ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline (twitter.com)

107 points by cmsparks 2 hours ago

applfanboysbgon an hour ago

> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand.

--Nate Silver (538 founder)

ABC seem pretty petty here.

rurp an hour ago

Wow. I have a low opinion of ABC as I said in another post, but this level of pettiness is still surprising to me.

brookst an hour ago

It’s basically a fuck you to the shareholders. Hey we’ve got this dead asset someone will pay for but we won’t sell because they were mean to us.

Any exec who operates that way should be shown the door ASAP as they are likely doing similar emotional management of other aspects of the business.

jfengel 27 minutes ago

SoftTalker 37 minutes ago

eugenekolo an hour ago

WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty?

8note a minute ago

the easy argument otherwise would be that if they sold the IP, they wouldnt be able to revive it in the future, and also they would have nate silver as a competitor in the space

tptacek 35 minutes ago

No. People have weird beliefs about what fiduciary duty means. It does not mean that companies are required at all intervals to maximize revenue or profit.

jvanderbot an hour ago

Dunno - is protecting yourself from high-profile criticism by doing whatever you want with assets you 100% own and are under no contractual obligation to share ... also in fiduciary duty?

minimaxir 39 minutes ago

It is not illegal to be petty during business negotiations.

nradov an hour ago

Nope. There is really no case law to support such a legal theory.

rurp an hour ago

It's wild to me how often I see corporate America both: 1. Spend immense amounts trying to build and improve a brand. 2. Toss well known brands aside as if they are useless.

Not that it's always the same company doing both at the same time, but it's crazy 538 was just left to die. It was a very recognizable brand among wonky professionals, a very desirable customer base. It's not as if politics and sports have gotten less relevant in the world over the past decade. ABC's decision to toss this aside is baffling.

Much of the 538 alumni seem to be doing well, either independently or as part of a major organization, so I don't think much was lost overall. But I sure empathize with the folks who lost their dream job and ABC looks pretty bad for frittering away a successful business for seemingly no reason. Taking down these articles is nonsensical.

keeganpoppen an hour ago

this is what the salesforces of the world do to startups every day. it is so painful to watch. billions upon billions wasted for just the stupidest possible reasons.

forlorn_mammoth 38 minutes ago

at least they aren't inefficient, like governments are. Because as you can clearly see market forces always lead to optimal resource allocations.

msie 18 minutes ago

herpdyderp 17 minutes ago

On the other hand, it's nice for the people receiving those paychecks (at least while they're still receiving them).

culi 2 minutes ago

Really sad to see some of the best visualizations I've ever seen in my life being taken down. I've easily spent hours exploring playing with their gun deaths visualization, p-hacking piece, gut microbiome explorable explainer and many others.

Guess we better back up their GitHub repos before that gets taken down as well

https://github.com/fivethirtyeight

spprashant an hour ago

538 was fun while it lasted. The podcasts were also a good listen.

Things got worse after Disney had their first round of layoffs. Their problem was they weren't profitable outside the presidential election years when interest peaked in the general public. 3 out of 4 years only diehard election polling wonks tuned in.

htrp 33 minutes ago

If they shut it down, then it's just a strategic decision.

If Nate Silver buys it back (for pennies on the dollar) and then makes it successful, it's embarrassing and makes ABC look bad at business.

rurp 8 minutes ago

That's kind of already happened though. Nate and Galen have both launched Substack's covering much of what they did at 538. I've also seen at least 4-5 others working elsewhere doing the similar polling/politics/sports work.

Maybe that was the logic on ABC's part but it's ridiculously wrong given how much clear market demand there is for the 538 people and content.

toyg 16 minutes ago

I don't understand why Nate doesn't just start SixFortyNine and does it all over again. In the end, what ABC owns is just a name - which was always kinda stupid and even hard to spell - and a bunch of obsolete content.

daniel-thompson 14 minutes ago

https://www.natesilver.net/

i was a casual reader of 538 back in the day. his substack feels pretty similar, if smaller in scope.

rconti an hour ago

Tangential: I miss Nate and Maria Konnikova's Risky Business podcast. It only lasted a year (or two?).

I expected it would be resurrected outside the Pushkin network, but hasn't happened yet.

What I _don't_ miss is listening to podcasts on Pushkin. I had nothing against Malcolm Gladwell, but something about having his voice on every one of the network's very numerous ads became incredibly grating.

rurp 4 minutes ago

I enjoyed the old 538 podcast and usually like Nate's work but didn't care at all about Risky Business. His cohost was terrible in the episodes I listened too. She managed to do a lot of talking without saying anything interesting or insightful.

Gladwell also annoys me, so that didn't help matters.

robtaylor an hour ago

If you sell out don't expect to control future events.

Lerc 32 minutes ago

Fair enough, but you can still observe and make comments about them.

chasd00 5 minutes ago

Was 538 ABC's property during the first Trump election? IIRC they took a pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong and never really recovered.

deanebarker 2 hours ago

But why?

markoman 2 hours ago

Nate Silver has some pretty good commentary on it all on his X account (https://x.com/NateSilver538).

hightrix an hour ago

A link for those of us without twitter accounts.

https://xcancel.com/NateSilver538

cmsparks 2 hours ago

No idea. ABC bought it and slowly has been shutting down the parts of it. They got rid of the projects page, then laid off all the folks working on it after the election, and now have gotten rid of all of the articles.

Fortunately the Github is still up: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight

fn-mote 2 hours ago

> Fortunately the Github is still up

I need to mirror everything to keep it accessible when they decide to shut this down, too?

I loved that site, and referred people to it frequently.

BeetleB an hour ago

I'm surprised this is news - or perhaps just surprised that there was still some of 538 around ...?

ABC officially sunset 538 over a year ago (and laid off most/all of the staff).

woodydesign an hour ago

Oh NO, that's probably the best infographic news sites I was keep visiting and learn

BeetleB an hour ago

538 was sunset over a year ago.

Shalomboy 2 hours ago

ABC has opted to step on Thucydides Trap.

jimbob45 an hour ago

538 had a really accessible portal that evaluated the quality of pollsters. It made it very easy to know which polls were low-quality and therefore ignorable. It being an election year, it’s possible someone didn’t like their pollster rating. Thankfully, we still have Internet Archive.

Edit: nm it was definitely the burrito battle royale bracket. Big burrito couldn’t handle the truth being revealed about their restaurants.

jmclnx an hour ago

The old school press people before the 80s would be horrified at this.

All this proves is when the press was deregulated to allow one person to own all the media they can afford brought us were we are now.

flomo an hour ago

No. The 'old school' hated 538 and polling wonks in general. Back in the 2000s there was a huge push back because this blog guy had numbers going against whatever narrative they were trying spin.

lotsofpulp an hour ago

I feel like it proves the opposite. A small entity was able to become a valued source of information, a big entity bought it, but then was unable to do anything with it, since being a “big” media seller does not matter due to the accessibility of the internet.

sparrish 2 hours ago

This makes no sense. Sure, he got nearly every prediction wrong but so have their meteorologists. Why just pick on poor ol' Nate?

MostlyStable an hour ago

Yeah they sure were bad at predictions. If only they had aggregated all their predictions and compared them to how things actually turned out in one easy assess location. That sure would have been useful..... [0]

[0] https://web.archive.org/web/20250306183754/https://projects....

cmsparks an hour ago

538 was actually pretty accurate!

They had a good article about how their predictions were much better than you'd expect, but obviously I can't link it anymore because ABC removed it.

fabian2k an hour ago

The 70:30 prediction against Trump was far better than most. I did see models back then that considered the state polls mostly or entirely uncorrelated, and those produced obviously garbage with 90% or even 99% in favor of Clinton.

But in the end people pick on Nate because he really enjoys being an asshole on the internet. It's far more about when he acts as a pundit, not as an expert on statistics.

bigfishrunning 2 minutes ago

I kind of fell off the Nate Silver train toward the end of Trump's first term (so deep in the COVID-19 era...). It feels like around that time 538 shifted heavily away from raw statistics and into punditry, and they seemed less unique among the various political blogs.

softwaredoug an hour ago

People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.

triceratops an hour ago

Yossarrian22 an hour ago

krapp 44 minutes ago

add-sub-mul-div 43 minutes ago

Those predictions all became worthless anyway when Comey reopened the "emails" issue right before the election and threw fresh meat to all the stupid people who ate that up.

BeetleB an hour ago

This isn't about Nate's articles (although perhaps those are gone as well).