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Prescriptions are a total racket. A good portion of actual medication literally costs a few dollars at most. Then there’s layer upon layer of bloat and bureaucracy that add no value but drive the cost up 10x or more. It’s totally bonkers.

When these Rx cards and Marc Cuban CostPlus drugs came out where you just pay cash and a fraction of the price I thought there must be some catch or scam here. But turns out no, they’re just cutting out all the middleware bloat and selling you the meds at a defensible markup plus their logistics costs. Love what these guys are doing.

The fact that something like that even exists highlights how corrupt and broken the health insurance companies have become. It’s their job to get better prices at scale and yet somehow they manage to sell at prices far worse that Joe Blogs off the street can get with cash.

In many ways the quality of care in the US is far better than what folks get elsewhere, which in part is probably why there isn’t a total patient rebellion, but the US’s challenges are all rooted in massive administrative overhead. If we got rid of that and had a lean system where healthcare providers can do their job without interference there would be plenty of money to go around for amazing care at lower cost.

Health care is so broken that I think it will unbreak itself.

You can eliminate most of the problem by mandating true cost billing by hospitals (get rid of their insurance mandated 500%+ markups to make it look like your insurance does anything at all besides make your care as costly as possible).

As you said, it's oftentimes cheaper to buy drugs without insurance.

The average person would quickly find out that insurance doesn't pay for anything at the hospital (most of the time).

~80% of healthcare spending is already at the tail end, and the state already covers most of that through Medicare and Medicaid.

The bottom ~50% of spenders (healthy people) only spend ~3% in total of healthcare (~$900 per year per person, about 1 month's PREMIUM).

Health insurance is a MASSIVE tax on the bottom ~3% of spenders (~50% of the population), when the state ALREADY covers the vast majority of people that need covered for tail end expenses.

Think about this: the MEDIAN adult in the US pays <$1k in personal income tax! Yearly health care premiums (that do nothing) are 3x that! 75%+ of the median person's true tax is going to health insurance that does NOTHING for them.

We already have the European model. Health insurance as it is is a tax. It just could not be designed to function more poorly than it does for the average healthy worker.

It benefits literally no one besides the health insurance industry which does not employ that many people, and is not strategically important for national security.

If the state completely covered the tail, and we had true billing at hospitals, almost no one would need or want insurance besides people that already have it through Medicare and Medicaid.

Another example, I needed to rent some medical equipment which was pretty inexpensive. But for some unfathomable reason the insurance required that if that was rented, I also had to rent some other equipment that was like 20x as expensive that I didn't need at all. As well as purchase some disposable stuff, that I would not use, and could not be returned or used by someone else. And paying for just the things I actually needed myself without insurance wasn't an option.

try being diabetic ugh. I am constantly grinding against made up barriers. 150$ in strips and about 500-700$ for insulin. Meanwhile I meet a friend and he's just buying the base insulin from walmart for about 50$ a vial.

This always baffles me.

There’s so much rampant profiteering in the US healthcare system it’s unbelievable. Other countries look at it from afar in utter disbelief. I’m glad I had no serious health problems when I lived there 25 years ago (and I had health insurance via my employer).

In the UK prescriptions are effectively capped at about USD125 per year:

https://www.nhsbsa.nhs.uk/help-nhs-prescription-costs/nhs-pr...

I recently collected 4 prescriptions from my local pharmacy (3 for temporary conditions, the other one was ADHD meds which I’ll be on for the foreseeable future) and the pharmacy didn’t even want to see proof of my prepayment certificate, I just said I had one and they ticked the relevant box and handed me the prescriptions.

(The implication is that the NHS will check this and come after me if I was lying.)

Don’t get me wrong, there’s lots wrong with the UK healthcare system but the access to regular medication has very few barriers.

If you can pay cash without insurance, then you don't need the insurance.

Insurance is (should be) addressing the risk of unexpected expenses that you cannot afford. Not predictable, small expenses that everyone has.

Oh you must have United Healthcare. Yeah they do this with IVF drugs too, and I’m sure with chemotherapy drugs. Plus it all has to be shipped so if you’re mid-cycle and the doctor orders a different medication you either waste the benefits or pay out of pocket. And they structure all their pricing so the fertility benefit covers a cycle but the medications aren’t fully covered so you pay out of pocket in medication that’s 3-4x as expensive as the cash price would be at a pharmacy like Alto.

I pay cash for a medication because the insurance won't pay for the 90 day supply and it's a hassle to deal with it every month. It's $70 for me to pay for 90 days out of pocket versus paying a $20 deductible each month. I'm only paying $10 extra to avoid the hassle. Worth it.

Free idea: AI-powered "agent" that fights health insurance and medical bills for you.

My Boomer mother has a mild case of shingles. Her health insurance will only pay for an expensive monthly injection. She tried it, but doesn't want it, as she says the side-effects are worse than the shingles. She prefers to apply a cream when she experiences a flare up - maybe, twice per year. Well, her insurance won't pay for the prescription cream; they keep insisting on the monthly injection. She was told if she insists on the cream, she needs to buy it on her own - cost, around $150. Thankfully, we live not far from Mexico, where I can purchase the exact same cream for around $7.

So, it seems the solution to the high cost of prescription drugs in the US is to live near a border. LOL

My new job has some kind of insurance add-on which is an entire company of people with the express purpose of negotiating with your primary insurance to get specialty medication paid for.

Sticker price on my partner's medication is $10k/mo. Insurance alone refused to pay anything. This third party negotiator managed to get insurance to pay some, the manufacturer to discount it, and a "copay card" with several thousand dollars preloaded appeared to pay the rest.

We ended up paying zero out of pocket for the medication but it took two weeks of thrice-daily phone calls with various entities.

The very notion that an entire company can exist and sustain itself solely on negotiating with your insurance provider on your behalf is utter insanity. I've heard horror stories about communist bureaucracy from Soviet-occupied European countries, but I don't think even the USSR can compete with the modern American healthcare bureaucracy. It's outrageous and unconscionable.

I worked in healthcare start-ups for many years and the main problem is mis-aligned incentives.

The #1 thing we need to do is make it illegal for your healthcare to be tied to your employment. We can still have your employer provide a X% or $Y to an HSA account that the employee can buy health coverage wherever they like. (I'm not optimistic that this will ever happen politically)

The issue today is that NOT healing you makes everyone more money, like a LOT more. There is no incentive for anyone to help people get healthy just to have a different insurance company benefit from the decreased claims.

This is also the only way forward to value based care (for primary) where doctors (providers et al) can take on the risk/reward. They get some amount (say $1K ??) per year and they keep it and submit no claims. However, if there costs go above, they eat it loss. Now the doctor and the insurance company (payer) are all incentivized to get and keep people healthy.

I am less interested in the quantitative analysis, but the qualitative analysis. Why, culturally, has the US shot itself in the foot in this way?

> And I think part of the answer is that in most cases, individuals and families themselves must allocate resources they control to make this happen.

Assuming uniquely American selfishness got us in this mess, I don't buy that rugged individualism is the route out. You'll just get that classic pattern of those with enough resources to manage criticizing the resource management of those with too few resources to learn to manage. That just further corrodes solidarity.

The reason you tell several different people why you are there is because that is important. if a system doesn't they need to start!

people often remember things when asked latter. this gives more opportunity to ask about everything you care about even if you forget the first time.

people sonetimes grab the wrong chart. This helps ensure that they check for things that matter to you and not someone else - your history is on the chart if they are watching you for something weird in you history this is important.

One key problem appears as misaligned ("perverse") incentives. But it has to be that because its essentially impossible for an average person to purchase health care in the moderately informed and choice-filled fashion that I can purchase a vacuum cleaner.

Of course, another key problem is trying to divide distinct parts of health care into distinct costs. Everyone benefits from having a good quality hospital in their area and so assigning a health care provider's cost to just a given patient and then trying to reduce the patient's cost is quite irrational.

Essentially, you have a public good that the state and private interests are trying to make into a public good. A lot of profit comes from this but little good for the patients.

And yet it is still vastly more inaccessible and inefficient than other countries where the same holds. There is a lot that could be learned from other countries. So it's good to see that this repo does so.

> The question we ought to ask is how we can buy better health outcomes for people

spend more money. you DO live in the greatest country on the planet, surely if an american citizen cannot raise the funds for healthcare, in what country can you expect to?

> Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which is a point to consider.

Yet we're ok with spending trillions on AI to eliminate jobs everywhere, including healthcare.

I don't think that's the reason.

Personally I'm of the opinion the reason it isn't being solved, is because the people whose job it would be to solve it get to keep their jobs due to donations from pharma and insurance companies.

> The time burden on physicians is staggering — estimated at $68,000 per physician per year spent dealing with billing-related administrative matters

Having had my share in the administrative part of the medical field, that figure is most probably somewhat misleading. Every time you deal with billing you are bound to deal with granularity. On one extreme you could bill per case, on the other extreme you can count the paperclips used. It could seem at the first glance that the more you move towards the latter, the more time has to be spent by someone to somehow eventually form the invoice.

However, this surface-level conclusion misses the fact that patient care does not start and stop at the the operating room door. Some processes mandate transparency/traceability and thus documenting what's being done and used is part of the process anyway. [edit: the final deliverables are not a treated patient, but rather a treated patient and documentation complete with medicine authorizations / prescriptions (including for drugs used internally), sick-leave certificates, etc.]. That data is then effectively reused for billing, with minimal overhead hopefully. Yes, there's a lot of room for improvement and automatization, but activities not directly related to active care make up a sizable portion of the time.

Those figures are consistent with what Issue #5 (still a couple weeks out) of this series computes from CMS NHE 2023 data and OECD health statistics. The 10-peer OECD average lands at $884 per capita, putting the US at 5.6x. Scaled to 335M people, that's $1.37T in excess admin annually.

The Woolhandler/Himmelstein 2020 figure ($812B) updates to $1.13-1.66T in 2023 dollars when adjusted for healthcare inflation. The CMS narrow admin estimate ($410B) plus CAP's billing complexity analysis ($496B) gives a $906B floor. Those three methodologies agree on the floor, disagree on the ceiling. Issue #5 covers all three and explains why the range is so wide. Coming soon.

> Administrative spending accounts for between 15% and 30% of total medical spending

Healthcare is nearly 20% of GDP (and growing), so administration is 3%-6% of the US economy!

> Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which is a point to consider.

Why not simply hire them to do something that isn't pointless - like dig ditches or clean garbage

Isn't this true across other sectors as well? NYC DOE spends $42,000 per child on education ~half of that is administration costs.

https://apps.schools.nyc/dsbpo/sbag/default.aspx?DDBSSS_INPU...

>Last year this podcast said that nobody wants to solve this because solving it is going to eliminate (IIRC) hundreds of thousands of jobs.

That's the reason why a lot of inefficiencies are kept in countries around the world: it keeps people employed and moves money through the economy. If broken things were suddenly to be made efficient overnight, the government wouldn't be able deal with masses of angry people/voters suddenly out of a job.

I witnessed this devolution with my GF. She's a medical provider in CA that, since the mid-90's, got her funding from a state agency. She met with the agency once per quarter, reviewed her funding claims, worked out any discrepancies one-on-one, in-person with her representative. Worked great. Then private insurance muscled their way in. It's been a bureaucratic nightmare ever since. She had to hire a full-time staffer just to handle all the insurance BS. She never needed that before private insurance.

The nightmare isn't just for her; it's also for her patients. She now spends almost as much time walking her patients through the insurance bureaucracy than she spends on actual treatment. And it's so sad because her patients are so desperate (parents of extremely sick children), but often get nothing but bureaucratic run-around from their private insurers.

So yeah, it's been a lose-lose situation since private insurance took over.

Middle men in processes add overhead, but on various analyses I've seen.. zeroing all middleman (insurance, PBM, etc) out still leaves us as far more expensive than the rest of the rich world.

One thing which is not terribly popular to point out is that at least on procedure pricing - wages are way way higher here. Some of that is that education is far more expensive so then we need to pay very well to pay that down. Also we have a cartel that limits the number of medical graduates.

NYC have been striking and to quote the union-friendly NYT "The three hospital systems affected by the strike said their nurses on average make about $160,000 a year and are seeking raises that could propel nurses’ salaries on average past $200,000, according to the hospitals."

By comparison UK pays nurses like US blue state fast food workers. Per google - "Average nurse salaries in London are the highest in the UK, generally ranging from £37,000 to £55,000 per year." Note NYC minimum wage is at $17/hr though many hospitality workers in the $20s, with a renewed Mamdani push to $30/hr minimum.

And US tax rates at these 3-4x higher compensation levels are same/lower than the UK..

Then add Americans having generally unhealthier lifestyles, being more litigious requiring higher malpractice insurance, etc..

Incomes are dramatically higher in the US than in Japan. Their economy has imploded so badly due to debt + currency destruction that they're now just barely above Lithuania (which has come a long ways of course) on economic output per capita.

Japan is no longer a primary economic power and their (perpetually falling) purchasing power + incomes represent that.

US GDP per capita is estimated at $92,000 for 2026. Norway is $96,000 for comparison. 340 million people vs one of the world's richest nations at 5 million people. The UK is $60k, and Japan is a mere $36k.

Read that again. US GDP per capita will soon be 3x that of Japan.

Doing a direct comparison of healthcare costs is silly accordingly. At a minimum you need to 2x to account for the drastically higher US incomes vs Japan, and at least 50% higher vs the UK.

What do you see as the bad part of this? That the user is trying to farm points by copying patterns of upvote-winning users, or that there's a flood of inauthentic new users? Genuinely asking.

Yeah, day old account too.

> The US passed laws meant to limit marketing and overhead that tied insurers economics to the size of the overall medical bill... which means as healthcare spending rises, the dollars they’re allowed to retain can rise too, which basically means they're incentivized to drive costs up rather than down.

Yes, this is an important piece of the puzzle. The "medical loss ratio" for large insurers (the kind we all know and love) is set to 85%. So they can keep up to 15% of their revenue as profit.

As you said, if total spending goes up, they get 15% of a larger number.

So same as realtors and most other brokers.

It's almost as if the insurance companies wrote those regulations. The same ones that required everyone to purchase their product and implemented government subsidies to pay them. Legitimately no way anything other than price increases and insurance profits could happen.

The 9.2% figure is pharma's direct share of NHE, but drugs are a net-positive externality. Cheap statins can stave off cardiac surgeries, GLP-1 can stave off bariatric surgeries, etc. It's ridiculous to conclude we would only save 9.2% on costs--this is not zero-sum.

No comment on drug pricing and its incentives, the existence of America's prescription drug markets drives the new innovative drugs that the rest of the world picks up for cheap.

Even if it's 10% in aggregate it could be much higher for individuals and families that are screwed over by drug pricing.

But anyway we really do need to go after providers and end the racket that is employer provided health insurance.

The US also has GDP per capita of $90k and Japan has a GDP per capita of ~ $35k.

Put another way, in both countries a hip replacement surgery is almost exactly 1/8 of someone's per capita GDP.

But also age-related care is by far the largest share of medical care costs, and Japan has no lack of very old people. Being unhealthy also often reduces the amount of procedures someone is eligible to receive. Despite the blame people throw on unhealthy people for medical costs, they ironically often cost less because of the reduced care and lower lifespan which cuts out a significant amount of age-related healthcare costs. One could argue dieing at 60 instead of 90 is a big loss socially and personally, but overall financially it is a benefit.

Japan has an age fraud problem which inflates its life expectancy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sogen_Kato

"The discovery of Kato's remains sparked a search for other missing centenarians lost due to poor recordkeeping by officials. A study following the discovery of Kato's remains found that police did not know if 234,354 people over the age of 100 were still alive".

> The difference in life expectancy will be influenced by multiple factors and may have more to do with diet and lifestyle than with healthcare

Less than 5% of Japanese are obese (BMI >30) compared with 36% of Americans, additionally 1 in 10 Americans are severely obese (BMI>35) whereas the number in Japan is negligible.

https://theworlddata.com/us-obesity-rate-compared-to-other-c...

I suspect you would see the exact same trend comparing Japan and the U.S. in transit, education, and many other services. The U.S. spends more per capita to get less.

Japan also has the "Metabo Law" (aka fat tax). Do you think Americans would go for that?

The US has a high variance population. Aggregating the US into a single mean or median for that matter is a fool's errand.

Japanese Americans have a slightly higher life expectancy in the US (87 years) vs Japanese living in Japan (85 years).

Try seeing a doctor in Japan as a foreigner. Just a simple consult costs $300 USD or so, and it goes up from there. It's actually a rather expensive system.

The Japanese system is amazing. Cheap drugs, cheap dentistry, no wait times and reimbursements for all kinds of things (government covered more than 100% of childbirth cost - yes we got more back than we paid). But the best part IMO is the emphasis on preventative medicine. My wife and I get annual checkups which cover a whole range of things including screening for various kinds of cancer.

It "may be other than health care" but most (all?) other modern nations on multiple continents in multiple cultures spend less percent GDP on healthcare with longer life expectancy than the US

> Japan also spends less per capita than the UK, France or Germany

These have to be purchasing power adjusted.

We in Germany copied a lot of the stupid stuff from America (including the stupid billing system for inpatient stays), so it's not that surprising that our system is also bad value for money.

PS: Outcomes here are not worse than those of rich people in the US, because I know some idiots will claim this to cope

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...

We already have multiple forms of socialized medicine, it isn’t perfect. Burning our current system down and shoving them all into Medicare and the VA system would kill thousands or more people, healthcare needs to be operational 24/7/365.

I think a gradual move to single payer is the way, but even if you could get that passed as legislation, which you can’t due to a rigged senate balance, and not struck down by SCOTUS, you’d need 10 years to begin the changeover. It’s really that massive of a project.

But it won’t happen with the current solidifying conservative governmental systems. Say hello to your future, it’s now.

>Nothing about the current state of the healthcare system makes much sense to anyone that tries to peel back the onion.

I'd offer a slight tweak. None makes sense in a vacuum or solely considering efficiency. It all makes sense seeing the evolution over time and the misaligned incentives.

> Medicare probably lays too little.

What's wild, is that at least in the slice of healthcare I'm in, Medicare is one of our best most reliable payors. In fact, in some cases, our contracts with private insurers have them promise to pay at least 80-85% of what Medicare would reimburse us.

The other benefit with Medicare is that they just give us a lump sum of money and let us do what we want with it as long as we get good outcomes. Which means we don't have to fight for every visit we make to the patient. And they base it off of a public formula that we have access to (unlike with the private insurers).

Sure you’re not thinking of Medicaid? Medicare was generally pretty good for reimbursement. When my wife treated Medicaid patients, she often lost money on the cost of the supplies used to treat them, let alone rent and paying the staff etc etc. Most doctors who see Medicaid patients do it as basically pro bono. Some figured out how to game the system with economies of scale but it’s nearly impossible do do and maintain a decent standard of care.

But Medi care was right with the commercial insurers on reimbursement.

Doctors in Canada also bill the government for everything they do but I've never felt pressured for procedures by my doctor. Don't kid yourself, it's the insurance companies.

Thank you for doing this analysis! I'd suggest adding some charts to better represent some of the issues you've found!

Maybe if we didn't have enormously expensive healthcare that is tried to our employers the payouts would need to be so huge. If I'm injured by medical malpractice and can't work I'm going to need a lot of money to make me whole in the US, even more so if I need additional medical treatment.

The doctor that delivered my middle child said he had to deliver three babies a week just to cover insurance, and he had never had a case against him in his decades of practice.

In a vacuum sure. But insurance companies operate the only part of the healthcare system that is moderately competitive. In the end employers are the ones largely paying and they are professional negotiators enough to put price pressure on insurance plans. 20% of $0 is $0.

As such, as light of an incentive it is - it’s the only party in the entire system that is incentivized in any way whatsoever to keep costs down.

Insurance providers also rarely operate at the full freight 20% either way though. So they are at least at this time incentivized to control costs at some level since every dollar saved is a dollar added to the profit line. Otherwise they would not be known for denying claims so often.

This is ignoring a whole lot of very important complexities as well - such as self funded insurance plans that most major companies utilize. There the insurance company is simply a plan administrator getting paid the same either way.

It’s one of those tropes that has a source of truth behind it but the actual reality is far less satisfying of an answer. Makes for great sound bites and ability to shut down further thought on the subject though. The uncomfortable truth is that there is no simple fix and no one bad actor that is the cause of all the insanity.

This is the same problem with cost-plus contracts in the military. In theory, capping profit is meant to reduce profiteering. But in practice, if your profit is fixed at 6% of the cost to built a jet fighter then you're incentivized to make that jet fighter as expensive as possible. The way to maximize profit under a cost-plus regime is to maximize the cost.

It's a bit more complicated than that. First, most large health plans regulated under the Affordable Care Act are actually subject to an 85% minimum medical loss ratio. Some of the larger payers which also have their own providers as employees within the same parent corporation are able to shift money around with internal pricing agreements so that they make larger profits on the care delivery side.

But at the same time, the business is still pretty competitive with the employers and consumers who purchase policies or rent networks being price sensitive. Employers will switch carriers to get a significant cost savings so that holds down prices (and carrier profits) to an extent. Most large employers (and unions) are now self-funded so the "insurance" company isn't actually bearing much risk, they just set up a provider network and process the claims.

Most doctors are almost completely ignorant about the broader issues of healthcare financing and medical economics so take anything you hear from your friends with a grain of salt. (And to be fair, it's not something we should expect them to be experts in.)

You can really just say anything and get upvoted on this website.

If this were true then private insurers would have paid comparable rates to Medicare prior to the ACA passing, and that's just not the case. This fact has been a fixture of the US healthcare system since the creation of Medicare.

So I happen to be in Costa Rica for the month. Just like every other 1st world country, it has managed to have universal health care that is better and cheaper without private insurance.

Even if you do get private insurance for quicker access, it’s still much cheaper than the US.

I just spoke to someone who flew down here to save $30K on dental work.

The problem isn’t the ACA, it’s the ass backwards American health care system. I was at a meetup of American ex-pats here and half of them said they established residency here to join CAJA - the health care system

This isn't the whole story. There's a lot of "legal" self-dealing going on where insurance companies essentially own providers and then pay the providers which allows the insurance companies to circumvent the medical loss ratios.

More here:

https://healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/self-dealing-ille...

There are other structural issues at work that you see across US government procurement generally, Medicare just being one example.

The unit costs of doing business with the US government are higher than with private companies even after accounting for economies of scale. The US government also requires that they pay the lowest price. Consequently, unit economics are usually worse when dealing with the government than when dealing with private companies.

The maths often don't math but the law doesn't care. Most inexplicable and bizarre pricing you see related to government procurement are structural tricks vendors use to indirectly fix the unit economics across their customers while technically staying compliant with bad regulations. Everyone else who is not the government is collateral damage of that byzantine theater.

Ideally, we would all drop the pretense that the US government deserves the lowest price just because they are very large, instead letting it reflect the true overhead cost.

Most insurance is funded by employers who would switch insurers if they feel they're getting screwed by them.

> So insurance companies spend more so they can collect higher premiums.

This part is still true though. Insurers want you to consume more healthcare, so they'll happily pay for your chiropractor, acupuncturist, acne treatment, and Chanel gift bag [1]. Patients are happy with their benefits. Employers are happy with increasing employee retention in a tax advantaged way. Insurers are happy with the profit. Of course, you aren't going to see much health improvement from this though.

[1] https://nypost.com/2024/07/25/lifestyle/nyc-hospital-bills-3...

These limits don’t apply to self-funded programs that are administered by big insurance companies (most large employers’ plans, then) or plans less than two years old (whether there are measures in place to prevent simply rotating plans often to exploit this, I do not know)

That's not why prices continue to increase. They can't just let prices skyrocket to pad their pockets. If they try, government regulators will block premium hikes, regular people will ditch them for cheaper competitors, and big businesses that pay premiums from cash will fire them for not keeping medical bills lower.

This is correct, but neglects the compounding effect.

Insurers are also adding some %+ increase on premiums every year, which is taken as a % of their yearly spend, ie 2-3%.

ie (1+inflation)^N*(base_prem+overpay_prem_increase) = new_premium. The compounding of $ returned is pretty big on this.

That being said underwriting risk, under the law and avoiding correlated risks, is tough.

This seems like we need similar price caps for healthcare providers, medical equipment providers, pharmaceuticals, etc. Done just in isolation for 1 part of the healthcare industry results in this obvious bad effect.

Removing the rule wouldn't help things.

You've identified a real issue with cost-plus pricing. But there's more to it than that. Commercial insurers have to pay more than Medicare, for the very simple reason that Medicare's pricing terms are that they get a discount beyond whatever the lowest price is that you charge anyone for the same thing.

(Is it a 60% discount? No; a 150% margin has to be explained in other ways. But the phenomenon is real and important.)

This would only hold empirically if prior to the ACA, commercial insurers did not pay more.

> The people who design easily gameable systems belong in the lowest circle of hell.

-- Charlie Munger

I was under the impression that some companies that provide insurance also provide healthcare?

The problem is the market isn’t competitive due to hidden pricing and also anti competitive aspects like insurance. The supply of doctors is itself artificially low. There is a lot more regulation needed than something as simple as Obamacare.

Managed risk pools should not be for profit.

> Obamacare requiring 80% of the money they collect to be spent,

did they not write unit tests for this when it was proposed to catch obvious subversions like you mentioned.

Several doctor friends told me your doctor friends aren't real.

My understanding is that there are a number of reasons why commercial insurance companies pay more. A big one is that Medicare has enormous pricing power because people on Medicare are a huge segment of the population and also the segment that consumes the most healthcare services. Your local healthcare system can't NOT take Medicare. They're effectively stuck with the reimbursement rates that Medicare sets. On the other hand, healthcare systems have a ton of power in their local markets. A healthcare system can afford to not be in network for a particular insurer, but if that insurer loses access to the biggest healthcare system in a particular market, it can be devastating for them. A major employer is not going to be happy if their executives have to all change doctors because the big local hospital system is no longer in network.

Ding Ding Ding. We have the correct answer. And this was a predicted consequence of that profit cap.

You mean that there is a rule which prevents for-profit companies offering personal health insurance from pocketing more than 20% of revenue?

Those poor, benighted shareholders. What a socialist hellscape.

This. It's hard to believe that the Obama team could have been this financially incompetent.

I remember consulting for a healthcare company in .... 2003. Very short assignment so I never got deep into it, but anyways my consulting company made me read up an in house guide about ALR and MLR (Administrative or Medical Loss Ratios). Obamacare or not, such constraints already exists. Maybe they varied by state, maybe there were other loopholes such as not supporting pre-existing conditions, but IIRC there were restraints on pure profits, so even then the same perverse incentives existed. More revenue you can get more profits.

I am going by very old memory of a few days/weeks of work, but it will be good for a medical system historian to chime in.

We rarely discuss the primary source of health care cost differences in the United States -- US doctors get paid a lot more than elsewhere. I haven't seen a credible proposal to address that. Most of the salary difference can be blamed on deliberately created shortages of doctors in many specialities. Not enough medical school slots (horror stories among my kid's friends of not getting accepted) and then also shortages of residencies that allow foreign trained doctors to work in the US. The only change in recent memory is replacing some primary care physician services with nurse practitioners.

Life expectancy is not a useful health care system comparison because the primary factors that cause divergences between developed countries aren't based in the health system --- they're things like traffic accidents, homicides, drug overdoses, and suicide. Yes, CVD will appear in that list of factors, but it's noisy; despite having structurally the same health care system, states in New England will have Scandinavian CVD outcomes while southern states (some of whom actually do a better job than New England at making care available) have developing-nation CVD outcomes.

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Insurers are only allowed to keep a % as profits. Higher spending increases the absolute amount of profit that can be retained.

Having worked in medicine, I agree about providers. People who probably got in it to help people burn out immediately and become like the rest of us looking for the best paycheck with a tolerable workplace.

Insurance companies make plenty of money though. Cigna makes $7-8B per year and pays a decent dividend.

They add an entire layer of make work and waste just for existing.

> health insurers...'re on your team and benefit from lower prices just as much as you do

You're missing a very, very, very important piece here.

Which is that the lowest price of all is to deny treatment entirely.

They are not on your team, they are the opposite team. Their revenue is basically fixed, at the level of your premiums. But the more health care they pay for you to receive, the less profit they make. That's just arithmetic.

This is why there are so many horror stories of people being denied necessary treatment, or having to fight for months and years to get their treatment actually paid for. Insurance providers are incentivized to do their absolute best at taking your money and then not paying for care, through every sort of technicality and "mistake" and arbitrary judgment and limit they can come up with.

If health insurers are on my team why do they blatantly lie about their network coverage to me? Why do they list providers as in-network, when the providers consider themselves out of network?

Why aren't the executives of these insurers shilling ghost networks not in prison for mail fraud?

Mark Cuban is at it. I doubt the Uber trick would work. Because as with banks, innovative and more efficient businesses get bought out. Or engage in the racket once they make it.

Or we could adopt universal healthcare like every other developed nation, pay less, and have a healthier nation?

1965 was 61 years ago. Are you saying you yourself had significant experiences with the pre-1965 healthcare system?

Chicken barter, presumably

This! I flew from Madrid to SF last year and I can't begin to describe the difference in the quality of food. The scale of agricultural industrialization is terrifying - I wish you luck but I don't think anything short of this becoming a major campaign issue will help you.

All payer is really the most viable policy direction to save the US from medical bankruptcy.

Although I'd be happy to see this insanity die, I don't understand how anyone thinks this is going to "complete its path." Honest question. Can someone describe what that end consists of?

Capitalism =\= free-market

We have crony capitalism in the US, healthcare is one of the easiest areas to see it.

Free-market is the illusive perfect sphere. Most markets are oval or amoeba shaped. Rarely can the US achieve a true free market in any industry, since money pours into politics and corrupts the laws and regulations.

> Capitalism (when there is true competition) brings down costs pretty universally.

"True competition" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. There are many conditions that must be true for prices to go down.

Australia and the US have similarly higher obesity rates. As you can see in the article, their system is simply just inefficient (arguably, by design)

As an American, I think most of my countrymen's arguments on the subject resemble something like "learned helplessness". The "healthcare system" is craptasm of kludges that each partly counter the fundamental irrationality of rapacious private healthcare but introduce their own idiocy. So the arguments and "ideas" involve this already dumb measure needs to be changed in that half-assed fashion. A few election cycles ago, an old woman was quoted saying "get the government out of my medicare [medicare is a state program, for foreigners trying to understand this stuff]"

One example of this calculation is QALYs (Quality Adjusted Life Years) which is used in the UK to determine what drugs are worthwhile: https://www.nice.org.uk/news/articles/changes-to-nice-s-cost...

Kinda insane no one else is talking about this.

The entire repo reeks of a "Write an extensive analysis comparing the american and japanese medical care systems" prompt.

Not saying all the findings are invalid, but most of them are just the LLM trying to justify it, like the life expectancy one.

Probably so. The table heading “Key Finding” smells rankly of LLM, plus the massive overconfidence that they’ve single-handedly figured out the problem with American healthcare with a little data science that only an LLM or a schizophrenic could be capable of (I haven’t read anything beyond the first part of the README because I don’t waste my time with slop, but I’m assuming they’re ignoring the incentive structures which encourage the system to stay this way), plus the simple fact that they call out a completely meaningless $3T gap that doesn’t account for population difference at all. It’s so strange because they mention the per capita difference right before that. That’s the number that matters. But still they go on and say $3T gap, and even measure the issues in terms of a percentage of that $3T gap. It’s nonsensical, right? I’m really tired of this.

In the Netherlands dental service prices are set by the government [1]. Under 18 are universally covered by basic health insurance; for adults average dental for regular work + emergency is 30/month.

[1] https://puc.overheid.nl/nza/doc/PUC_789284_22/1/

Hospitals are forced to publish price lists (charge master).

https://www.cms.gov/priorities/key-initiatives/hospital-pric...

But at a consumer level it's still quite difficult to predict what your total out-of-pocket expense will be for the same course of treatment at two different facilities.

Back to pre-existing conditions eh?

Yeah no thanks, let’s do the tried and true universal healthcare that literally every else does. They get better results AND it’s cheaper. We’re literally paying more for something worse.

Capitalism doesn’t work well for goods with inelastic demand. Every other developed country understands this and has a nationalized system. The only reason we don’t have universal healthcare is basically unlucky flukes.

No, it pays for ticket-clipping middle-men and political corruption.

No, this is just what pays big dividends to useless managers.

But USA isn't the richest country on earth yet why do they spend the most?

Edit: I recognize that post now, he uses a special metric "actual individual consumption", which adds healthcare consumed by people as income. So the more expensive healthcare is, the more "actual individual consumption" you will have in the country. That is not the normal GDP metric, but using that special metric USA is on top since healthcare consumed there is so expensive.

My personal experience is that people in the US feel much more entitled to consume medical services than people in the country I came from (UK). They are richer, but there's a cultural difference too.

> If it were fully socialist you would have long wait lists but it would be free and there would be one payer.

That is a crazy thing to say. Not saying that it can't be true, but a socialist system doesn't mean automatically long wait lists.

Waitlists are a function of funding, not a direct abstract consequence of socialism. Countries with single payer that have adequate funding - with single payments from taxes that are hugely lower per capita than the US system - do not have long wait lists.

As for walking away - it's hard to do that if you're dying or unconscious.

And of course corporate capitalism always collapses to cartels and monopolies.

The idea that a free market optimised for consumer competition is a mythology, not a reality.

Markets compete for shareholder returns, not customer satisfaction. Customers are only ever a convenient source of profit with inconvenient expectations of service quality and cost.

>If it were fully socialist you would have long wait lists but it would be free [....]

No. Wouldn't wait times are dictated by supply (doctors) and demand (patients), not the political system?

Also, commercial insurers are essentially cross-subsidizing Medicare: the higher revenue from commercial insurers is partly why Medicare can be paid less. Similar dynamics exist with drug prices: the high US cost is a cross-subsidy to other countries. Maybe this is good (someone's got to fund R&D), maybe this is bad (it's a net wealth transfer to the elderly), but it's an important part of the dynamic either way.

Thanks for the meta-analysis reference. The 141-259% range tracks with what I see in the HCRIS data. The variance across hospitals is enormous — even within the same bed-size category, the P75/P25 ratio for cost-to-charge is 2.5-3.4x. Hospitals in the same peer group are charging wildly different amounts for equivalent services. All the scripts are in the repo if you want to dig into the hospital-level data: github.com/rexrodeo/american-healthcare-conundrum

Look at hearing aids. 50,000% markup or higher, even up in the 70k% range in some examples. Old people don't know what to be skeptical of, or at least haven't been nearly skeptical enough, and some industries are getting away with terrible exploitation, all blessed and sanctioned by the FDA.

Agreed. As a spouse of a specialist doctor in the US, average folks don't include doctors when they blame the exorbitant prices of the US healthcare. Sure, big pharma, insurance companies, hospital admins and everyone in between play a part in this big profit-making machine.

But doctors (a lot of them, not all) are complicit in this healthcare complex. American Medical Association is one of the top lobbying groups in D.C. They gate-keep the production of US doctors artificially low by making the candidates go through longer years of education (4 years of college before another 4 years of med school is an overkill for most doctors) compared to other developed nations, resulting in high compensations for doctors AND longer wait-time for patients (due to doctor shortage). They also put up regulation barriers and it requires a lot of certification and exams to become a doctor, so whoever becomes a doctor has the best interest to keep the system (status quo) going.

Average US doctor gets paid a lot more than their counterparts in other developed nations.

Why? I’m in favor of reform and making our system more like other developed nations. But single payer isn’t the only way it’s done, not even the most common way.

I think this is a political and economic problem rather than a technological one.

I cannot think of a more important skill than surgery to continue training humans to do and to be wary of AI robotics replacing. Sure, some surgeries could likely be automated, but the entire point of specialist surgeons is to make choices and act in a timely manner in ambiguous situations with extremely high stakes.

What happens when the robot messes up? What happens when the internet is down, or the hospital is operating under abnormal circumstances? How do you teach, train, and collaborate with human medical workers and caregivers in a world where surgeons have been replaced by robots?

Most of the excess costs for healthcare and surgery aren't the humans doing the work. I think there's a lot of other areas we can optimize first, chief among those in healthcare being the cost structure around private businesses and insurers bloating the bill with administrative costs. There's a reason every other developed nation has a single-payer healthcare system and better outcomes, and I don't think an AI breakthrough is the only plausible solution to improving costs in the US. In fact, under the current system, an AI breakthrough in medicine would likely hurt the workforce more than it would improve costs.

2/3 of the costs are already wasted. Even if your robot is cheaper, the provider will hire more lawyers, admins, facilities staff, etc to keep the budget growing. Prices have been going up 15% yoy for 20 years do you think that will stop?