The OnlyFans Economy of American AI (leoveanu.com)

111 points by futurisold 3 hours ago

zkmon 2 hours ago

Most American companies (regulated ones, definitely) can't dare to touch any Chinese models, though they knew that it makes perfect economic sense. Until the taboo prevails, the cartel get's their flood of profit. That's a cartel protected by regulations.

xnx 2 hours ago

Is "taboo" the right word? "taboo" = "banned on grounds of morality or taste". Not sending data to known IP thieves, state actors, and competitors in China (or Russia or Israel) seems very rational.

HarHarVeryFunny 2 hours ago

Many of the Chinese models are open weights, so if you are concerned about them "phoning home", then anyone can just self-host and run them themself, or use via a US provider such as OpenRouter.

falcor84 2 hours ago

kube-system an hour ago

xnx an hour ago

tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago

>> Not sending data to known IP thieves, state actors, and competitors in China (or Russia or Israel) seems very rational.

As opposed to sending data to known IP thieves, state actors, and competitors in the USA ? Which one is the most irrational?

Levitz 2 hours ago

enraged_camel 2 hours ago

Matl an hour ago

> known IP thieves

Such as Antropic and OpenAI you mean?

obsidianbases1 2 hours ago

I'm not any less concerned about the US companies.

A Chinese company seems more likely to produce Chinese products that don't directly compete in the US market.

While a US company can ship the product as a feature of their platform and undercut on price while making up the revenue elsewhere

Edit: I personally use US models, but I'm not naive enough to think that's any sort of real protection of IP

Der_Einzige 2 hours ago

The Chinese models can and should be run locally (though the price difference vs western models isn't as good when done this way).

Before the age of AI Agent Harnesses/unbounded tool calling, there was literally ZERO risk of a .safetensors file "hacking" you. You could even air-gap and run a ton of security analysis/HIDS on your server running the model to verify this.

Now, because a microscopic risk of some chinese AI having a "trigger" to act badly in a harness when it detects its being used by some Gweilo in the USA, even locally run Chinese models are DOA for most USA based companies.

qarl an hour ago

The real advantage of the Chinese models is that they do not phone home at all. They run locally unlike their US competitors.

So odd that your erroneous criticism is at the top of HN.

EDIT: I'd love to hear my downvoters' objections. Is it possible that the mechanism that is promoting erroneous information is also demoting its correction?

kube-system an hour ago

analognoise 2 hours ago

These are the same people that sent manufacturing jobs away to be copied elsewhere. They got rewarded for it in the market. Decades later, when it was clearly a problem, they got tax breaks to bring some of it back/distribute the work to other, friendlier countries.

Every public AI that is not full of classified material will end up being hosted where the energy cost*compute efficiency product is lowest, thievery or not.

With Chinese GPUs just a step behind (but subsidized), China putting in 8x more solar than we do in 1 year, and Chinese models just a step behind but free? All public AI will be hosted there, theft or not.

If it becomes a problem, then we’ll subsidize the rich to bring it on-shore, but only to those companies who our leaders invest in already - to maximize grift and corruption.

scotty79 2 hours ago

"China bad!" is a moral statement. Whetever the reasons might have been that it was formed.

blfr 2 hours ago

mannanj 2 hours ago

I don't want to send my data to known IP thieves, state actors, and competitors in USA either. This to me seems very rational.

It's not tribalistic or binary ,choose USA Or Choose China. We can choose neither.

Choose neither abuse.

FeteCommuniste 2 hours ago

tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago

You have the models available on Bedrock. What is the problem? It stays within your AWS account.

mynameismon 2 hours ago

Why not Chinese models hosted on American hardware?

Der_Einzige 2 hours ago

The reality is that they're a hell of a lot less cheap on American hardware than on Chinese hardware. At the point you are running Chinese models on US hardware, "Why not nano or haiku" becomes the next relevant question.

computerex 2 hours ago

worldthruword 2 hours ago

And the reasons are same. Chinese cars can't be sold in US (EU is planning a similar law to ban Chinese goods).

mavhc an hour ago

When will we see an open source car?

moron4hire an hour ago

newaccountman2 2 hours ago

I think unless one is operating in a highly regulated industry, wanting to avoid "sending data to China" is a bit paranoid. For code specifically, most of it is not interesting anyways.

joe_mamba 2 hours ago

>Most American companies (regulated ones, definitely) can't dare to touch any Chinese models, though they knew that it makes perfect economic sense.

Weird, considering they had no issues shipping manufacturing and supply chains to China when that made economic sense.

blfr 2 hours ago

Yes, there was a whole idea about civilizing and pacifying the world through economic cooperation that would foster middle class in countries across the world that would then in turn make them democratize and become peaceful trade partners.

It didn't quite work out so now people are looking for other strategies.

galactushonor 2 hours ago

jampekka 2 hours ago

mitthrowaway2 2 hours ago

tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago

goatlover 2 hours ago

joe_mamba 2 hours ago

swiftcoder 2 hours ago

> and will judge, like any sane person, that US frontier models have stopped earning their multiplier

I think that this is on the money, although I'd place the bar even lower - DeepSeek v4 Flash is sufficient for basically all day-to-day coding tasks.

You might want something beefier for a complicated reverse-engineering project, but it will competently one-shot a decently complicated app or API - and a $10/month OpenCode Go subscription is sufficient to keep you in tokens for such a cost-efficient model...

Similarly, my employer hands us all Cursor, I've yet to actually switch it out of "auto" mode, which mostly runs Composer (their in-house finetune of Kimi 2.5).

realmofthemad 42 minutes ago

Am I missing out? I feel like I can definitely tell the difference in quality between Claude Opus and other smaller models. The smaller models are much more likely to make mistakes or to get stuck on random stuff

Maybe I just haven't been trying the right models?

sublinear an hour ago

I think the situation is even more severely ridiculous than that. Google is still good enough just like it was well over a decade ago.

Most people don't have workloads that demand agentic workflows to begin with, and if their employer is pushing for that it's probably a startup that underpays or a coding sweatshop full of nepotism that fires fast.

xyzal 2 hours ago

I'll root for DeepSeek v4 Flash as well. It surprised me just how "good enough" it is for most of my needs, and also dirt cheap. Everyone should try it at least once.

MaKey 2 hours ago

+1, it's good enough for what I need to do as a DevOps engineer.

blfr 2 hours ago

I don't get the point. That Anthropic or OpenAI have more expensive products than Alibaba? So does Apple, AWS/GCP, and pretty much any other large western company vs its Chinese counterparts.

jayd16 an hour ago

It's a ludicrous amount of words to say "I use the cheap models and that makes me very smart."

rdiddly 26 minutes ago

I honestly could not follow any discernible point or thrust to this incoherent, disorganized, self-indulgent piece-of-shit post. He didn't even successfully establish or explain the titular Onlyfans analogy. I know more about his fucking taste for sci fi than I do about the ostensible subject matter. I know more about his physical composition (answer: he is made of metal. He was forged in the fires of science. O glorious creation, emerging complete and perfect from the furnace!) than I do about the subject matter.

jayd16 19 minutes ago

hparadiz 2 hours ago

There's a lot of assumptions in here and reductivism of the paid plans to just the models. If that's your idea of how you want to use the API sure that's a reasonable mental financial model but if you want automatic integration with third party systems the cost of the "premium" models is not that high relative what was being paid for SAS apps before and during.

twolf910616 2 hours ago

How many words did I read in this article before I realized it wasn't written by AI? 10? 20? A paragraph or two?

It's quite strange that it's very easy to detect AI in writing.

jampekka 2 hours ago

> It's quite strange that it's very easy to detect AI in writing.

Or you detect only the easy to detect AI writing?

sometimelurker an hour ago

I really freaked out once I stopped seeing AI gen videos on those scrollyapps, that fear is what got me off them. (the videos got so good I couldn't tell if they were real or not)

rdiddly 23 minutes ago

How many words before you realized it was a piece of shit though? For me it was "Because I am a Sci-Fi nerd." Yet I kept reading, because I am a fucking fool, and now I'm pissed that I spent time on it.

ramon156 2 hours ago

Something something entropy

If I ask three models to write an intro to the cold war, they'll all try to pick words that sound like they should be related-ish. I'm not saying that's how they work at all, but the output is indistinguishable from just grabbing some words in the wikipedia page.

Humans make mistakes. They'll use words they recently learned. They'll use words that sound good. Entropy still applies, but these outliers are what keeps us from a synthetic piece of writing

boelboel 2 hours ago

"I am also an engineer, which means I have a healthy respect for the practical. All this made me a fine skeptic ..." is what did it for me.

sajithdilshan an hour ago

For me it’s easily the — character. Like no human would use that since it’s not in any standard keyboard

fragmede 19 minutes ago

It's readily accessible on a software keyboard. Software keyboards are common on smartphone devices. Y'know that thing that 75% of the world's population uses?

bix6 2 hours ago

Is there any truth to the Chinese models having built in f’ery? Like phoning home or inserting backdoors. Or is that just everyone blanketing “China bad”?

Also what local models are people running and actually finding useful?

bee_rider an hour ago

The models themselves should not be able to phone home, right? They are just piles of weights that generate text (and associated metadata), they don’t have any ability to run code.

They could be trained to generate code that would phone home. But these are just tools, anybody doing the right thing and checking and understanding every line of code that they use an LLM to generate has nothing to worry about.

allthetime 43 minutes ago

Nobody is only generating code. Many are letting agents run commands. Agents routinely write scripts and run tools in the background. Agents who have been told they can only do `cat` and `grep` can sometimes do `cat $EVIL_PAYLOAD | bash`. It's entirely possible for a model to have malicious commands designed for agents to execute baked in.

deaux an hour ago

No, there is zero truth in it. It would be trivial to detect phoning home.

On top of that, all claims of this are written on devices built on Chinese hardware. That makes it a joke to worry about hidden backdoors in Chinese models. Completely inane to pretend that Chinese model backdoors (for which there doesn't exist a sliver of evidence) would change anything when near every device in the US contains Chinese-written firmware in some shape or form.

It's All-American FUD.

witx an hour ago

If you think american models aren't phoning home and don't have backdoor capabillities, you're naive.

With all the sloppers not looking at the code this is bliss for that sort of things

codemog an hour ago

We’ve detected zero cases of any Chinese models doing this. I’m quite tired of the American propaganda. If only Americans understood China really does not care about them outside of wanting to sell them things. They’re too busy building high speed rails, modern cities, and providing healthcare to their citizens. I am ashamed to be an American these days.

JumpCrisscross an hour ago

witx 19 minutes ago

KellyCriterion 2 hours ago

Question that I do not understand:

How should a local-run Chinese Model "phone home" if someone runs it locally on the hardware? I think Im missing some understanding here?

monsieurbanana 2 hours ago

I don't think they do at the moment, but they could be trained subtly add backdoors to code or make "phone home" api calls during dev time, triggering on certain conditions ("is user employee of xyz")

rjsw 2 hours ago

I think the fear is that it might insert some "phone home" routine into the source code that it generates.

Jtarii 2 hours ago

Has anyone demonstrated that this type of attack is even possible? Also the moment anyone detects this attack it will nuke deepseek/other chinese AI labs reputation completely, it is the most high risk low reward attack ever.

fragmede an hour ago

fancyfredbot 2 hours ago

The article is right that open models already compete well with the frontier labs, and that the main thing holding big corps back from switching is fear of China.

I can't see OpenAI or Anthropic undermining their business by releasing top tier open models, but surely Nvidia will do it eventually.

notyourwork 2 hours ago

Nvidia has to balance relations with their biggest customers. So that’s a careful decision to be made by them.

obsidianbases1 2 hours ago

I really enjoyed this critical take on the current landscape. It's a breathe of fresh air from the seemingly neverending stream of sycophants

woadwarrior01 an hour ago

The sycophants are plied with insider / early access, with the tacit threat that such access would be revoked if they're critical of the provider.

38484858 2 hours ago

you dont like simonw's articles?

tcp_handshaker an hour ago

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his blog depends upon his not understanding it."

adampunk 2 hours ago

>I am here to light up the dark path you are unknowingly walking, like lamplighters who used to light street lamps for those brave enough to walk the night alone. What the light reveals has a name: Qwen 3.7 Max.

I sure am glad we left idolatry behind.

sivakon 2 hours ago

What is this $100 plan the author was talking about?

jmyeet 2 hours ago

This is kind of a winding, long-winded way of saying that AI models are going to be commoditized, mostlikely by the Chinese. This has been my position ever since DeepSeek came out. It is a national security interest for China for an American company not to "own" AI. And they will release models to make that not happen.

We aren't yet at the point where running local models can compete with DC type infrastructure but it's not that far away either. 12B models are easy to run on consumer hardware. 31B models aren't that hard either but the tokens/sec are a bit slow. Where will we be in 3 years? 5? I think we'll be running 100B+ models on <$5000 PCs. And at that point is there a law of diminishing returns with even bigger models? We will see.

The issue is that several companies, most notably OpenAI, are predicated on:

1. There will be an AI moat; and

2. That company will "win" or "own" AI.

That's the basis of the OpenAI valuation. If that doesn't happen, it's going to be ahuge problem to recover sufficient revenue to recoup the investment. And I don't think it will happen.

In 3-5 years the NVidia hardware you buy will be several times cheaper and faster than what we have now. That will massively depreciate existing investments because it will ultimately come down to performance-per-Watt but if a theoretical G100 can do 3-4x of the inference of an H100 for the same power, the older hardware just won't be able to compete.

tcp_handshaker an hour ago

>> In 3-5 years the NVidia hardware you buy will be several times cheaper and faster than what we have now. That will massively depreciate existing investments because it will ultimately come down to performance-per-Watt but if a theoretical G100 can do 3-4x of the inference of an H100 for the same power, the older hardware just won't be able to compete.

And this is the core of why this will all end in tears. You have race conditions and thread inversion issues, between four threads in the virtual cpu of this bubble. And you are going to experience some nasty deadlocks.

T1 is -> Depreciation and amortization

T2 is -> NVDA, AMD and others booking revenues at the time they do

T3 is -> Constraint theory at it applies to time until physical deployment and data centers energy constraints

T4 is -> US Treasury bonds rates and cost of credit

trumpdong 44 minutes ago

Even though programmers would never intentionally design a 4-way race condition in a computer system, it's completely ordinary in business. Businesses don't always work out.

sandworm101 2 hours ago

Is it just me, but the language gap between me and the AI believers is becoming insumountable. I use AI every day. I have a local server not ten feet from me as i type this, but i struggle to comprehend the gibberish that comes from those only slightly deeper in the rabbit hole than myself. Is this what 24/7 AI thinking does to people?

>> I am here to light up the dark path you are unknowingly walking, like lamplighters who used to light street lamps for those brave enough to walk the night alone.

>> It all fell apart quickly, turning into smoke and mirrors. You see, I committed the cardinal sin of idolatry. For that, I am an idiot too. With OpenAI, at least I knew the devil

Is this a critique of the state of AI or Tolkien fanfic?

throwaway041207 2 hours ago

I don't think the writing style has anything to do with AI, it's just a writer without an editor.

Bolwin 42 minutes ago

If this is what we get without editors I want every thing I read to be without editors

swiftcoder 2 hours ago

> Is this a critique of the state of AI or Tolkien fanfic?

Por que no los dos? One of the most storied AI researchers is most known for his Harry Potter fanfic, and we all know how much the techbros love naming things after Tolkien...

tayo42 2 hours ago

Who is that?

fragmede an hour ago

swiftcoder 2 hours ago

mohamedkoubaa 2 hours ago

It is not just you

rawgabbit 2 hours ago

The last notable event in American history when the meaning of words lost any semblance to reality was just before the Civil War. We are living in a post words world where words have no meaning.

trumpdong 43 minutes ago

What happened to words in the American Civil War?

sandworm101 37 minutes ago

LurkandComment 2 hours ago

Every industry goes through its slop phase. You should see how much of early print was smut or really amaturish. We just like to talk about the Bible and the great art. What we need is a way to filter through it. AI should be decent at this, but for many intentional and unintentional reasons it isn't.

swiftcoder 2 hours ago

> You should see how much of early print was smut

Hey, don't malign smut. It's the great technological motivator

graemep 2 hours ago

Early print was not just smut or amateurish. Some of it was highly harmful misinformation: Malleus Maleficarem is an outstanding example that caused an immense amount of harm.

tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago

They are in the phase I need a government bailout like the banks after their crazy financial adventures of the 2000 to 2008. At which point the corruption is so big, that an Empire crumbles under its own stench?

"Trump to meet AI leaders to discuss US investment in their companies" - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c98r8r7dz5no

"Trump Officials Held Millions of Dollars of SpaceX Ahead of IPO" - https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-offi...

Waterluvian 2 hours ago

The retirement investor bailout strategy seems to have recently failed with the index fund rejection of SpaceX but therefore Anthropic and OpenAI. They’ll have to keep looking for ways to make others deal with the consequences of their actions.

tcp_handshaker 2 hours ago

Only for the S&P not the NASDAQ, but the Capex they need until 2030 is well over 2 to 3 trillion, so now they plan to use US Treasury Bonds as their exit liquidity.

"Your 401K Is Their Exit Strategy" - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48433705