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It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs.

The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026.

The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.

And oh boy do they make sure everyone knows that they are doing an IPO

They already do both.

The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

The question is not "if" they will lose their ethos but "how long will it take".

corporate pursuit of monopoly is as sure a phenomenon as gravity

I’m curious which labs will start producing hardware be it robotics, consumer or commercial devices, chips, energy infrastructure or transforming shipping crates into housing for displaced and jobless humans. O_o

IPO won't lose their ethos. Competition out from their duopoly will.

There is significant first-mover advantage for torching your ethos.

> if their company ethos remains the same.

What? In what way would the change? They are already raising prices..

what is their company ethos? They are some of the most despicable tech companies in my opinion.

And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else...

SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....

Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?

Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.

Stripe seems to be doing fairly well as a private company. They continually offer liquidity events for employees to cash out, while also retaining less pressure for hypergrowth from outside activists and investors.

It's the contents of the submission that are confidential, not the fact that they are submitting.

The contents themselves contain a lot of detailed information about the internals of the company including financials, revenue, ownership details etc... those details are what's confidential until the SEC gives its approval, at which point the public can then review the document.

I like your sense of humor

I suppose they announced it because the fact that they submitted it would leak anyway.

That's how you know it's purely marketing and they're not actually going public.

I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicated, but I do wonder how to figure out how much I'm affected.

Time in market > timing the market.

The contents are confidential. They are just announcing they submitted it.

The S-1 itself isn't made public in a confidential filing.

You pretty much always do a late-stage private round shortly before an IPO, that is the standard. The goal of the late-stage funding round is to give a better idea of how much capital can be raised by the IPO. It helps reduce uncertainty about expectations of what the company is worth before going public.

Pump up the valuation baby.

Price setting.

IPO isn't really about "raising money for the company" any longer, unless one means raising the money in their wallets so they can take the money and run.

Most likely. Funds generally don't have much unallocated cash, they operate fully invested, so three huge IPOs will force an asset rebalancing which can cause some liquidity drain from the rest of the market.

Plus as insider lockup periods expire, that's a ton of dollars pulled out of the market and into safer assets. It's going to be a huge net exit of capital.

I'd expect a lot of volatility and pretty heavy downward pressure across the rest of tech.

At least all the index funds are obligated to, right?

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Shorting when there is a mania is way, way too risky

> Time to short the market. We are at peak bubble.

I've seen this comment on HN at least 5 times already.

This is actually the pin everyone was looking for that will pop this AI bubble, including the token cost falling in China and the release of open models that are good and run locally.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

They are metered. That's why their ARR went from $9B to $45B in 6 months.

It means that Anthropic has submitted a document that it intends to share with the public in order to solicit public investment. This document includes details about its business, financials/revenue, ownership structure, risks, etc...

The document itself is what's confidential until the SEC approves it, at which point Anthropic will release that document to the public and IPO.

Can't see the relevance of this comment to the post. You can do a Google search for "confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC" to see other examples of companies announcing these submissions and they're all written in the same way.

It's just a standard/template that most companies reuse.

https://www.figma.com/blog/s1-confidential-submission

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gemini-announces-co...

https://investors.navan.com/news-releases/news-release-detai...

https://www.round1-group.co.jp/docs/pdf/2026/20260507_news_e...

> This announcement is being published under Rule 135 of the Securities Act of 1933

It's a required public disclosure following a format traditionally used in mandatory public disclosures.

Is there any real reason to have generated announcements anyway? You could get more polished text with some copy editors and I can't imagine cost is really a big concern for it.

It's a legal notice, what are you talking about?