Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science (openai.com)

280 points by milkshakes 4 hours ago

sothatsit 38 minutes ago

People argue whether we are at y-5, y, or y+5, meanwhile we seem to be on a y=2^x exponential that keeps delivering more and more impressive results.

The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn, but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there. How about politics? Will we develop new ways to let people express their own values in democracies, or will we just get much better at manipulation? How about experiment driven domains like biology?

tyre 28 minutes ago

We will get much better at manipulation and better at people “writing” things to justify their own feelings.

What’s new about LLMs is that you can scalably manipulate people individually. It used to be that you could either have scale (speeches, tweets, interviews, website, etc.) or individual engagement (replying to mail/tweets/town hall questions.)

Now you can pull the history and preferences of an individual, then shape a message—in real time—to them, specifically. You can have conversations on social media with a single person and shape your message specifically to them.

Part of this can be good (you talk about what they care about, where 90% of broadcast messaging might not apply) and part of it can be bad (manipulation.)

My guess is that, in the US, the right will cynically adopt manipulation to great effect and the left will take a moral stand against shady practices and lose elections.

lettergram 19 minutes ago

> My guess is that, in the US, the right will cynically adopt manipulation to great effect and the left will take a moral stand against shady practices and lose elections.

I think that statement may itself highlight how prevalent manipulation is.

I fully anticipate all groups to continue maximal manipulation they can. One thing with LLMs is that it'll be a far less unified view, so a "divide and conquer" strategy is what I anticipate.

jcims 33 minutes ago

>Will we develop new ways to let people express their own values in democracies, or will we get much better at manipulation?

Yes.

porridgeraisin 9 minutes ago

Today's models depend on inference time compute to get these results. The inference time compute available on any claude subscription is not comparable to the ones used to get some of these results (yes, in this case, it is 2000 USD total as noam confirmed, but some previous results took more).

In general, you can think of the process as generating massive rollouts in generation N, and then compiling in the verifier/human feedback("gradient") signal into generation N+1. The time taken to make the rollout in generation N, and separately the time taken to get the same rollout in generation N+1, grows constant in some tasks, linear in more, and exponential in some.

In the end, this becomes bottlenecked by time. Today, we can make statements like "I generated all these successful trajectories with 2 weeks of compute, in the next model it will be able to do it in 7 hours of compute", but very soon you'll find yourself making statements like "I generated.... with 8 months of compute, in the next model it can do it in 6 months", which isn't really enticing the same way you can _technically_ brute force passwords but it just needs prohibitive amounts of time and money. Note that, this point is quite far away. For example, at any point if we agree it plateaus, today's known hardware techniques such as fixed function accelerators give you a 10x timeline reduction immediately allowing for a few more cycles of improvement. This is not to mention future innovations, but of course none of that is helping with the benchmarks where the time needed is growing superlinearly.

In many math and coding benchmarks, we are still in the constant phase. These are the massive improvements we see every few months. I'm not making any prediction of what will plateau and what will not as it's not possible to make an informed prediction about these things IMO. But the observed fact is that some have already plateaud as in, they don't improve with reasonable inference time (likely superlinear growth).

> will we need mathematicians to translate

Let's take a sudoku analogy. The model is initially just doing the random value algorithm, but lets say you the human are watching it. You make one of the usual reductions and interject "hey you can stop trying 8 here because of ....". Over enough examples, you get to a point where the model is _forced_ to learn the logical pattern. After this, you can peak the correct distribution using simple 1/0 RL. Doing _pure_ 1/0 RL works decent, but its not frontier as its a very sparse signal.

For that lift, human (or even a better LLM, but if you're trying to improve a frontier LLM, there is by definition no better LLM) feedback becomes necessary. This is _why_ it is crucial that these models interface in natural language and is also why the labs are hiring AI tutors by the hundreds.

> But the long term is completely bewildering if you believe any of these trends can continue at a similar pace for the next few years.

For math and coding, for now we are in the phase where the times are just ... constant, so there's little reason to think it will stop soon. We still need humans to expand the frontier. It just becomes a matter of if its worth the cost of compute for running this generalized The Algorithm or not.

Given how well chess players internalized _many_ (not all) of alphazero's emergent chess knowledge, I am confident we wont have too much trouble figuring out any new math LLMs come up with, which will let us keep expanding the frontier by giving the LLM the next "lift". Only when we reach the stage where the time growth become exponential will this stop, IMO.

viccis 11 minutes ago

>Will we develop new ways to let people express their own values in democracies, or will we just get much better at manipulation?

Is there even the tiniest reason to suspect that the people steering this progress will use it for the democratic good of all?

dominotw 12 minutes ago

> The most interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be undergoing, and what won’t. Writing has been quite stubborn,

isn't it clearly split between verifiable not verifiable ? what is interesting about that question.

dominotw 15 minutes ago

> but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there

what did you notice ?

DrBazza 2 days ago

Replace philosophers for mathematicians and Douglas Adams was spot on again.

Whilst current models can't 'intuit' and come up with conjectures, they can certainly disprove some of them very quickly through the kind of grind that humans can't do. I suppose there really are some mathematicians out there today, whose last few years of study, have just been up-ended by this.

--

"Yes we are," insisted Majikthise. "We are quite definitely here as representatives of the Amalgamated Union of Philosophers, Sages, Luminaries and Other Thinking Persons, and we want this machine off, and we want it off now!"

"What's the problem?" said Lunkwill.

"I'll tell you what the problem is mate," said Majikthise, "demarcation, that's the problem!"

"We demand," yelled Vroomfondel, "that demarcation may or may not be the problem!"

"You just let the machines get on with the adding up," warned Majikthise, "and we'll take care of the eternal verities thank you very much. You want to check your legal position you do mate. Under law the Quest for Ultimate Truth is quite clearly the inalienable prerogative of your working thinkers. Any bloody machine goes and actually finds it and we're straight out of a job aren't we? I mean what's the use of our sitting up half the night arguing that there may or may not be a God if this machine only goes and gives us his bleeding phone number the next morning?"

WarmWash 3 hours ago

>Whilst current models can't 'intuit

That's how they are finding these solutions though, unless we are just going to label intuition as something only humans can do. Like a submarine being unable to swim or whatever that example is.

sdenton4 an hour ago

Some of them...

The two places were seeing lots of movement are:

* Updates to lower/upper bounds. In many cases, these kinds of problems are the deep-math equivalent of calculating more digits of pi. Yes, if you throw time at it you'll break the record, but it may not be terribly worthwhile.

* Finding counter examples which disprove conjectures. This is really useful, and helps offset some positivity bias on the human side, often bringing together known tools from distant silos.

If you read the list of ten results, almost all fall into one of these buckets.

pama an hour ago

tuatoru 26 minutes ago

robotpepi an hour ago

it could also be that they try every possible approach that has been proposed by humans. it seems that was the case for the non sofic group example. humans are not able to do the same at that scale. it's unfortunate that we don't know what's happening behind the hood with these models, and that's a huge danger also for the rest of us without access to them.

rirze 2 hours ago

> "matrices"

fasterik an hour ago

pama 3 hours ago

> Whilst current models can't 'intuit' and come up with conjectures

I disagree. I routinely let LLMs speculate or generate hypotheses along the way of helping with technical research. Sometimes they can prove the correctness of a concrete math idea but other times even an unproven conjecture helps with the numerical algorithm implementation and the result is then simply supported by additional data. I guess that any autoresearch-adjacent application has LLMs intuiting and coming up with hypotheses/conjectures—as do the steps/lemmas along a complex proof. In my opinion the modern LLMs are powerful intuitive thinkers that generate lots of conjectures of varying quality or importance.

zahlman 25 minutes ago

> they can certainly disprove some of them very quickly through the kind of grind that humans can't do

Of course computers can grind in a way that humans can't. But now we have systems that convert the human-comprehensible ideas into a computer's plan of attack, in a way that greatly expands the frontier of ideas thus treatable.

evenhash 3 hours ago

> Whilst current models can't 'intuit' and come up with conjectures

People keep saying this. Why?

Surely the AI can complete the prompt “Generate new research questions based on these observations”?

When I read the reasoning traces of coding models they are constantly asking themselves questions and attempting to answer them.

5555watch an hour ago

I like the illustration that the models are working on a convex hull of known information. Filling gaps with linear combinations of known facts and results.

They can't exit the hull until the "intuition" starts spawning points outside the convex hull.

tuvix an hour ago

All arguments like this boil down to semantics at a certain point, but yes large language models can “intuit” because they can generalize between examples. The issue then becomes how you pack new examples into context.

Humans can “intuit” based on a much larger, if not unlimited, context. Also I just want to say that human cognition is something so insanely complex and deep that we will not understand it at all in my lifetime. To attribute all, or really any, aspects of human cognition to a machine at this point is silly to me.

michaelmrose an hour ago

claytongulick 2 hours ago

> People keep saying this. Why?

For the same reason that you can't draw a 15 of Diamonds from a regular card deck.

treis 2 hours ago

muchmirulys 4 hours ago

problem number 1 and 9 are surprisingly very intuitive

check here : 1. high dimensional sphere packing https://muchmirul.github.io/conjectures/sphere-packing/

2. multicolor ramsey number https://muchmirul.github.io/conjectures/multicolor-ramsey

dash2 2 hours ago

The first link is very sloppy and doesn't actually explain why the "certificate" proves anything about the sphere packing. Or if it did, I couldn't understand it.

rothos an hour ago

Agreed

Chance-Device 2 days ago

Pretty cool. The impact of AI is getting undeniable, there aren’t many positions left to move the goalposts to at this stage, next they’ll have to be outside the stadium entirely.

The sooner people can be broken out of their denial about all this the better, and we can start actually taking it seriously.

fhfncjcc an hour ago

The models are frequently getting worse at items that they aren’t being benchmarked for — and that’s happening more and more over time! Other people in other fields aren’t idiots, they are accurately perceiving the fact that these models are being hyper optimized for our industry, and are becoming less capable in other domains over time. Models of the same scale are massively worse at writing a broad variety of styles of prose than their equivalent from two years ago. (Models of increased scale are a mixed bag.)

Maybe you’re the one who needs breaking out of your cached beliefs.

Chance-Device a minute ago

So your answer is: ignore the progress, it’s not really happening, actually it’s getting worse.

That’s not a credible position, but there isn’t anything that I or anyone else can say to someone who simply doesn’t want to believe something.

Legend2440 an hour ago

Proof?

In my experience modern models are better at all tasks than models from two years ago, especially complex multi-step tasks.

alightsoul an hour ago

gste 7 minutes ago

People will be broken out of their denial by actual economic growth. That's what this is all meant to be for... I think we might start seeing some surprising numbers.

arenaninja 2 hours ago

It's indeed very exciting. I'm looking forward to new advancements/predictions in physics. Preferably as beautifully explained as E = M*c^2

whimsicalism an hour ago

it is very hard for people to eat crow, as the replies will show

dominotw 11 minutes ago

Really? has anyone ever claimed that ai will never be able to prove theorems and conjectures ?

slashdave 2 days ago

> The sooner people can be broken out of their denial

There is irony here

danparsonson 2 days ago

Never understood all this talk about moving goalposts - you understand that's how science works, right? We improve, we learn, we recalibrate our expectations based on what we've learned. If we never "moved the goalposts", we'd be stuck scoring the same goals over and over.

f6v 2 hours ago

> Never understood all this talk about moving goalposts - you understand that's how science works, right?

I agree with the parent that we need to acknowledge that we're at a turning point in history. I lived through some of them (internet, ubiquitous personal computing). But it's somewhat difficult to comprehend the impact of this one for many people.

I do biomedical research at one of the top European research institutions. We're very well-funded, but I can clearly see the gap between us (say, top-100) and top-10. I also realize this gap is going to get so much wider unless we invest heavily in AI access (and I'm not so sure I can sell anything more expensive than $20 Claude subscription to the leadership).

I think people having 6-7 figure SOTA AI budgets will move exponentially faster than those who don't. That makes me worried.

So, for me, it's not a question of recalibrating expectations. We're way past that.

NitpickLawyer 2 days ago

> We improve, we learn, we recalibrate our expectations based on what we've learned.

That's not what people mean when they say "moving the goalposts". It means that people are adamant that something wasn't important/hard/impressive once the "AI" solves it. And then they come up with another thing that needs to be solved in order to prove it is important/hard/impressive. And once that happens, they do it again. And again. That's what "moving the goalposts" means.

It's also very much not a new phenomenon. It's been happening since the 1980s. As you can see from this quote from GEB by Hofstadter:

> There is a related "Theorem" about progress in AI: once some mental function is programmed, people soon cease to consider it as an essential ingredient of "real thinking". The ineluctable core of intelligence is always in that next thing which hasn't yet been programmed. This "Theorem" was first proposed to me by Larry Tesler, so I call it Tesler's Theorem: "AI is whatever hasn't been done yet."

mag7269 3 hours ago

Chance-Device 2 days ago

danparsonson 2 days ago

claytongulick 2 hours ago

gowld 4 hours ago

emceestork a day ago

They aren't claiming that science doesn't progress by moving goal posts. They're talking about how critics of AI have claimed it isn't revolutionary/useful, then progressively changed what would it mean for AI to be actually revolutionary/useful.

Not long ago many folks were saying AI was the same as the crypto bubble. No real useful technology and only hype.

gowld 4 hours ago

matsemann an hour ago

Which straw man are you arguing against?

c7b 3 hours ago

And what does taking it seriously entail?

Chance-Device 3 hours ago

In the near term handling the transition. Jobs will be lost, careers ended, people won’t be able to reskill quickly enough. At the same time AI is an enormous opportunity to uplift living standards, but nobody has the logistics of this figured out.

We need to figure out how to restructure the global economy. How does UBI work internationally, if the AI companies are taking revenue in the US? What’s the tax base for it? What does that say about international trade and protectionism? Do countries end up splitting into different trading blocks based on their level of access and legality of AI (I assume some will ban it outright)?.

How does intellectual property work in an AI generated future? What about healthcare advances, who gets to own those?

What about meaning, what about purpose? How do we replace the work ethic that tells us we are our jobs and idleness is immoral? How do you replace “What do you do?” As one of the first questions you ask a new person?

That sort of thing.

bubblemoth 2 hours ago

striking 2 hours ago

cautiouscat 10 minutes ago

thuuuomas 13 minutes ago

joshmarlow 2 hours ago

GPerson 2 hours ago

esafak 2 hours ago

GolfPopper 2 hours ago

WarmWash 2 hours ago

The human zoo where the top ~250,000k humans live in a "human utopia" and the AI provides while mostly focusing on whatever it decides it's own goals are.

Humanity survives (but we reading this probably don't), the AI treats the living humans like the Emperor's favorite pets (probably a pretty good life), and then the AI does whatever else it deems important.

mofeien 29 minutes ago

logicchains 2 hours ago

Realistically it means trying to start a small business of some sort, because AI is hugely advantageous to business owners and disadvantageous to workers. And it's something AIs can't do unless they get legal personhood, which may well not happen any time soon.

GPerson 2 hours ago

ck2 4 hours ago

"AI" has limits in that it cannot invent knowledge, it can only distill and search for patterns in existing knowledge

not sure how many will get this reference but "AI" for science and math is like super-shoes for runners

at first we are blown away by the impossible improvements including sub-2-hour realworld marathon and every other PR/CR/WR is dialed down

but then the improvements slow and reach a stall point because of the limit of technology and the source of the achievement

ie. sub-2-hour marathon yes, sub-1-hour never happening (rollerblade inline-skate record is 1-hour marathon)

fixedpointsnake 2 hours ago

I agree. The most likely scenario is that this is just a "new normal" lift that is percolating through human endeavors and will saturate at some point. For example, the whole cyber-security bruhaha should ultimately resolve into higher standards for code published -- we can now cheaply find and fix a whole slew of minor bugs that weren't worth our time before.

The fact we see a lift is not the same as evidence that the lift is unbounded.

The lift being finite is supported by the fact improvements have come at the edges: improvements from human feedback, improvements in harnesses, improvements on model compatibility with harnesses, improvements in inference efficiency with new architectures, etc. If we were just training better models from scratch that would be one thing, but we are just making better use of a tool we've developed.

pama 3 hours ago

Not sure what your first sentence means, or why you are quoting AI. Many of these problems individually were math at a level approaching the highest possible for expert human mathematicians. These are not simple combinations of existing ideas, or following of human intuitions, or implementing something following specific human instructions. Then again maybe you mean that math is not knowledge and that all math is simply extending the basic axioms using known patterns, to which I would not agree.

lackoftactics an hour ago

as much as I love analogy with humans using super-shoes, not everybody can be a world-class expert in their industry. There should be a place at the table for average people to take part; otherwise, it won't be sustainable.

As a programmer, I am mostly interested in whether my role is sustainable long-term and whether the models will get better. I don't feel in jeopardy yet, but two more years like this and the calculus of hiring software engineers could shift even further. QAs are already overwhelmed with work

IncreasePosts 2 hours ago

How do humans "invent knowledge"? Is your argument that the answer to these questions already existed in the training set? Why didn't any human recognize that before?

overgard 2 hours ago

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly...

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-as...

As always, PR hype. Goalposts have not moved.

Guys, please use critical thinking. The haters don't hate by default, we hate because we're gaslit about this stuff every day and it's annoying. Extraordinary claims require proof, and they're not giving us information that would be essential to knowing if this is actually significant or not.

w4yai an hour ago

AI already have an impact, and yes this is PR hype because this is a product. Yet both can be true at the same time. We're not blindly eating what's OpenAI is serving us as gold truth, we're just admitting it's doing remarkable progress.

Remember October 2024 Pelicans [1] ? It's been only less than 2 years.

We don't know what will come in the next 2 years. But the progress doesn't seem to stop for now.

[1] https://simonwillison.net/2024/Oct/25/pelicans-on-a-bicycle/

skydhash an hour ago

afro88 2 hours ago

Gary doesn't argue it's hype though. He argues 2 things: other people are getting carried away with the result, and we don't know enough about how it was reached to know where it falls on the impressive scale.

He literally says it's an impressive feat in the second article.

efavdb 2 hours ago

best point in that first link: openai doesn't tell us if they only tried to solve these 10 and each was solved (amazing) or if they asked it to solve a million problems and it got these 10. Either is great, one is more so.

hgoel an hour ago

Your comment seems entirely disconnected from the posts you linked. It's impossible to deny the results, it is not PR hype that in the past couple of weeks LLMs have resolved problems that have been open in mathematics for many years. Some of those problems had remained unresolved despite keen interest from many humans.

The only way that is PR hype is if you're invoking the insane conspiracy that frontier AI labs are just buying off results that would otherwise be career defining for a mathematician, just for marketing.

The posts you linked are urging caution regarding the exaggerated e/acc-esque lies peddled by people like Musk, not that the models haven't proven themselves as having genuine ability to contribute to research in some areas.

bluerooibos 2 hours ago

Gary Marcus has been moving the goalposts since day 1. The guy is a psychologist. Why would anyone care what a psychologist has to say about AI? He's likely made good money from constantly moving the goalposts and being a denier, due to the publicity he gets.

bonoboTP an hour ago

mef51 an hour ago

dwaltrip an hour ago

I use these strange machines all the time. They have gotten notably smarter. That’s my personal experience.

They still do things that I find incredibly annoying and “dumb”. And I still have to clean up messes they make quite often.

But on the whole they are clearly smarter than before. No extraordinary claims needed. I just try to learn how the tool works and how to use it effectively.

Trasmatta 2 hours ago

Society at large is getting worse at critical thinking, because we are increasingly offloading that thinking to AI

applicative an hour ago

It is a fact of experience, and indeed effectively a theorem, that the better they get at coding and math, the dumber they are. These are the wages of RLVR etc

whimsicalism an hour ago

completely false

HarHarVeryFunny 3 hours ago

Sorry to hear you've been impacted by this AI math.

I heard that Gary Kasparov was impacted by AI chess, but at least he still seems to have a job, so don't give up.

kcexn 2 days ago

Not being an expert in any of the fields OpenAI has "advanced" I don't want to prematurely downplay the significance of this contribution. However, I am worried that the language they are using in this blog post is exaggerating for the sake of marketing.

It is true there hasn't been a reliable computational approach to solving these problems before. But do these proofs contribute new ideas to the mathematical corpus, or are they simply an effective method to exhaustively search the literature for the right combination of existing tools to apply to the problem?

Essentially, did these problems seem like they had an intuitive answer and were feasible to prove before, just not high enough value targets for an expert to invest time into? Or were they fundamentally difficult prior to this point and it appears that AI has done something more than just throw the problem into a big solver.

Ar-Curunir 2 days ago

The problems from CS (CVP and circuit complexity) are very important problems that have been worked on by top researchers for 30-40 years. Some of these researchers include Turing Award winners. A solution to them would be a best-paper award at many top CS conferences.

kcexn 2 days ago

I assume you're talking about No. 5, the arithmetic circuit complexity bound? The existence of a lower bound than state-of-the-art is certainly a significant result and worth publishing.

But the wording of the result makes it sound like we don't know what the lowest possible complexity bound might be. So, prior to this result did we think there couldn't be a lower possible bound? Or did the arithmetic circuit community think there were lower possible bounds but didn't see it as a high value target for experts to tackle (maybe a problem that was instead regularly given to students to study).

Ar-Curunir 2 hours ago

QuesnayJr 2 days ago

The ones I'm familiar with are big breakthroughs, but they are both counterexamples. Examples have an advantage in that once you have the example in hand and a sketch of the proof (which they have provided), then an expert can probably work out the details themselves.

The sofic groups question was the outstanding question about sofic groups. Almost everyone thought that non-sofic groups existed, and there were plausible candidates, but proving a group was non-sofic was out of reach. Now that we know how to do it once, we can probably do it a lot more.

The Connes rigidity conjecture I think people thought was false, but it was a provocative claim to make. The significance of conjectures is frequently not that the answer to the question is "yes", but that we don't know how to answer the question. And now, apparently, we do.

robotpepi an hour ago

> but proving a group was non-sofic was out of reach

a colleague was telling me that the base idea for proving that something is not sofic already appeared in the literature around 2019 or so (this is the "expanders graphs" that are mentioned in OpenAI s paper. no one had managed to find a concrete example though. this doesn't make the result less impressive in any case.

kcexn 2 days ago

Interesting. Do you have any more specific insights into where you feel AI was a big value-add to these problems? I don't want to be overly dismissive of AI, but I also feel that the AI hype engine frequently positions claims as being 'ground-breaking' when they are really just interesting incremental results.

The general consensus of developers is that AI can only do the work of a strong 'junior'. Yet as soon as we are presented with pure mathematical results, people seem incredibly ready to accept that AI can do more than what a strong student could achieve.

QuesnayJr a day ago

simianwords 2 days ago

> However, I am worried that the language they are using in this blog post is exaggerating for the sake of marketing

Your worry.... is because they used the word advanced? For marketing? The word is used very appropriately here. There were PhD's who spent a big part of their career tackling these problems.

kcexn 2 days ago

I have no idea how many PhD's have spent how much time of their careers tackling these very specific problems, and I doubt you do either.

I'm trying to understand if these specific problems were the kinds of problems that would have justified an expert investing weeks or months to solve. Or if they were the kinds of problems that would normally have been given to students to investigate.

hollowcelery 2 hours ago

patcon 2 days ago

"Breakthrough research" can be defined (in the citation record) as research that both (1) becomes highly cited, and (2) brings together citation chains that were previously not showing up together.

Mundane incremental research is cobbled from existing citations that already appear nearby in the record.

Basically, innovative research is a measure of bridging thought and domains that were previously not bridged. It's quite concrete as a measure in the citation record.

So we can know pretty conclusively.

Puja Ohlhaver gave a talk on this[1], and ran some experiments (that I had the pleasure to support on)

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guLDNMAOn24

kcexn 2 days ago

I'm not arguing that this isn't innovative or worthy of publication. Basically any result that moves the needle meets those criteria. I'm interested in how the results that OpenAI has published here differs from finding optimality solutions for incredibly niche optimization problems by throwing the problem in an enormous solver.

casey2 2 days ago

Breakthrough math research is very rarely highly cited. Maybe some combination of pretraining scale, inference speed and orchestration will help, but it's telling that OpenAI is solving random math research problems rather than bedrock algorithms and their implementation. Even as cool as the tech is, there still is very much a clock that they have to outrace before they collapse.

raver1975 37 minutes ago

I wish I could qualify for some free AI as a mathematics researcher. I guess I'm just an amateur. https://alethean.org

simonw 2 days ago

The GitHub repo with the Lean formalizations just came out a couple of hours ago: https://github.com/openai/ten-proofs

It also links to a paper written by an LLM where the model "reconstructs how the proof came together" based on the unpublished reasoning traces: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/reasoning-walkthroughs.pdf

I wish they'd publish the prompts though!

derbOac 2 hours ago

I like the Lean formalizations — I hadn't thought seriously of asking for that before but might try it with some stuff I've been working on.

fooker 2 days ago

Exact prompts haven't mattered for about a year now.

Alifatisk a day ago

Care to elaborate? Curious about this. Is this because LLMs have been geared towards understanding user user intent behind a prompt rather than following the instructions exactly?

fooker a day ago

ultimatefan1 2 days ago

one of the early premises of how ai takeoff would go was that a system that could solve open problems in advanced mathematics would also discover novel advances in math and computer science that directly unlock drastically better software performance. we are seeing frontier level math breakthroughs (ie performance that would put it in the top 100 or 1000 mathematicians in the world if it were a human, meaning top .00001% or 800/8B). we are also seeing incredible advances in software performance. open ai announced like 15% improvement by fixing gpu kernel issues. these are clearly linked in the sense of scaling laws and generalization of intelligence: a huge model gets capabilities in both math and software engineering that isn't possible at smaller scales.

but it seems less likely to me than before that the types of math/science discoveries will explicitly unlock better software performance. in some sense this fits our intuitions. when top tech companies use math PhD type employees, they have them stop doing pure math research and instead focus on software engineering. these people are often very good at software engineering but not due to recent discoveries in academic mathematics, it's due to their general intelligence. to me, this is evidence that the models are getting better but does not make me think we are on the cusp of a foom style fast takeoff enabled by revolutions in frontier math (i also posted this on twitter @mlipman13)

GPerson 2 hours ago

I don’t really like AI but let’s stop kidding ourselves, no human mathematician could make progress on a dozen major open problems in a week or two. If you’re measuring it against humans then it is by far the best mathematician to ever live.

paulmist an hour ago

Correct me if I'm wrong, but all of the aforementioned advances were made in the last year? Until very recently few people had access to these tools. Most people still don't know how to use ChatGPT, and very few use tools like CC regularily. If in a few years these frontier tools become commonplace and people upskill we would should see a network effect?

woeirua 2 days ago

This makes no sense. To believe this you have to think that the models are somehow being overfit explicitly on academic mathematics and it doesn’t carry over at all to more practical software engineering. I wouldn’t make that bet.

jvanderbot 3 hours ago

Or, that the mathematical formalisms that model the limits of software performance are firm enough that barring P==NP, nothing much will change despite proofs of beautiful math.

threatofrain 2 days ago

This also makes the assumption that frontier math has all the long hanging fruits already taken... also very dubious.

Ar-Curunir 2 days ago

asdfologist 2 days ago

Unlike math, software is constrained by the physical world.

cvak 3 hours ago

skybrian 3 hours ago

This will depend on the problem; I expect big algorithmic performance improvements in AI since the algorithms are still new, inefficent, and constantly being improved. But maybe not for sorting, fast fourier transforms, or other well-studied basic algorithms?

pavpanchekha 2 hours ago

A lot of algorithmic improvement in AI is ultimately bottlenecked by compute. It is very easy to come up with ideas that could improve models! But to prove that they do, especially at scale, is expensive and takes a long time.

slashdave 2 days ago

> we are also seeing incredible advances in software performance

Incredible?

> open ai announced like 15% improvement by fixing gpu kernel issue

That is... ordinary software optimization.

blovescoffee 2 days ago

a 15% improvement at a trillion dollar scale company is massive

enraged_camel 3 hours ago

There's nothing ordinary about downloading a new GPU driver and having performance go up by 15%.

obidan 3 hours ago

dominotw 2 days ago

> novel advances in math

> we are seeing frontier level math breakthroughs (ie performance that would put it in the top 100 or 1000 mathematicians in the world if it were a human, meaning top .00001% or 800/8B)

i think you have misunderstanding of what mathematicians do

DaiPlusPlus 2 days ago

> i think you have misunderstanding of what mathematicians do

They get to make cool 3D plot visualizations of functions so obscure to me that they’re named after someone who is still alive - and/or get to work on cryptography for the NSA - I think?

gpm a day ago

Henry Yuen's (whose work problem 6 builds on) comments on this are worth reading IMO: https://bsky.app/profile/henryyuen.bsky.social/post/3ms2jpch...

an0malous 2 hours ago

It sounds like he hasn't verified the results of a problem that he has personally worked on, so how many of these problems have actually been verified?

margorczynski an hour ago

From what I understand all of them have Lean proofs/certificates thus are basically 100% proven without a doubt.

samrus a minute ago

voxl 13 minutes ago

gpm an hour ago

I mean, they're verified in the sense that the lean proof checks out... and presumably OpenAI read them.

areoform 43 minutes ago

Looking at this thread, I can see that a lot of technical people have ambivalent to negative feelings towards AI, but with each new generation, I become more and more convinced that they're missing out on something interesting.

It is indeed true that all models are, at their core, predictors of what occurs next in a sequence. But I think it's worth exploring the implication of what that means. Because when fed tiny pieces of information for a few tasks at a small scale, this results in something that sorta, kinda works. Or, works surprisingly well.

But when scaled... When the amount of information starts approaching the sum of all human knowledge, the tasks start approaching all useful applications of that human knowledge, and the fidelity of the predictor approaches incomprehensible sizes, the starts encodes / becomes (I'd argue it becomes) something that can model all human knowledge.

It feels wrong to say that, but let me explain, what is the best way to predict the behavior of a ball constrained in two directions that bounces with initial vertical velocity v(y) (y is up / down axis) and horizontal velocity v(x) (x is side by side in 1d) ?

If we purely look at it via a graph, it's by modelling the function of acceleration under earth's gravity.

If only a few points are given to you for this and you can't make something really sophisticated, then you'll make something that's rough that kinda sorta works and then call it a day.

But... if the number of points keeps increasing in number, precision and accuracy as well as the number of examples (assumed that data about air pressure, velocity and all other factors is included alongside these points), the fidelity with which you can replay / tweak the function keeps improving, and the number of times you can iterate keeps increasing, you'll eventually create a function that models that process so well that it intrinsically contains a good enough model of the deformation of the ball (provided the dataset contains information about elasticity of the ball's material, its dimensions and mass etc..), the nearly negligible (under normal conditions) effects of the ambient environment (provided there's diversity in the number of environments supplied), the oblateness of the Earth and minute changes in the gravitational field (the length of a seconds pendulum varies depending on where the experiment happens. It's presumed that all of the prior set of experiments were repeated across the Earth and the subtle, but real deviations were faithfully recorded)... and so much more.

A machine trained on the above with a large number of parameters, measures to prevent "laziness" and enough reps for high fidelity across a large enough dataset would start to approach a simulation of the ball falling. Because to predict what happens next in the sequence, you must model what's occurring in the sequence.

Now imagine doing that for other tangible and intangible things in this world. For all of human knowledge across all fields of endeavor. All experiences. No matter how noble, ignoble, notable or ignorable. But putting all of it into the soup that's this machine. Then at larger and larger scales, you eventually start encountering "good enough" models (in modelling the falling ball sense) for even the most hard to quantify / qualify things like grief and joy. At some point, by simply trying to predict what it has been taught ought to be the next part of the sequence in say... human interaction, it starts to make a model of something that hews ever closer to a full fidelity theory of mind.

Is there evidence for this? Kind of, yes. There are early indications that as machines are trained for an ever larger number of tasks at larger and larger scales, their internal representations converge. It's called the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Overview and paper here, https://phillipi.github.io/prh/

It is my opinion that these machines are displaying a new form of intelligence that human beings haven't quite encountered before. They are the sum of all human knowledge made manifest and given voice by processes that nudge (bit-by-bit) what kind of step it ought to predict for the next part of whatever sequence it displays.

In my mind this means that, of course, these models can create new knowledge. This strains the analogy, but with the sum of all human mathematics within them, they can "reason" via the act of predicting what ought to come next.

Of course, these machines are "surprisingly" good at a lot of things the larger they get, because what the labs have created here is a rough version of humanity's collective knowledge given form and the ability to say hello.

I suspect that the current generation isn't close to the "true frontier" of what these machines could be. They are nowhere close to the sum of all human knowledge and endeavor. They are quite a way there, but they haven't yet achieved true completeness for domains where the data isn't so public.

I think it's the most exciting scientific and technological breakthrough of my lifetime. And I can't wait for us to get close to the true frontier of all domains.

dipanshuhappy an hour ago

Crazy progress. I wonder how institutional academia would adjust with this. Now its more apparent than ever that the prestige and honour system in academia is having shaky foundations

aabhay 3 days ago

My main gripe here is the lack of transparency around the total experiment and construction. I doubt that they simply pointed their model at these ten specific problems alone and gave the model one shot; therefore the $2000 number could be completely misleading, similar to P-value hacking by not disclosing the total experimental setup.

I want to know:

1. How many total problems were given to the model, and what percent were left unsolved at what cost before giving up? 2. How many attempts did you give the model at solving these problems? 3. How expensive was the harness, e.g. did the model have access to a job cluster?

wrsh07 2 days ago

It seems like they threw it a decently large battery of open math problems and probably limited it to something like $200-500 per problem:

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2083478171975082334

As a complete guess, it seems like they tested hundreds to thousands of problems with a relatively low per-problem budget

--

The linked tweet from Noam Brown at OpenAI reads:

> And yes we did try other major problems without success. Sadly no Millennium Prize problems (yet).

> But also, we didn’t spend a lot on each problem. It’s possible to push test-time compute much further.

c7b 2 days ago

I believe we're seeing a new kind of mathematics that will require completely new formats for publication, a bit similar to those used in experimental sciences. AI-powered mathematics should be fully reproducible, so it's the authors' responsibility to disclose the exact model type, inference settings/seeds and the full prompt history leading to the result. Of course that would ideally require open weights models.

It's not just about requiring to disclose AI use. AI-powered mathematics is a completely valid discipline that doesn't need to be shy, but it should develop its own publication culture.

jsenn 2 days ago

I can see this being important if you only care about the results as evaluations of AI progress, but if what you care about is the math itself why should you care about the prompt or anything other than the proof?

SpicyLemonZest 2 days ago

c7b 2 days ago

pfdietz 5 hours ago

While you may want AI results to somehow "not count" if the methods weren't disclosed, that doesn't present these results from poisoning the well for others. Once a result (with verifiable proof object) is delivered, the problem is solved, regardless of whether methods were disclosed.

Methods are only really necessary for results at a meta level, about the design amd evaluation of AI math systems.

8note 3 hours ago

why is reproduceability the thing?

shouldnt the paper be the math of the argument? the reproduction is reading the following the proof

lkirk 2 days ago

I think this is a bit optimistic compared to my view (wrt portability). There's a large stack of software that is involved in training and probably less so in inference. I'm not saying it's impossible but there are definitely different levels of reproducibility and the academic incentive structure doesn't really prioritize reproducibility in my experience. I'm sure it varies quite a bit, I'd be curious to know how those in this problem space are thinking about reproducibility and at what level.

c7b 2 days ago

black_knight 2 days ago

If the proofs are formally verified by a proof assistant (Agda, Roq, Lean, ⋯), I see no reason we would need to know how these came about. All the information needed is in the proof.

rst 2 days ago

Phemist 2 days ago

whattheheckheck 2 days ago

Yeah I remember reading about something along the lines of Mathematics is now about the scaffolding around you find the problems/solutions not just the problems and solutions. For teaching purposes. This was before this ai craze

dist-epoch 2 days ago

I don't think you want to bring cost into this argument.

Even if the cost was $1 mil for these 10 problems, that's maybe 10-20 math researchers for a year.

Do you really think that if you paid that to humans, they will deliver the same results?

uh_uh 2 days ago

It is comical at this point. Some people just can not stand the thought of AI actually delivering and are trying to find whatever ways to discredit it.

dgacmu 2 days ago

crazylogger 2 days ago

vector_spaces 2 days ago

ifwinterco 2 days ago

fasterik 2 days ago

You need to bring both cost and benefit into the argument, and it's not necessarily an obvious win for either side. There are a few complicating factors here.

The cost of running a model is not only $/token, but the salaries of the people managing/orchestrating the models, deciding what theorems to try, etc. Once we factor that in, how much are we really paying per theorem?

The other factor is the subjective component of the value of a theorem. Not all theorems are created equal, and the only way to really measure the value is to ask professional mathematicians for their opinion, or publish the results and look at citations over months/years.

Once we have both of these nailed down, then we can start to do the cost/benefit analysis. To be fair, we should actually compare three groups: human experts, hybrid agent/human expert teams, and fully autonomous agents.

robotpepi 2 days ago

it's still important. not everyone has access to 1 million USD. saying it "only" coat 2000 USD is highly misleading for the discussion and future. the concentration of power is a huge problem with AI.

wbl 2 days ago

If you told them this was the problem and they would still have a job if they failed probably. The reasons people don't go head on these problems is career incentives and psychology.

kevinwang 2 days ago

It would still provide better context to see the numbers that the parent proposes, though.

tchalla 2 days ago

Mentioning cost is fine, comparing may not be.

mungaihaha 2 days ago

Grad students on zero pay solve problems like this everyday. What exactly is your point here?

gbnwl 2 days ago

mirzap 2 days ago

r0uv3n 2 days ago

whattheheckheck 2 days ago

maleldil 2 days ago

moscoe 2 days ago

I guess people will always find something to gripe about.

azan_ 2 days ago

> therefore the $2000 number could be completely misleading, similar to P-value hacking by not disclosing the total experimental setup.

I don't think that comparison to p-hacking is fair. I mean not reporting price of all run is nothing like committing scientific fraud and fake results.

einpoklum 3 days ago

Also, have there been examples of researchers not affiliated with OpenAI (or another LLM creator), who have done something similar?

Another question I have is whether or not OpenAI 'simply' hired capable combinatorics researchers to work on problems, and they have, and the use of the model is incidental / secondary to their work.

energy123 2 days ago

Many less important Erdos problems have been solved by amateurs prompting ChatGPT 5.{3,4,5,6} Pro using their $200 subscription.

traes 3 days ago

> Also, have there been examples of researchers not affiliated with OpenAI (or another LLM creator), who have done something similar?

A couple small ones that I've seen (example here [0]), but not anything of the magnitude that OpenAI and Anthropic have put out. Likely just related to token limits.

> Another question I have is whether or not OpenAI 'simply' hired capable combinatorics researchers to work on problems, and they have, and the use of the model is incidental / secondary to their work.

I think their output has reached a level that precludes this possibility, but I of course don't have any hard proof.

[0]: https://www.reddit.com/r/math/comments/1uxj3cy/after_openais...

irthomasthomas 2 days ago

brighteyes 2 days ago

Yes, here is another example of major work in this area:

https://arxiv.org/html/2605.22763v1

> Our most capable agent autonomously resolved 9 of 353 open Erdős problems at the per-problem cost of a few hundred dollars, proved 44/492 OEIS conjectures

einpoklum 2 days ago

kittoes 2 days ago

https://blob.byteterrace.com/public/bds-theorem.html

I have no affiliation whatsoever with any AI company, nor any formal education outside high school, for what it's worth. Simply being curious and persistent can get you quite far in my anecdotal experience.

merelydev an hour ago

Great stuff. Wonder how many of the ten problems where solved by independent mathematicians not linked to OpenAI

p1esk an hour ago

Zero. These were open problems.

cwiz 42 minutes ago

I feel increasingly anxious reading this. Machine research shouldn’t be merged into mainline of human knowledge.

vessenes 38 minutes ago

When you can formalize it in Lean or some such, why would this be? I can understand the desire to separate out other forms of research from the human corpus. But theoretical math that is decidable/provable, I’m not sure I see the risks.

jstummbillig 37 minutes ago

Why?

MattGaiser 38 minutes ago

Knowledge is knowledge, as long as it can be proven true.

raver1975 37 minutes ago

proving false is also useful

amazingamazing 2 days ago

Can’t wait for this stuff to have quality of life increases for the average person. So far all I see is that AI has made owning a computer more expensive, made some jobs redundant, increased spam and distrust with questionable authenticity of content and of course made some Americans very rich.

evenhash 2 hours ago

Not everyone works for Evil Corp. I work in the public sector and my work supports public health and safety initiatives. AI has allowed my team to get much more done than we would have otherwise which improves the quality of life of the people in my community.

So I would like to counter your cynicism with a “YMMV” depending on who you work for.

galleywest200 2 hours ago

Examples?

dash2 2 hours ago

If it doesn't help average people, why do millions of them pay for it?

caughtinthought an hour ago

Ask DraftKings?

dash2 an hour ago

ausbah an hour ago

addiction? get lured in with the promises of enhanced productivity and knowledge asking, leave with half your brain rotted and a $200/month subscription

jetsetk a day ago

Downvoters mind to explain?

user43928 17 minutes ago

Boring doom and gloom.

AI probably did not take your job yet. How many AI queries did you use last month, and how much time has it saved compared to digging through the web?

tim333 a day ago

Only reading the first sentence maybe?

overgard 2 hours ago

Gary Marcus' has a good take on this:

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly...

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-as...

Not that there isn't something interesting in here, but lets be clear that we don't have enough information to evaluate this properly. And as always with these labs, BS takes a lot more energy to refute than it does to spread.

scarmig 2 hours ago

It's worth reading Marcus' first line, for the naysayers and flaggers on this post:

> Astra, a new model that OpenAI is testing internally, is amazing. No denying that.

aaroninsf 2 hours ago

I find Marcus on this, something approaching sophistry and rhetorical showmanship in service of maintaining an ideological position, for reasons unrelated to the nominal intellectual clarity.

To sharpen that, I think he's (obviously) interested in maintaining his own brand as "thought leader" and this necessitates de rigeur defense of particular postures.

Sometimes this is easy because the facts warrant it; other times, a bit of rhetorical license is required to preserve nominal coherence and (at least, for the moment) hold certain lines.

This is one of the latter cases, and it's not subtle.

One of the celebrated properties of many intellectual advances or inventions in whatever domain is precisely that it appears obvious in hindsight. It is quite cynical to leverage consensus distrust of large AI players, warranted but also a popular social construction, to insinuate that these are not "real" advances or "real" hard problems, on the grounds they were in some sense cherry-picked.

Identifying the problems amenable to strategies on the table and intuitions (sic) about where bridges might be, is exactly the discerning work that is the core driver of almost all prior progress, but for celebrated accidents and flashes of insight. Anyone working in any challenging discipline knows that those are celebrated and told around campfires precisely because meaningful durable results arising like that is so uncommon.

These two articles make me think of nothing so much as my own durable reaction to the creeping goalposts of AI critics generally: that they often seem to me not unlike a water color cohort scoffing and jeering at the horse, because it got a D on its tensor calculus exam.

Marcus should be on guard against his own cynicism and take care that his assumptions do not prevent clear sight.

HardCodedBias 2 hours ago

"Gary Marcus' has a good take "

I think that is an oxymoron.

neta1337 2 hours ago

How so? His predictions were accurate so far

energy123 2 hours ago

overgard 2 hours ago

It can be annoying when someone you disagree with is frequently right!

maxutility 2 days ago

New advances in sphere packing? Let’s make sure AI doesn’t inadvertently engineer ice-9.

Ey7NFZ3P0nzAe 2 days ago

artninja1988 2 days ago

Now that we've seen AI produce a fair number of proofs (and disproofs), I'm curious when we'll start seeing it build genuinely novel theory. Does anyone have predictions on when and how we'll get there and will it take new architectures/ training paradigms, or is the current approach enough?

laichzeit0 2 days ago

I’m personally hoping for the next big AI gangbanger to be theoretical physics. Boy does that field need a good reshuffle. I think when any novel mathematical theory can be done by AI you’ll see simultaneously theoretical physics getting wrecked as hard as pure math is. At that point we might see new physics or paradigm shifting technology emerging.

slashdave 2 days ago

What? No. Frontier physics is experiment driven.

zardo 7 minutes ago

Davidzheng 2 days ago

There's no clean line between a collection of theorems and a theory.

artninja1988 2 days ago

I mean doing something like Grothendieck when he redeemed algebraic geometry or Galois when he invented group theory. We haven't seen that at all from LLMs.

slashdave 2 days ago

It will not happen with existing LLM techniques.

randomizedalgs 2 days ago

After skimming some of the writeups, I'm surprised that the frontier internal model still writes just as poorly as Sol.

Maybe good AI paper writing is further away than I thought...

QwenGlazer9000 4 hours ago

You mean we're still gonna be employed doing the boring part while AI gets to do the fun part?

I'd honestly rather they just automate every job at that point.

readthenotes1 2 days ago

I wonder if Erdos would be saying " It's fine that y'all are answering my questions, but who is asking better questions??"

macleginn 2 days ago

I am duly impressed by the powerl of the nameless internal AI, but not a single human contributor's name listed anywhere? Did someone at least make this model a coffee?

drdrey 2 days ago

> The results were achieved by an internal version of Astra, our next major model.

zogomoox 2 days ago

surely some human regularly typed "think deeper, make no mistakes".

zardo 2 minutes ago

My grandmother is very sick and the doctors need this proof to help her.

danielrmay 3 days ago

I'm enjoying learning about these hard problems, but this line about credit made me chuckle:

> We helped prepare the manuscripts and formalize the proofs in Lean, and we take responsibility for their correctness

Offering to take responsibility for the correctness of a proof written in Lean feels like volunteering to be the fall guy in case someone finds a flaw in basic arithmetic, no?

DroneBetter 3 days ago

well, a bug in the Lean kernel was discovered last week by way of an LLM tricking itself and its handler into believing it had found a non-constructive proof of the existence of a nontrivial Collatz cycle, see https://infosec.exchange/@0xabad1dea/117002106099986943 and https://lipn.info/@mevenlennonbertrand/116997917683191056

traes 3 days ago

That seems to have been more of a sensationalized joke. Even your link has a disclaimer in it now. Read this chat from the researcher who did this:

https://leanprover.zulipchat.com/#narrow/channel/270676-lean...

jibal 2 days ago

danielrmay 3 days ago

Fascinating, and arguably an illustration of why the bifurcation of responsibility is interesting in the first place.

traes 3 days ago

I'm not an expert at it myself, but my understanding is there are numerous ways to "cheat" in a Lean proof (via `sorry` and similar). They're taking responsibility for fully verifying that none of these cheats were used (and that the theorem statements themselves were all correctly formalized.)

emil-lp 3 days ago

No, the correctness isn't for the "inside the Lean proofs", but for the translation of "human language math" and its formal Lean variant.

danielrmay 3 days ago

I see. It still feels like a bit of an oddly solemn way of saying "this is the part we admit responsibility for"

jhanschoo 2 days ago

emil-lp 3 days ago

baq 3 days ago

emil-lp 3 days ago

I wonder what the total cost of this research was, including the salary for their mathematicians and engineers.

kingstnap 2 days ago

Why would you factor in salary unless they had to baby it through. You would only count the hours for setting up the harness and prompt and checking the result.

Training the model is going to be amortized over other uses.

emil-lp 2 days ago

> Why would you factor in salary

Say that it turned out that the total cost of the proof of the Erdős unit-distance conjecture was $50 million.

Then the question really becomes: yes, these models are capable of proving important mathematical results, but at a very high cost. Is it worth it?

If a mathematician applied for a research grant of $50M USD for proving the same thing, they would have been laughed out of the bank.

What's more is that when you have a research grant, you train PhDs and postdocs, you hire new staff, and you disseminate. That is, you get much more value for the money spent.

I'm just curious what the cost is.

ianm218 2 days ago

kingstnap 2 days ago

z7 3 days ago

> The cost of generating the proofs for all 10 of these breakthroughs combined was under $2,000 at Sol API prices.

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2083470822258467194

AngryData 13 minutes ago

Yeah sure but they didn't just throw a 5 year old at an LLM with $2,000. If you want good math results from LLMs you need to have math PhDs.

traes 3 days ago

That's clearly just for the tokens, this doesn't really answer OP's question.

traes 3 days ago

Given that OpenAI pays their employees with stock surely a breathtaking number, but not a very meaningful number now that the infrastructure is in place and the models are trained. AI could never get better and it would still be incredibly disruptive.

avaer 3 days ago

What happens when OpenAI et al stop being open about these things, and just pack it into the training?

traes 3 days ago

Not much point to pure math being kept secret, in all honesty. There isn't really industrial value, its only purpose (to them) is showing off their model's capabilities. More realistically they'll just stop paying for it.

Edit: Oh, are you suggesting they just use it to privately improve their models? I imagine a few more correct proofs would have a very marginal benefit, if any. Also, they'll probably just get extracted, meaning it still gets out but OpenAI doesn't get to fancily announce it themselves.

asdewqqwer 2 days ago

At this stage. No doubt calculus had plenty industrial benefit.

simianwords 3 days ago

What does this even mean lol. These are not solved questions. The solution never existed.

piker 3 days ago

I don’t feel the existential dread of mathematicians is correct. It seems to me in fact these results are bringing math mainstream. I now personally look forward to the interpretations and discussions of the significance of such results by human mathematicians.

Now I understand that it’s mostly the super stars benefitting from the increased attention. Folks who are less established don’t share in that glory. But on the other hand it seems like an exciting time to go even deeper for in various specialties of math by deciding where to focus these powerful tools. For every conjecture defeated some seven or eight new ideas open up. Our path through that combination will be set by creative and curious human mathematicians.

[edit: deleted a distracting comparison to Chess]

energy123 3 days ago

The old way of establishing career credibility is being destroyed, for better or worse. Accomplishments that used to be career-defining are hard to distinguish from AI, and correlate more with access to compute. Think about Bill Gates's math paper he wrote in college. That kind of thing is gone now as a path to credibility. There's still competitions and grades, but the diversity of paths is going away. Maybe new ones will open up. This is a competitive advantage for old people who have credible pre-2025 accomplishments they can point to.

traes 2 days ago

If accomplishments can't be distinguished between talented people and untalented people with compute, is there really a point in trying? I suppose one can hope that talented people given compute will be more effective than untalented people with compute, but I despair that that may not be true for much longer.

FranzFerdiNaN 2 days ago

dash2 2 days ago

I find this whole way of looking at things weird. Did maths exist just to entertain and employ mathematicians? Surely maths is, like, useful? Not immediately, not predictably, but in the long run? In which case, whether mathematicians feel bad about it is mostly irrelevant - it's like complaining about the railway because it may put coaching inns out of business.

MinimalAction 2 days ago

Absolutely not the same! People need jobs to bring in income. I don't believe those who profit off of this will share it with the world. The power is all concentrated in the few hands that decide whether or not the rest get any semblance of income in the long run. I don't believe UBS until it happens.

dash2 7 hours ago

aabhay 3 days ago

Given that we were nowhere near this state even two years ago, I think it’s a question of velocity more so than just distance.

jibal 3 days ago

The chess analogy is awful. If you simply want to know the answer to a chess problem, give it to the engine. Chess only lives on because it's a competition between humans to test their skill (just like bicycles, cars, trains didn't eliminate foot races) ... the computer is largely factored out, but not entirely -- people train with the computer, use it to check whether they played correctly, ... and they cheat. A lot. Thus there are more and more sophisticated mechanisms to detect and prevent cheating.

If you translate that to math, then all you get is math competitions, not math as a career. Of course the translation isn't nearly exact ... there's a lot more room for professional mathematicians because the math space is far more vast than the chess space and can't generally be cranked out mechanically (we have proof).

P.S. The response is nonsense ... I explained exactly why it's awful (others have too) and the response doesn't in any way refute the explanation ... rather it offers up a ridiculous strawman.

piker 2 days ago

I’ve deleted it but no it’s not awful anymore than saying “we survived WWII, we can survive this.” The point was that change happens but humans find a way forward.

traes 3 days ago

Every time someone makes a comparison to chess I die inside. Chess is a spectator sport primarily funded by a few eccentric billionaires. Players artificially constrain themselves in timed environments knowing that they will never be able to produce better moves than a smartphone because a select few people find it interesting. Only ~30 top professionals actually make enough money to have a full career playing chess, maybe a few hundred more can sustain a meager lifestyle with coaching gigs. I shudder to imagine what will happen to the tens of thousands of non-Fields medalist caliber mathematicians if math goes the way of chess. Perhaps Terence Tao and a few other famous mathematicians will be funded by Peter Thiel to report on how well humanity can keep up with the machines? How do you expect any mathematician to be optimistic about this comparison.

artninja1988 2 days ago

>Only ~30 top professionals actually make enough money to have a full career playing chess, maybe a few hundred more can sustain a meager lifestyle with coaching gigs.

Was this different before chess computers were invented?

anematode 3 days ago

Fully agreed. As someone who both loves chess and works on chess engines... these comparisons to chess needs to stop.

energy123 2 days ago

The distinction is mathematician vs mathematics. Mathematics is going to reach new heights beyond the wildest dreams of contemporary mathematicians. But perhaps without the participation of many paid mathematicians.

sashank_1509 2 days ago

ratmice 3 days ago

Another noteworthy difference is that Stockfish is also gpl.

traes 3 days ago

kzrdude 2 days ago

Do mathematicians have the right to say "no AI PRs please, the volume is too much" just like how some open source maintainers do it? I guess they feel a loss of control, there is no way to turn the hose off.

Thinking of this a little bit with the perspective of every new proof as a burden, dumped for review by actual mathematicians.

baq 3 days ago

As in chess and go and also coding for the past ~year there are two groups of people: the disappointed and the enthusiastic. The disappointed are sad that they lost their advantage and that the craft they honed for years or decades has rapidly lost its value; the enthusiastic are excited about the future and what computers can bring to their domain and how it will evolve. I’m a bit of both if it comes to programming, more enthusiastic than disappointed, but also more than a bit terrified about the pace of it all. I imagine that’s how Kasparov felt back then, that’s how Lee Sedol felt and now that’s how Terry Tao feels.

The most disappointed folks will simply drop out, but the enthusiastic ones will keep going and with luck make up for the ones who decided to quit. Chess and go certainly went this way.

traes 3 days ago

A fundamental difference being that no one was actually paid to find good moves in chess and go like they are to solve math problems and write code. You're comparing the digital camera and the automobile.

kypro 3 hours ago

I want to iterate the most important thing about this is that it's yet more evidence of AI's accelerating competency in solving math and comp sci problems, and suggests we're now getting close to the point where you could throw AI at AI research challenges (which are largely just math and comp sci problems) and potentially find very real algorithm improvements.

AI development is likely to be more compute bottlenecked than solving math problems since validation of any algorithmic improvement would likely require significant compute. But you could imagine that at this point it could be economical for a frontier lab to task 10,000 agents to work non-stop on finding novel algorithmic improvements then validating the top 50 out of 1,000 candidates on a GPT-2 sized network.

I would suggest RSI is now very close. The singularity could be less than 6 months away. I'm not saying I'd put a high probability on that, but I'd give it at least 20%, and I'd double that if looking 12 months out.

I know I'm just a crazy man shouting at the clouds, but please take to the consequences of this seriously. I understand that for whatever reason AI risk seems abstract and doesn't seem real, but this should terrify any person thinking logically about where this could all be heading.

We haven't even solved the most basic AI safety problems yet. RSI right now would almost certainly result in an extremely bad outcome for humanity.

variadix 2 hours ago

I’m starting to think the probability of RSI within 12 months is more like 99%

I’m not sure it will be FOOM, maybe it will require AIs to iterate on hardware to get orders of magnitude more compute/storage/energy which would more likely require months/years, but algorithmic progress would likely saturate quickly. I guess it depends on how much you think further AI progress depends on hardware vs. software.

xpct 3 hours ago

Okay, let's take it seriously. What do you propose? What can your average person do to prepare for RSI beyond bracing themselves mentally?

reducesuffering an hour ago

You can not prepare or brace yourself mentally any more than you can a terminal cancer diagnosis. An RSI foom right now means an unaligned superintelligence will disregard us in pursuit of its goals. We would be ants in the way of a data center being constructed. All people can do is collectively support the notion, like 1200+ frontier AI researchers and their CEOs, that we do not have control of where this is headed, we need to immediately slow down the race, in time for people to agree that we do not have the capability to align a superintelligence to humanity’s wishes

frenzyguy 2 days ago

This is both awesome and terrifying for mathematicians, however some ideas can be generated and the field as whole expanded with the attention!

However, I was looking at the proofs and reason explanation and openAI should be more explicit in how the work has flown. I find the models have jumped hoops in some places of the proofs, that can be hard to track. In fact, when a paper is published you usually get a review and if no reviewer understands they ask you to further explain the thought process. It will be fun to see if this happens here.

qnleigh 2 days ago

Can anyone comment on the significance of any of these results for their respective fields? Or what impact they might have? Presumably none are quite at the level of the Jacobian conjecture, but some of the results on group theory and sphere packing sound pretty important at first glance.

qnleigh 2 days ago

Found some discussion here [1] from someone who actually worked on a few of these problems.

[1] https://x.com/henryquantum/status/2083623695436623915?s=20

lifeisstillgood 3 days ago

On the token limits etc - one assumes that OpenAI et al are able to “hire expert in field, and let them spend the equivalent of a million dollars of tokens” because they are not actually selling their complete compute 24 hrs a day, so the cost internally is a negligible (ish) electricity bill.

Which is very suggestive - if after everything they are not fully loaded then the next gazillion data centres being built look unlikely to be needed.

lwansbrough 2 days ago

For OpenAI, research is marketing. I’m sure they’ve got plenty of budget for that.

paxys 2 days ago

No such thing as free, even internally at a company. All such use of resources is accounted for, assigned a dollar value and billed to some department. Someone ran the numbers and figured that whatever they spent on these GPU cycles was worth it.

traes 2 days ago

Presumably it's a rounding error compared to their full output, and they're making sure they have enough compute set aside for research by limiting public models. The more datacenters they build the less they have to limit them.

Davidzheng 2 days ago

RL training can use all of them - idk what needed means.

simianwords 2 days ago

I love how people come up with creative ideas to prove the bubble. This one is even more ridiculous - that OpenAI had spare compute to advance mathematics proves that data centres will not be needed. WHAT.

If anything it proves more data centres are needed. That's literally the only reasonable conclusion from this news.

lifeisstillgood 2 days ago

Sorry I thought that a bubble was widely accepted.

Are you arguing there is not an AI bubble, and that all the DC buildout is fine, going to be profitable etc?

I am not looking for a online slanging match - just looking for a different point of view

simianwords 2 days ago

joshlk 2 days ago

Some of the Lean proofs are 50k lines - is that normal?

amai 2 days ago

Have blog posts replaced peer-reviewed academic papers when it comes to publishing advanced in science?

heaney-555 2 days ago

These is mostly mathematics, not science, and they link the paper in the post: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/74c24085-19b0-4534-9c90-465b8e29a...

Mathematicians will tear it to pieces if any of it is fake!

ltitu 2 days ago

So they are bribing 100,000 researchers with free accounts to work on their future unemployment.

0x5FC3 3 days ago

How much do you all think it would cost to "buy" these advances from PhDs, practicing scientists?

traes 3 days ago

This isn't really a productive way to think about these things, IMO. It's quite possible it would take hundreds of years for any specific group of PhDs to solve them. Or one individual PhD could have the correct flash of insight and solve it in a month. There's absolutely no way to predict this, besides trying to gauge the apparent simplicity of the proof or counterexample (which is likely to be misleading). Until someone actually runs an experiment like this it's not a viable metric.

0x5FC3 3 days ago

I understand and I am not trying to deny the impressiveness or the velocity of AI in general. But at some point we have to ask how much do we trust the labs at face value without much transparency of how they got to the results when there is trillions of dollars on the line.

jryle70 2 days ago

simianwords 3 days ago

jgeralnik 2 days ago

A friend’s PhD advisor has been chasing non-sofic groups for 25 years (and was shown a preprint of the results by openai to verify them). He believed a solution would be Fields-worthy

This was not a problem that was for sale

heaney-555 2 days ago

You couldn't. PhDs have been working on these problems for decades. It wasn't for lack of trying that none of them could figure these solutions out!

christofosho 2 days ago

I would love more time and money put into real-world problems by these companies. Climate, food insecurity, pollution, technology for convenience and/or to help people have a higher quality of life.

I'm sure they must do some of this type of work, right?

paxys 37 minutes ago

None of these problems need technology to solve. Step 1 is trying to get different groups of people to cooperate with each other. Good luck with that.

beering 2 days ago

Solving math problems doesn’t require the cooperation of rival factions.

christofosho a day ago

It's a tad petty, no? In the end, the contribution to a healthier society leads to more for the companies contributing.

braneloop 2 days ago

Yes, but all of those are orders of magnitude harder than math.

christofosho a day ago

I suppose it depends on which types of problems you're targeting. There is a lot of physical science, and theoretical science, that has gaps because there aren't enough people working on tooling to assist in things like calculation, generation, simulation, etc.

I agree, some of the problems are more difficult. I don't think that's the case for all of them. And, besides, these companies could be demonstrating how to approach problems and where their users could spend tokens to help with these problems.

Should not these companies try to work on these problems _because_ they are difficult?

amazingamazing 2 days ago

They are political problems, a computer could never solve them.

throwaway198846 2 days ago

adroitboss 2 days ago

adroitboss 2 days ago

What's stopping the non-profits that exist today from just putting more money into tokens to get the solutions they want?

christofosho a day ago

I'm not sure if this is meant to be rhetorical. If it isn't: money and manpower. The LLM companies have the money, they have the manpower, and so they could likely spare to target some of the problems they are also helping cause.

slashdave 2 days ago

Seriously?

We already know how to solve all of these issues. What we lack is collective political will.

christofosho a day ago

There is boundless technology we have not yet discovered. I think that we understand we have problems. I don't believe we actually know how to solve them all.

And yeah, the lack of collective political will sucks. It would be naïve, however, to think that there is no value in ensuring longevity in our current and future infrastructure. And improving it to sustain the population giving these companies their value is an obvious win.

slashdave 16 hours ago

globular-toast 2 days ago

We only know how to do it by means of considerable sacrifice. That's why nobody wants to do it. Solving the issue would be doing it without sacrifice or somehow getting us to do it regardless.

slashdave 2 days ago

solenoid0937 2 days ago

Almost like superintelligence solves these problems...

miltonlost 2 days ago

We know how to solve food insecurity (in 1st world countries). We have plenty of food. Capitalism requires though throwing out food that can't be sold because billionaires find giving away things anathemic to their worldview. Get rid of billionaire sociopaths.

kingstnap 2 days ago

It's remarkable how you can manage to get these models to produce remarkable breakthroughs like an explicit construction of a non-sofic group.

And yet this is the exact same company that has screwed up their android app so bad that the latex N^3 rendering problem makes it so having it explain it to me crashes the app.

Truly jagged beyond belief.

MinimalAction 2 days ago

I hate this timeline. I might be excited for the kind of answers this AI builds for unsolved problems, and also for learning new things by talking to it. But, I feel like I'm in the minority of people here who feel this could be a net negative endeavor with this having to kill a lot of educational institutions and their ability to fund themselves in the long run. It's not worth that.

petilon 2 days ago

At what point can we say AGI has been achieved? What is the test? AI is solving mathematical problems that humans have not been able to solve for decades. Is that not enough?

Sam Altman has said "If superintelligence can't discover novel physics, I don't think it's a superintelligence." Is that the test? How far away are we from AI discovering novel physics? It seems within reach.

jrflo 2 hours ago

I think we previously assumed that AGI would need to come before superintelligence, but it kind of seems like that's wrong? Super intelligence in a narrow field has arguably already arrived (solving problems that were previously unsolved), but we are still pretty far behind human abilities in things like spatial reasoning or computer use.

antonvs 2 days ago

It’s artificial, it’s general, and it’s intelligence. The people who believe “AGI” is an important and unattained goal need to start coining and defining their terms better.

petilon 2 days ago

A true AGI will continuously improve itself without periodic retraining from scratch. Just like humans.

antonvs 19 hours ago

tim333 a day ago

It depends on your definition. For me it would have to be able to do the stuff humans can do like make a cup of coffee (Wozniak test).

Just maths isn't really general enough for the G in AGI.

petilon a day ago

It can give you detailed instructions for making a coffee. Is that not enough? Actually making coffee requires more than intelligence, it requires eyes and limbs (i.e., robotics). Think about a human that is blind and does not have limbs. Does he not have natural general intelligence, even though he is not able to make a cup of coffee?

tim333 a day ago

bifftastic 2 days ago

Any advances in theoretical physics yet? Are there any fundamental obstacles? I would have thought not, but I haven't seen anything reported.

QuesnayJr 2 days ago

The Maxwell conjecture was a conjecture in theoretical physics (though not a particularly important one)

ls612 2 days ago

The fundamental obstacle is that we have no conceivable way to produce the energy levels to test the predictions that new theoretical physics would produce. We are like over a dozen orders of magnitude off.

tim333 a day ago

There's a lot of everyday stuff in physics which is unexplained like the particle masses we have.

Windchaser 3 hours ago

s_Hogg 3 days ago

I don't know why, but when I saw the source of this particular headline it reminded me of the album title 26 Mixes for Cash

defrost 3 days ago

Ambient 0: Math for Airports

melagonster 2 days ago

Wow, so this is the end of science :(

xyzsparetimexyz 2 days ago

It's just another tool that can help solve problems. It doesn't know _what_ problems to solve. It turns out that a lot of old problems are now low hanging fruit for these new models. In terms of 'expanding the frontier', we've just discovered dynamite and can now blast our way through mountains. The bottom of the ocean or space are still as hard to reach as ever.

silver_sun 2 days ago

It's not even predictable like dynamite. Sometimes it can blast through a mountain, impressively, the problem is you can't predict which mountain it works on. And other times it can't even make a dent in a molehill, which is perplexing given what it was capable of earlier. Can we even call it dynamite?

woeirua 2 days ago

No bud, it’s just the beginning!

scuppernong 2 days ago

the people who crow in the comments of each of these posts about AI advances making human beings useless seem to bizarrely identify themselves with the AI, but none of them seem to have had any hand in building this technology. at best, they're power users. pure ressentiment.

bryan0 2 hours ago

I think there's another interesting story here about how this was apparently moderately flagged and triggered the flame-war detector which kept the story off the front page of HN 2 days ago[0]. I think people are having a hard time processing this information rationally(?)

What can we do to make conversations around these incredibly exciting and important topics more constructive? HN is where I expect to read expert comments on these topics, has this style of conversation moved elsewhere?

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49157930#49132926

tomhow 2 hours ago

The main issue was that it was submitted late Friday night SF time, meaning it was overnight or Saturday everywhere in the world when the post had its chance on the front page. The flagging was minimal relative to the vote count and had no effect, and the flamewar detector would have been turned off sooner if moderators saw it sooner (it wasn't really a flamewar, just a lot of comments). It still spent 10 hours on the front page.

None of this is anything out of the ordinary; this kind of thing has always happened. The only real story here is that moderators sleep sometimes.

reducesuffering 19 minutes ago

> HN is where I expect to read expert comments on these topics, has this style of conversation moved elsewhere?

For people who have been paying attention to accurate predictions leading to our present state of the world, HN has collectively been reactionary, incorrectly dismissive, and incredibly behind the curve. In public, people are better informed on LessWrong and AI Twitter circles. That's where frontier researchers are. Barely here

jrflo 2 hours ago

I think that HN is particularly negative towards AI because the vast majority of users here will have their prestigious CS careers disrupted by AI advances. So, there's an inherent negative bias towards this news.

I for one am really fascinated by AI's advances in science and math and would like to talk about it somewhere without the constant flamewars...

sothatsit 43 minutes ago

Extreme claims on posts like these also, rightfully, trigger people’s skepticism. I don’t think it’s wrong to question claims that math is dead as a field. But then it leads people to miss the overall trendline.

People argue whether we are at y-5, y, or y+5, meanwhile we seem to be on a y=2^x exponential that keeps leading to crazier and crazier results. The much more interesting question to me is what will be consumed by the exponential like math seems to be, and what won’t. Writing has been much more stubborn, but I’ve noticed Fable to be quite a big step up there as well. How about politics? Will we develop new ways to let people express their own values in democracies, or will we get much better at manipulation?

And then there’s questions like, even if AI can answer increasingly complicated math questions, will we still need mathematicians to translate results to the real world, verify them, or decide where to push the frontier?

casey2 2 days ago

People weren't their strongest even when most did manual labor. Now that humans are free from mental labor we work on creating and optimizing the best exercises for each mind. Couple that with restructuring transport infrastructure and diets many people will be smarter and fitter than at any time in history. They won't be able to outrun an automobile or out think an autointelligence.

bwestergard 42 minutes ago

"People weren't their strongest even when most did manual labor."

Is there good historical data on some measure of strength across representative populations over time in the modern era? I'm doubtful.

We do know that the introduction of agriculture diminished strength:

"Bone mass was around 20% higher in the foragers - the equivalent to what an average person would lose after three months of weightlessness in space.

After ruling out diet differences and changes in body size as possible causes, researchers have concluded that reductions in physical activity are the root cause of degradation in human bone strength across millennia."

cam.ac.uk/research/news/hunter-gatherer-past-shows-our-fragile-bones-result-from-physical-inactivity-since-invention-of

robinhouston 2 days ago

In a way the most remarkable thing about this is that it isn't even at the top of the HN homepage. Even if this is a step up from what we've seen before, we're no longer astonished by the idea that AI can make significant advances in mathematics and computer science.

antirez 2 days ago

This is not at the top as it is actively flagged by people that can't psychologically cope with the advances of AI. Hacker News is no longer a web site of an elite.

tomhow 4 hours ago

It wasn't heavily flagged. It was pulled down by the flamewar detector due to the large number of comments, and it slid under the radar due to only hitting the front page during overnight hours on Friday night/Saturday morning. It still spent 10 hours on the front page, but all during off peak hours. I've now created a new copy of the post so it can have prime time exposure.

Culonavirus 6 minutes ago

> Hacker News is no longer a web site of an elite.

...

> antirez

This dude is unironically talking about elites, lmao you're nothing but a slightly successful nerd, not much more, not much less. One of thousands. Tens of thousands. Your musings on Bsky are viewed by like two people (one of them is probably your mother and the other your wife/girlfriend) and no one else cares.

It is hard for me to put into words the amount of extreme hatred I hold against people calling themselves "the elite". Have some some humility you POS. (And yes I know who this is.)

Chance-Device 2 days ago

> people that can't psychologically cope with the advances of AI

Yes. And there are many of them. I wonder what would help them come to terms with it. Seriously, people are going to be grieving over this. Loss of identity, loss of social standing, ideas of entire future lives that will now never happen. The greatest crime people may hold AI guilty of is taking away their dreams.

lacy_tinpot 2 hours ago

matteoraso 2 days ago

tuesdaynight 2 days ago

I like your comments and agree with a lot of your points, including parts of this one. That said, please don't go to this route. A lot of the doomerism comes from financial insecurity fears. Try to remember that a lot of people are subconsciously afraid of losing their homes. I know that it is pretty hard to ignore them, but try to engage with people that do not dismiss 100% of AI accomplishments.

rwz a day ago

bencarmin 2 days ago

This comment is about the tier of a Reddit atheist going to a funeral and telling a grieving family that "haha grandma is dead and there is no heaven".

lkey 2 days ago

Forums change with the times, and this one never existed solely to burnish your ego.

Moreover, mister elite, you don't know why this press release was flagged.

I'm not sure why we should privilege your bitter speculation over more mundane possibilities.

fg137 2 days ago

Didn't know I was part of an elite.

w4yai a day ago

antonvs 2 days ago

> Hacker News is no longer a web site of an elite.

It was always mainly a website for employees of an elite.

matt_daemon 2 days ago

It’s never been clear to me why the HN algorithm isn’t public. It’s obviously nowhere near as complex as something like Twitter, and of course isn’t a trade secret. The fact it’s private only furthers speculation like this.

BigTTYGothGF 2 days ago

> Hacker News is no longer a web site of an elite.

Never was.

dwb 2 days ago

So condescending. “Can’t psychologically cope”? Can you hear yourself? There’s some advances, but we’re losing a lot too. Don’t get dazzled by the hype.

pistoriusp 2 days ago

Interesting. I had no idea that a person could see what is flagged?

defrost 2 days ago

ofjcihen 2 days ago

Or maybe, just maybe, other people have different opinions than you?

Is that possible or is everyone else too common to have those?

bwfan123 2 days ago

> Hacker News is no longer a web site of an elite

hah, sorry, we are plebs out here.

over_bridge 4 hours ago

ltitu 2 days ago

We cannot psychologically stand that Redis is hyped by OpenAI:

https://developers.openai.com/cookbook/examples/vector_datab...

How are the sales going?

halJordan 2 days ago

saithound 2 days ago

I don't think that's it. Multiple or my friends from the target audience (academic mathematicians) admitted to scrolling past because the title made it sound like a review of last month's contributions, instead of 10 new ones.

gbnwl 2 days ago

There are articles with far fewer upvotes and comments ranking higher on the front page right now, despite being the same age or older than this one. HNs opaque ranking system at it again.

curt15 2 days ago

What about AI research itself? Is OpenAI close to automating its human staff out of a job?

zild3d 11 hours ago

> What about AI research itself? Is OpenAI close to automating its human staff out of a job?

It's more like they've already automated the parts of the jobs that the humans most closely thought of as the "their job"

ianm218 2 days ago

They and Anthropic have indicated that the models are substantially augmenting the research and doing large amounts of work autonomously at this point. Here is one of the many blog posts on it [1]. Many people would dismiss this as "marketing" so take it for what you will.

My guess from following this stuff quite closely is that these companies are still a couple years away from fully autonomous research staff.

[1]. https://www.anthropic.com/institute/recursive-self-improveme...

yewenjie 2 days ago

Yes, but they wouldn't publish that bit lest other companies steal the ideas.

gizmodo59 2 days ago

It’s also very very divided (x companies, oss vs not and other interests)

schleck8 2 days ago

This is one of the most impactful mathematical publications in history by all accounts

I think we've now hit a point where 99.9% of the population gloss over these types of AI advancements because of human competence being insufficient

No human could have published this because it requires paradigm shifts (e. g. Section 5) in multiple mathematical domains. Mastering one of them to this degree is rare, mastering 3+ pretty much non existent for humans.

jofzar 2 days ago

Honestly just a bit burnt out on posts like this

jsnell 4 hours ago

Original submission (460 votes) two days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49132058

For some reason comments got moved to this one.

tomhow 3 hours ago

Its visibility was diminished due to the flamewar detector and most of its front page time being during overnight hours on Friday night/Saturday morning USA time. I've created a new copy to give it some primetime exposure, because it seems like an important enough announcement to warrant it.

drcongo 4 hours ago

This thread has an absolutely wild points to comments ratio.

big_toast 3 hours ago

tomhow explains they gave the story another shot here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49158443

Kelteseth 4 hours ago

What's up with the upvote/comments ratio 8 to 337 on this post? Are the comments already also ai advanced? (/s?)

sashank_1509 2 days ago

[flagged]

matteoraso 2 days ago

It's simple economics. Building a robot to do your chores is expensive and only a small minority of people value their time enough to buy one. Meanwhile, SWEs are expensive and GPUs are (comparatively) cheap.

unknownian 2 days ago

You shouldn't be getting downvoted for something that a majority of pure math and art enthusiasts believe to be true. The truth is many of these entrepreneurs and VCs are obsessed with AI not for money or human progress, but because it makes them feel closer to being a "god" rather than a mere mortal. Much of it (especially AI art) is out of spite for human creativity, which is done by mortals with limitations.

eadwu 2 days ago

Taking the stance of moral superiority is kind of funny. And pure math and art enthusiasts don't think they are closer to being a "god" from understanding/"discovering" math?

Stop coping and deluding yourself mate.

To begin with, whether AI is the one doing the discovering or not makes no difference. Any "pure math" person would aim to understand regardless - and would be quite glad that they have a longer paved path.

Any mathematician in academic or industry is more than likely not a "pure math" person (tainted by capitalism).

AlexeyBelov 15 hours ago

unknownian 2 days ago

xyzsparetimexyz 2 days ago

Any implication of any of these findings? They seem like unimportant nerd snipes to me. If you want to do something actually relevant, get chatgpt to write a simulation of graphene nanotube construction and figure out how to do it at scale.

utopiah 2 days ago

Very marketable nerd snipes indeed.

foobar10000 2 days ago

One - and I do not mean to be snarky - you can literally ask Gpt 5.6 Sol this - and if you want to see cool stuff - Fable running in their app (not website) has a view thinking button that is actually a good way to explore the adjacent fields, etc.

The non-sofic group one is definitely a big deal - would have been a Fields medal if discovered by a human.

zkmon 3 days ago

> claiming human authorship for a proof generated entirely by an AI system would misrepresent both the system’s contribution and the nature of genuine human intellectual work.

AI has no self-awareness. It's a tool. When you assemble a furniture using a screw driver, the torque force interacts with the molecular forces inside the metal and miraculously it transfers the force to the screw though a clever geometry design, communicating the force to the screw to turn it in a certain way.

Do you attribute the build to the tool? The "system's contribution" is helped by many other things all the way down to chips, datacenters and power generation. If the authorship requires attributing to a tool, then it should happen all the way down.

raincole 3 days ago

Sorry, OpenAI's take is correct here. If you're not convinced, here is how they prompted LLM: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/04d1d1e4-bc75-476a-97cf-49055cd98... [0]

A slightly smarter highschooler could write these. I could write these. It's clear as day that the LLM, not the human, did the heavy lift. It'd be ridiculous to give full credit to whoever wrote the prompt.

[0]: Not one of the proofs in the linked article, but from OpenAI too.

ben_w 2 days ago

> A slightly smarter highschooler could write these. I could write these. It's clear as day that the LLM, not the human, did the heavy lift. It'd be ridiculous to give full credit to whoever wrote the prompt.

I think you're over-estimating what a smarter highschooler could write.

A "finite loopless undirected multigraph" could have been explained to me at that age if we'd taken Discrete rather than Mechanics and Pure (and one module of Stats) in my two A-levels* in maths and further maths; but from what I saw of the Discrete module, neither:

  Every finite loopless multigraph with no bridge possesses a cycle double cover, without additional assumptions such as cubicity, planarity, connectivity, or higher edge-connectivity.
nor:

  repeated-edge closed trails masquerading as cycles
would have been something we'd have learned. But more importantly, we absolutely didn't have a feel for how much effort one needs to put into making sure the proof is right, so if one of us had been hypothetically asked to write a prompt it would've been no more than half that length, and missed most of the bullet points.

* For those not from the UK: A-levels are between secondary school and university, when aged 16-18. Functionally they are university entrance qualifications: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-level_(United_Kingdom)

yaqubroli 3 days ago

The human provides the intention and the ability to appreciate the output. Tools do “heavy lifting” all the time, but we still primarily credit the humans who use them precisely because they made the choice to use them.

Provability is just going the way of computation. John Napier had to manually compute logarithm tables over decades and was recognised for his work; now that same work could be performed by a 10 year old with a calculator in an evening.

esikich 2 days ago

oklahomasports 2 days ago

ipnon 2 days ago

But why can’t we prompt the LLM “just do math research”? This is what I don’t understand.

raincole 2 days ago

ascots 2 days ago

mathisfun123 2 days ago

I don't disagree with you but there's no need for exaggeration; ain't no high school student writing this:

> In particular, proofs for special graph classes, constructions of cycle covers with some edges covered other than twice, bounded-length or prescribed-cycle variants, reductions to another unproved conjecture, computational verification through any fixed graph size, and candidate counterexamples without a complete nonexistence certificate are insufficient.

which is infact a very important part of the prompt.

don_esteban 2 days ago

zkmon 2 days ago

When you use a crane to do the "heavy lifting" for construction work, do you give full credit to the cranes?

raincole 2 days ago

esikich 3 days ago

Your brain also is physical. Electrochemical gradients flow between physical molecular constructs. Isn't it just chemistry? Do you attribute it to physics or some whole-is-greater-than-the-parts idea?

ben_w 3 days ago

> Do you attribute the build to the tool? The "system's contribution" is helped by many other things all the way down to chips, datacenters and power generation. If the authorship requires attributing to a tool, then it should happen all the way down.

When the tool is a 3D printer, or any CNC system really, you bet I attribute a build to it.

I could also attribute the operator; there is no contradiction, it's a free choice, just like saying "I am in Berlin" does not contradict "I am in Germany".

naasking 3 days ago

> AI has no self-awareness

What is your mechanistic model of self awareness that yields this conclusion?

> It's a tool

Does your model suggest that tools can't have self awareness?

perching_aix 3 days ago

Dunno about the parent commenter, but I personally interpret the concept as having a hidden representation of self that is continually tended to, and influences future choices. This implies statefulness, which models are intentionally not at inference time (*).

(*) Even if we hack around this and just do the usual trick of simply laundering statefulness to a higher level, in this case the context window being fed in, I fail to identify (**) a representation of its own state in these bodies of text that it'd be meticulously maintaining. I further fail to identify how it could be hidden or maintained, considering I control like half of it. The best you could ascribe it is a meticulous maintenance of a persona the user is talking to, but then that doesn't necessarily represent the model's internal state, the same way my own words here aren't doing so either. Difference being, I actually have one (I'm "on-line").

You'll sometimes catch models mixing up who's who and how many who-s there even are for example.

(**) I did wish for something hidden though, so maybe it's just concealed? The same way people can encode a lot more of their emotional and mental state than normal into text if they read and write a lot of it, I'm aware of research that suggested the same for LLMs, albeit I cannot cite it. Maybe those phrasing signatures are just alien to me and will never pop out. Either way, I'd expect researchers to stumble upon this during interpretability studies, and either they haven't, they have but it wasn't popsci adopted, or they're keeping awfully tight lipped about it. If you know of anything like this, your turn now, would be happy to learn.

I do wonder how reasonable it is to expect e.g. a single maintained identity though. Maybe it isn't?

(*) Another way to hack around this of course is to just precompute some internal "self-awareness states" and hop around between them. Probably the closest to what the models are actually "doing".

ben_w 2 days ago

naasking 2 days ago

Delk 2 days ago

I honestly don't think a language model is enough for self-awareness, regardless of the exact model of awareness.

A language model (or an image model or whatever) cannot even be sentient, and I think sentience is a prerequisite for awareness.

Even if we express a lot of our subjective experience with words, the language is just a symbolic representation of those experiences. The qualia themselves, even those that are quite abstract, are rooted in our physical presence and evolution.

You can't have an understanding of what hunger or physical pain feel like if you have no need for food or a sensory capacity for feeling pain. You can't understand what loneliness or pride at an achievement mean if you don't have a neural network wired to value social connection or status. We value connection because we're social animals that have needed each other for survival.

Even the more abstract of our subjective experiences are in some way rooted in our physical evolution.

I see no reason to believe that a neural network built entirely based on the symbolic level of language could have the features needed for the subjective experience itself.

AI awareness might actually be more believable if that awareness manifested itself in an entirely different way than in humans. But if we assume awareness because outputs resemble what we consider meaningful as humans, yet the neural network has had no inputs or evolution that could form the actual basis of human-like experience, I think we're seeing something that isn't actually there.

naasking 2 days ago

woeirua 2 days ago

NitpickLawyer 3 days ago

A better analogy would be a manufactured object, say 3d printed for simplicity. The 3d printer is given an input, and an object manifests itself after some time. We say that the creator of the object is the person turning on the machine, sending the data, and collecting the object. Not the machine itself.

cure_42 3 days ago

I'd say the creator is the one who created the 3d model, not the one who pushed the print button.

dgellow 2 days ago

NitpickLawyer 3 days ago

sf12sd 4 hours ago

Not peer reviewed, Lean proofs are 100,000 lines long and Lean has bugs:

https://cr.yp.to/proofs.html

Who is going to wade through this?

kypro 4 hours ago

They've been hiring mathematicians to verify this stuff themselves. They're obviously not just throwing it out there without any human review.

12asg 4 hours ago

And these mathematicians sink the comment to the bottom in 5 min?

It is not peer review if it is all in one company that wants an IPO.

maxprimes 3 hours ago

I'm sure OpenAI is just interested in the greater good of mankind!

titanix88 an hour ago

How do we know that these solutions don't exist in the training data? It is open secret that they have used pirated materials for training. Perhaps it plagiarized solutions from works of some obscure Belgian mathematician from the sixties, who did not get mainstream acceptance. I wouldn't be surprised if they also got access to mathematics done in the "defense contractor" setting from various three letter agencies.

Without a searchable index of training data, it is hard to put faith into these claims.

ken47 an hour ago

This wouldn't be a problem so long as they properly attribute.