A new way to measure poverty shows the US falling behind Europe (euronews.com)
75 points by _DeadFred_ 2 hours ago
Aurornis 42 minutes ago
The new measure:
> As of 2025, the time needed to earn $1 is 63 minutes in the US.
Confused, I clicked one of the links and tried to understand. Found this:
> The time to get $1 refers to a day of life for anyone at any age and in any circumstance, not just the hours worked by someone with a job.
Clicking another link took me to the abstract at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4785458 but that didn't answer any questions either.
I can't find anything really of substance in this, other than someone trying to redefine a lot of terms in confusing ways
$1 every 63 minutes would be $8343/year. I cannot think of any way to reconcile that with the US average household income or any other related figure.
akamaka 24 minutes ago
I did the same math. The closest guess I have is that it is derived from the poverty line for a family of four, $32150 (which divided by four is $8037).
tovej 19 minutes ago
That's because it is the average of the "time to earn 1$" per individual.
So let's say you're Elon Musk and it takes you a negligible enough time to do this that we can say that t_Elon = 0.
Now say you are way below the poverty line and earn 6000$/year. This means t_Poor = 87 mins.
If we average 80 t_Poor and 20 t_Elon we find we get 0.8 x 87 mins = 67 mins. Even when the average income in this case would be 0.2 x income_Elon. Something like 7 billion $/year.
I hope this shows why you can't just take the inverse to get the average income. The only way that was true was if everyone earned the exact same income.
Why is this a better metric?
The average income is biased towards big earners, while this metric is more centered around the mode of the distribution (poor people).
It captures the income distribution much better than average income.
bee_rider an hour ago
I’m as frustrated as anybody else with how the economy is going in the US. But we should be skeptical about a new metric with an intuitive name that seems to confirm exactly what we all suspect but is sort of complex to interpret/measure, right?
In particular it seems weird that only we had a massive change during COVID.
Also seems a little odd that Germany was always better than the US, even in the 90’s when things were pretty good here.
Putting it together, we need to have COVID all the time here, so we can match the economic development of Germany immediately post-reunification.
9rx an hour ago
> In particular it seems weird that only we had a massive change during COVID.
It is not weird if you were old enough to be aware of the news during that time. Poor people in the US suddenly coming into money and being lifted out of poverty thanks to COVID stimulus checks was front and center in the news cycle as it was happening. The other countries noted did not follow the same "hand out free money" approach. Their safety nets were built around maintaining continuity during COVID.
Aurornis an hour ago
> It is not weird if you were old enough to be aware of the news during that time. Poor people in the US suddenly coming into money and being lifted out of poverty thanks to COVID stimulus checks was front and center in the news cycle as it was happening.
A lot was written about the stimulus checks but they were so small to not matter. A $1200 check isn't going to suddenly lift a lot of people out of poverty and keep them there, even though it could be make-or-break for a few selected cases.
The bigger change was that the American economy was basically turbocharged by all of the interventions going on. Remember "The Great Resignation" when everyone was changing jobs because all the companies were hiring as fast as they could? It was an ideal time to move your way into a better position in the job market.
phainopepla2 26 minutes ago
9rx 41 minutes ago
undefined 43 minutes ago
laurencerowe an hour ago
Average != median. This measure seems to be so high because there are so many low paid workers in the US due to low minimum wage.
Median workers in the US have some of the highest hourly wages at PPP in the rich world and they have been increasing, but they are pretty similar to those in Germany. The big difference in annual pay at PPP is down to hours worked.
For 2022 average annual hours worked per worker in the US is 1790 while in Germany it is 1340 [1]. Meanwhile average hourly wages at PPP in US are $34.9 vs $34.6 in Germany [2]
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-working-hours-per-...
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-hourly-earnings
janalsncm 34 minutes ago
I wonder if there’s also some difficulty in translation happening due to adding up inverted numbers for example 1/(a+b+c+…) != 1/a+1/b+1/c+…
tovej an hour ago
You forget that in the US, even with PPP, the level of "comfortable" is higher, due to missing social safety nets.
This means using PPP doesn't actually show where the level of precarity is.
laurencerowe 6 minutes ago
Life in the US is definitely more precarious than in Europe but that has been the case for a long time while median real earnings after stagnating from about 2001 to 2015 have been growing well since then.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
There is a huge mismatch between perception and data. I wonder whether some costs are just more pertinent?
codethief an hour ago
> The $1 is measured in international dollars. This means it buys the same amount of goods and services in any country as a US dollar does in the United States. It is often used alongside purchasing power parity (PPP) data. The “time” refers to a day of life for anyone, at any age and in any circumstance — not just the hours worked by someone with a job.
So IIUC this "average poverty" (measured in time per international dollar) includes people living off social welfare? Otherwise, if it only included the working population, wouldn't we have
average poverty ≝ (average yearly income* of the working population / 1yr)⁻¹
and so it should be inversely proportional to the average yearly income* metric mentioned in the article?*) Adjusted for purchasing power, i.e. measured in international dollars.
runako an hour ago
From a linked article:
>For these purposes, income includes earnings from work, government benefits and other sources of money, and it is averaged among all family members.
Yes, it is supposed to include income from all sources.
https://theconversation.com/measuring-poverty-on-a-spectrum-...
laurencerowe 33 minutes ago
I don't think that's quite right, it would be the average of the inverse hourly wage not the inverse of the average hourly wage.
>>> import statistics
>>> 1/statistics.mean([10,30,100])
0.02142857142857143
>>> statistics.mean([1/10, 1/30, 1/100])
0.04777777777777778mwhitfield an hour ago
No, it's
average poverty ≝ average(1 / annual income)
Inversely proportional to the harmonic mean of average yearly income.
abighamb 2 hours ago
This metric makes a lot of intuitive sense and reflects the consumer sentiment I hear from neighbors. "Working more for less" isn't a new complaint, but something that measures that is interesting.
I would be very interested to find out how those stats are related to things like, GINI or old pre-GDP economic measures of raw production.
weberer an hour ago
It is not intuitive at all to me. From the article, I can see that there's some sort of penalty by having more billionaires in the country, and that somehow leads to "the time needed to earn $1 is 63 minutes in the US", which doesn't really line up with the fact that minimum wage per hour ranges from $7-$18 depending on the state.
The "old" way was to measure median net PPP per capita, which makes more sense to me:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/85/Annual_m...
jltsiren an hour ago
The figure you linked to is particularly unintuitive. It shows income per household, divided by square root of household size. There are plenty of complex and unpredictable interactions with heuristics like that. For example, if housing becomes more affordable, young people may move out sooner. Then there will be more small households with low incomes, which may bring the reported income down.
makapuf an hour ago
This time is a global average, including non working people or part time people.
PaulKeeble an hour ago
Is the measure they are using inflation adjusted over time? If not this shows an enormous loss in purchasing capacity over time for the average person, which is certainly how its felt over the past decades as inflation has outrun wages for most people.
WarmWash an hour ago
I would guess this is because places like Germany having incredibly low annual working hours.[1] The bottom of the list is populated by all European countries.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_average_a...
adrian_b an hour ago
Being at the bottom of that list is very desirable, because it means high quality of life, while being at the top of that list means very low quality of life.
The goal of increasing work productivity must be to produce the same by working less, not to work the same in order to make higher profits for a negligible part of the society.
heathrow83829 20 minutes ago
the article doesn't explain how the math works. if min wage is 15$ an hour or 10$, how do they arrive at 1$ for 63 min???
tovej 11 minutes ago
See my comment elsewhere in this thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47605141
ktoyame an hour ago
it feels counterintuitive to me that US "average poverty" dropped more than 50 percent in covid, while european stayed absolutely untouched.
graybeardhacker an hour ago
I felt the same. But I think the reason is similar to how your fuel economy is absolutely destroyed by sitting still. When you average in a speed of zero the calculation goes haywire.
People in the US are so close to financial disaster that in order to avert disaster the US had to heavily subsidize those out of work. Many people got healthcare and unemployment benefits that would not have been otherwise available. This meant money for zero hours of work. When you average in $1/0 hours it does crazy things to the graph.
The reality is: During Covid the US rapidly adopted similar safety nets to EU countries and, in effect, aligned with their levels of poverty. Once the emergency measures ended we snapped back to our previous, precarious, poverty level.
Just my theory.
unsnap_biceps an hour ago
How much of that could be the lack of real social nets in the US compared to Europe?
In addition, anecdotally, everyone I know in the EU that had a job pre covid has a job today. I can't say the same thing about folks in the US.
makapuf an hour ago
The curious data point is that on this graph poverty seems to have strongly reduced during covid. Less poor.
milesskorpen an hour ago
undefined an hour ago
jeffbee an hour ago
weberer an hour ago
That's not my experience in Finland. The unemployment rate passed 10% a few months ago. Youth unemployment is now over 20%.
tovej 39 minutes ago
mikkupikku an hour ago
Politicians are judged by these metrics, so they all get gamed.
jojomodding an hour ago
They are not, sadly. Or rather, many voters care about many different things and the resulting metric is not that sensible.
jeffbee an hour ago
It is not counterintuitive at all, unless you misunderstand the income levels of the poor. Sending everyone $1400 massively increased the income of the poorest Americans.
9rx an hour ago
Different responses to the COIVD shutdowns. The US government gave stimulus money directly to the people, for many bringing an increase to one's income during that period. The European response was focused more on helping people keep their jobs so their incomes remained stable.
mikkupikku an hour ago
Extremely doubtful that the stimmy was enough to meaningfully reduce the real poverty level. The people who already live paycheck to paycheck spent that almost as soon as they got it (hopefully on something that meaningfully improved their lives, like deferred car or home repairs, but if we're being real a lot of people blew it on gambling apps.)
9rx an hour ago
jeffbee an hour ago
j_french 2 hours ago
Sterck's article from The Conversation referenced in this article: https://theconversation.com/measuring-poverty-on-a-spectrum-...
josefritzishere 9 minutes ago
The declining standard of living in the USA is has become painfully obvious. I think we're past solutions. The question is if it will go the way of Italy or the way of Yugoslavia.
joe_the_user 30 minutes ago
He finds that “average poverty is substantially higher in the US, even though average incomes are higher than in most Western European countries”.
That seems like a complicated way to "talk about median income without talking about median income". By the end, they do describe the basic situation: US has greater total wealth and total income but that wealth and income is so unequally distributed that more people are poor.
Ekaros 9 minutes ago
Cost of living and cost of goods sounds ludicrous from outside. Like rents and car payments, and insurance. And even stuff like some restaurants... Ofc, there is expensive locations outside but there is also lot more reasonable places. From outside it feels that there is something especially broken in cost wise in USA.
AnimalMuppet an hour ago
OK, the idea is interesting, but the numbers seem completely bogus. In what world does it take the average American 63 minutes to earn $1, even one "international" dollar?
I get the "international" part - purchasing power. The number still seems way off, though.
In a time when minimum wage is $7/hr, how is the average American earning $1/hr?
Can anyone make that number make any sense?
akamaka an hour ago
Nope, I just spent 15 minutes reading the original paper and can’t make any sense of what he is calculating.
International dollars are normalized to USD, so there’s no conversion necessary. The figure he quotes of 63 min per dollar converts to $8343/year. However, his original paper states that he created this measure by inverting income, so the number 8343 is his starting point.
The closest guess I have is that is derived from the poverty line for a family of four, $32150 (which divided by four is $8037).
If that is the case, what he is really doing is comparing poverty line definitions between countries.
rassimmoc an hour ago
You can't compare calculations in article with minimum wage.
Think of it this way, its like difference between median and average income. Larger inequality, larger the gap between median and average.
hnthrow0287345 an hour ago
>The “time” refers to a day of life for anyone, at any age and in any circumstance — not just the hours worked by someone with a job.
So it's how much you earn per day divided by 24, or maybe by yearly earnings and hours per year
charcircuit 30 minutes ago
It seems biased to ignore things like growth in housing prices and the stock market where we have seen some massive gains in recent years. If it's easy to invest in property or companies or bonds or treasuries or whatever to make a dollar. That should count.
wilg an hour ago
I believe this is the paper https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid%3A501e8eb8-3ce7-4ac0-9d09-...
embedding-shape an hour ago
Great intro that quickly explains the reasoning for the proposed new measure:
> Virtually everyone would agree that a 20-meter tree is twice as tall as a 10-meter tree. Conversely, everyone would agree that the 10-meter tree is twice as short as the 20-meter tree. There is no threshold or “shortness line” above or under which these relationships cease to hold: a 5-meter tree is twice as short as a 10-meter tree, a 1-meter tree is twice as short as a 2-meter tree, and so on. This reasoning remains valid when considering other multiples: a 1-meter tree is three times shorter than a 3-meter tree. To be sure, when assessing the height of a single tree, different people may disagree whether it is short or tall, as their judgment will depend on the benchmark they use for their assessment. However, when comparing two different trees, virtually everyone would make similar cardinal comparisons. In mathematical terms, shortness is the reciprocal of tallness. [...] In this paper, I apply the same logic to define a new poverty measure
Aurornis 38 minutes ago
There are a lot of words that have nothing to do with the claimed measure.
I'm still trying to figure out how he reached the conclusion that it takes 63 minutes to earn $1 in the US
IshKebab an hour ago
This seems like a quite nice way to measure poverty.
casey2 an hour ago
This metric rates very high on my private index Compensation, Obscuring, Paltry, Earnings (COPE)
nmbrskeptix an hour ago
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some_random 2 hours ago
[flagged]
croes an hour ago
Can you elaborate the obvious nonsense?
entropicdrifter 2 hours ago
They compared purchasing power for an actual apples to apples comparison. Did you even read the article, or just look at the graph without context?
wyre 2 hours ago
Some people have a gut reaction to take any bad news about America as slander or manipulated science; choosing to reject the truth as their dear leader tells them to.
wilg an hour ago
_the_inflator an hour ago
Don’t fall for it, this is payed I guess by one of the countless NGOs that serve the official agenda of leftist politicians.
Germany’s economy is the worst in Europe since a couple of years.
Industrial complex vanish faster than a glassy menu opens on the MacBook Pro series.
Bankruptcy is on an all time high, car makers opening new factories in Hungary and close theirs no matter how modern they are in Germany.
A pharmacist in Germany begged me to pay with fiat money and not to use Apple Pay nor credit card due to the percentage hit on the invoice - and I bought stuff for roughly 350EUR.
Roads look like 1990 in the German Democratic Republic.
All that politicians from the Left discuss is higher taxes, higher medical costs higher everything even state debt while service declines and investment disappears.
It is dire here. Don’t fall for it, because it is only getting worse.
The youth wants to leave Germany with at a percentage rate never seen before: between 20 and 25%.
And the net balance is already negative for 3 years if I remember correctly for people moving here and people leaving - and these are folks from Germany and people who’s parents immigrated here generations ago.
So called “Knives Prohibition Zones” installed in the last years shall account for the massive increase in knife attacks in the public zones.
Christmas markets don’t open as well as many traditional public meet ups closed due to anti terrorist and safety measures they have to pay for - an unheard and unseen phenomenon 10 years ago.
I could go on and on - but yeah, Europe is great and such, so cool, that more and more former colleagues who lived here 10 years and more happily leave the country for good.