obvious signal than playing a chime?
infecto 4 hours ago
Have you used one of these apps before? They capture a lot more than emergency stops, what I would classify as the above normal brake effort but not hard braking. Im sure the data exist to set the cutoff but its a lot more than “jam your foot on the pedal braking”.
It’s still out of the norm braking for my style of driver but from what I see on the road, people drive aggressively like this. Especially in the US.
mhb 2 hours ago
mecsred 4 hours ago
Obviously people know, but theres no impulse to introspect on why or how. Knowing that someone else knows you had a hard braking event taps in to our social brains to provide a much stronger response to the event. When we know people are watching we're more likely to try and justify our behaviour.
dghlsakjg 3 hours ago
A lot of people don’t realize that what they consider normal driving is actually aggressive driving by other metrics
zahlman 4 hours ago
> We have apps that monitor driving and we play a tone to indicate that a hard braking event was detected. Simply letting people know that they had a hard braking event is an effective mechanism for behavior change (other companies have similar tech)
... How do people not notice that they are braking hard?
infecto 4 hours ago
Because their definition of hard is not a slam on the pedal braking. It’s definitely out of the normal stopping but it’s not as hard as you might imagine. I could easily see people not realizing this.
Someone1234 4 hours ago
This type of research is highly valuable but too rare; this is generally because of how we view Road Accidents at a core level:
- Road Accidents: "A driver caused this, let's determine who, and find them at fault."
- With Air Accidents: "The system caused this, let's determine which elements came together that ultimately lead to this event."
The first is essentially simplifying a complex series of events into something black and white. Easy to digest. We'll then keep doing it over and over again because we never changed the circumstances.
The second approach is holistic, for example even if the pilot made a mistake, why did they make a mistake, and what can we do to prevent that mistake (e.g. training, culture, etc)? But maybe other elements also played a part like mechanical, software, airport lightning, communications, etc.
I bet everyone reading this knows of a road near them that is an accident hotspot and I bet they can explain WHY it is. I certainly do/can, and I see cops with crashed cars there on a weekly basis. Zero changes have been made to the conditions.
rootusrootus 2 hours ago
An issue of volume, I would guess. If my quickly gathered stats are accurate, there are on the order of 100K commercial flights every day, and 1B drives. So road accidents are expected to be more numerous, and they usually have less impact than an airliner going down. Also - the NTSB does indeed investigate car accidents on occasion, and when they do, they definitely include systemic analysis.
jmkd 19 minutes ago
Against inferential statistics: https://hdl.handle.net/2381/37564
PDF download: https://iase-pub.org/ojs/SERJ/article/download/215/119/726
engelo_b 4 hours ago
this google research is a fascinating pivot from the usual driver-centric data we look at in insurance risk modeling. usually we use hard braking as a proxy for how safe an individual driver is. but using it to identify specific road segments or intersections with bad geometry is huge. it basically flips the script from individual liability to infrastructure-level risk assessment.
infecto 4 hours ago
This is definitely pie in the sky but I dream of a future where you have so many autonomous vehicles all the road that we can not only collect this data but also incentivize the slow turning wheels of government to fix it.
engelo_b 3 hours ago
yeah the interesting part is that the carriers already have most of this data from telematics apps, it's just sitting in corporate silos.
if we could bridge that gap, the economic incentive for municipalities would be massive lower accident rates mean less property damage and fewer expensive liability lawsuits for the city. it's basically a potential safety feedback loop that just needs the right data sharing protocol to actually kick in.
pishpash 3 hours ago
Ok but where is the public Maps overlay for this? Is it available?
engelo_b 3 hours ago
i'd love to see a safety heatmap layer, but the legal hurdles are probably massive. the second google puts a high risk badge on a specific road segment they open themselves up to lawsuits from local businesses or property owners claiming the algorithm is nuking their traffic or property value. it's probably going to stay in the hands of traffic engineers and underwriters for a long time.
jeffbee 2 hours ago
Google is offering this as part of the geospatial platform that they market to governments for huge $$$ so I don't think you are going to get it for free any time soon. Maybe limited access if you have an Earth Engine developer account?
oxag3n 43 minutes ago
Too bad there's no map with such indicators, I'd definitely use it for my route planning, especially in unknown area. I usually know pretty well dangerous parts if I drive there frequently.
In unknown roads/highways I can predict hard bumps/gaps by seeing dark oil spots in the middle of each lane.
delichon 2 hours ago
I'd love to have a danger heat map displayed on a HUD while driving. Say a default green banner that goes red near a hot spot or even animates near a current hazard. Mostly it could use these same stats, but then be strident if anything unpredictable is detected nearby.
stevage an hour ago
Me too, that's a great idea. Or just incorporated into the satnav, better than getting the warning for an upcoming speed camera.
rconti an hour ago
This is a great use of this technology. In aggregate, these hard braking events _do_ tell us about road design issues. They also tell us about problematic drivers, in aggregate.
I'll never use one of these dongles, though, because I don't want my every move second-guessed. There's nothing _inherently_ dangerous about isolated hard braking or cornering or acceleration events. It all depends on context. Am I braking hard to avoid an obstacle or mistake by another driver? Is there someone behind me that's likely to rear-end me, or am I in the middle of a highway in the desert? Did I just replace my brake pads and I'm bedding in the new pads?
I don't want to have to worry about whether I've used up my invisible quota before the algorithm decides I should be moved into a more expensive insurance bracket.
benlivengood an hour ago
I'm really curious what their data looks like at the various racetracks and circuits. Fun fact; most raceways have accurate street-level indicators (including that they are one-way, but sadly they are not the best racing line) on most online maps, and my car did complain to me in its weekly report about a lot of hard turns, quick acceleration, and hard braking with helpful pins on e.g. Laguna Seca or Thunderhill corners.
In theory, the most dangerous turns would probably have higher variance on hard braking data.
kazinator an hour ago
Hard braking could be detected externally; you can tell when vehicles are braking hard from the deceleration and suspension effects, without any surveillance equipment installed in them.
That's not gonna be something Google would research, of course, due to next to no alignment with their interests.
olliepro 4 hours ago
There’s a section of I-15 in Utah’s Salt Lake County which reliably has a crash on weekdays at 6pm. It was unfortunately at a pinch point in the mountains with no good alternate route… very annoying.
In a similar way that Google Maps shows eco routes, it’d be fun for them to show “safest” routes which avoid areas with common crashes. (Not always possible, but valuable knowledge when it is.)
leetrout 4 hours ago
Not surprising but it is nice to have these data streams to explore locations that could potentially be remediated. I think anyone who drives interstates in metro areas would agree cloverleaf interchange are generally terrible with any significant traffic. Add in the general proclivity to drive much higher than the posted speed limit and these become dangerous due to the speed differentials and we've known this for 50 years.
"A 1974 study by Hall and Dickinson showed that speed differences contributed to crashes, primarily rear end and lane change collisions"
Hall, J. W. and L. V. Dickinson. An Operational Evaluation of Truck Speeds on Interstate Highways, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Maryland, February, 1974.
drewda 4 hours ago
What is the actual use of this?
This research team used Google's first-party location data to identify San Jose's Interstate 880/US 101 interchange as a site with statistically extreme amounts of hard braking by Android Auto users.
But you don't need machine learning to know that... San Jose Mercury News readers voted that exact location as the worst interchange in the entire Bay Area in a 2018 reader poll [1]
It's not a lack of knowledge by Caltrans or Santa Clara County's congestion management agency that is keeping that interchange as-is. Rather, it's the physical constraints of a nearby airport (so no room for flyovers), a nearby river (so probably no tunneling), and surrounding private landowners and train tracks.
Leaving aside the specifics of the 880/101 interchange, the Google blog post suggests that they'll use this worst-case scenario on a limited access freeway to inform their future machine-learning analyses of other roads around the country, including ones where presumably there are also pedestrians and cyclists.
No doubt some state departments of transportation will line up to buy these new "insights" from Google (forgetting that they actually already buy similar products from TomTom, Inrix, StreetLight, et al.) [2]
While I genuinely see the value in data-informed decision making for transportation and urban planning, it's not a lack of data that's causing problems at this particular freeway intersection. This blog post is an underbaked advertisement.
[1] https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/13/101-880-ranks-as-bay-...
[2] https://www.tomtom.com/products/traffic-stats/ https://inrix.com/products/ai-traffic/ https://www.streetlightdata.com/traffic-planning/
unbalancedevh 2 hours ago
> What is the actual use of this?
From the article:
"Our analysis of road segments in California and Virginia revealed that the number of segments with observed HBEs was 18 times greater than those with reported crashes. While crash data is notoriously sparse — requiring years to observe a single event on some local roads — HBEs provide a continuous stream of data, effectively filling the gaps in the safety map."
So we don't have to wait until an accident actually occurs before we can identify unsafe roads and improve them.
csours 2 hours ago
Actual use: autonomous vehicles know to be "more careful" here, perhaps to do "Jersey left" turns - right turn and U-Turn or other risk compensation strategies.
I'd love to see them incorporate visual detection of vehicle crash debris as well. There are two intersections in my area that consistently have crash debris like broken window glass and broken plastic parts and license plates from crashes. I know they are dangerous, but I don't know if autonomous vehicles also know that they are dangerous.
pixl97 4 hours ago
>No doubt some state departments of transportation will line up to buy these new "insights" from Google (forgetting that they actually already buy similar products from TomTom, Inrix, StreetLight, et al.) [2]
Google/Apple probably collect a massively larger amount of data than those other companies, putting those other companies at a risk of losing future revenue.
Between Google and Apple pretty much every car in the US is monitored.
drewda 4 hours ago
Yeah, Google and Apple do probably have much more first-party probe data of passenger vehicles. But it really depends on the type of traffic data product. For some use-cases, it's more than sufficient for the vendor to buy probe data from specific types of fleet vehicles (like work trucks).
Where Google/Apple's coverage is quite valuable is for near-real-time speeds for atypical events -- say like yesterday's Super Bowl. But that's not what this blog post is about -- this post is about a well-established pattern that can be identified with historical datasets.
All that to say that vendors sell a wide variety of data products to transportation planners, but just because Google is now entering this niche market doesn't mean they'll be "the best" or even realize what their strengths are.
pishpash 3 hours ago
It does look much more like a revenue play. The data already exists, but not from the conglomorates and not as uniformly formatted.
amanaplanacanal 4 hours ago
Caltrans could lower the speed at that interchange, and use traffic calming to actually get people to drive slower. Good traffic engineering can still make a difference even with the existing physical limitations.
jeffbee 2 hours ago
Absolutely nothing in this research suggests machine learning. All this is saying is that the hard braking events are associated with dangerous road segments that are well-known by other measures (in this case, reported crash rates).
pishpash 3 hours ago
On the interchange in question, they can always redo how the merge is designed in the same space. There is no excuse for that.
pishpash 3 hours ago
Indeed why would you even need this or a poll? The crash statistics already exist. What's the purpose of a proxy predictor unless the label is something too low signal to detect but may become a big issue later. The only such case is a new road that recently opened.
barbazoo 4 hours ago
When we worked at a p2p car sharing company it was well understood what a treasure trove that past accelerometer data was as good input to frequency prediction of a claim resulting from a particular rental.
roflchoppa an hour ago
Dude the fucking 101S/808S connector is atrocious on so many levels.
adrianmonk an hour ago
OK, now that you have this data, give me a "prefer safer routes" option in Google Maps navigation!
While you're at it, give me an option to avoid unprotected left turns and to avoid making a left turn across a busy road where cross traffic does not stop. (But only during heavy traffic; it's fine when nobody is on the road.) Not only are these more dangerous, they're also more stressful and they also introduce annoying variation into my travel time.
stevage an hour ago
I think Lyft already does this for their driver navigation.
cbruns 4 hours ago
How long until my insurance company can figure out my commute route and adjust my rates based on the collective risk of the segments?
HoldOnAMinute 4 hours ago
Or it could suggest a less risky route and offer you a discount in exchange for taking that route instead.
pishpash 3 hours ago
Why can't Gooapple suggest this today?
chaps 4 hours ago
Like another poster said, this is very well known already. It's one of the reasons why municipalities purchase this data from data brokers.