Government sponsored study on alcohol doesn't stand up to scrutiny (nntaleb.substack.com)
38 points by scoofy 5 hours ago
nialse 2 hours ago
Even the best people seem to go out of their way to rationalise (their own?) alcohol consumption. As a nowadays leading cause of cancer in many regions, and associated with dependency and other secondary negative outcomes, perhaps it is time to stop rationalising it?
And maybe also let off the rhetoric of "government sponsored" science, which is actually most science in many places. Written for views/clicks obviously. So tiering.
// Master of Science in Public Health
graemep 17 minutes ago
People from puritanical cultures rationalise their opposition to other people consuming alcohol.
Ad hominem arguments cut both ways.
free652 20 minutes ago
>And maybe also let off the rhetoric of "government sponsored" science, which is actually most science in many places.
Is it? Government science is usually very closely tied to politics, and that's so far from "science". I didn't see any real science in your post as well btw.
laserlight an hour ago
The following quote is especially problematic IMHO:
> For a paper claiming to overturn decades of alcohol drinking recommendations, the statistical foundation is underdocumented and, to be mild, statistically strange.
Given that "decades of alcohol drinking recommendations" lacked any statistical basis to begin with, the scientific-rigor bar to clear is quite low IMHO.
nialse 18 minutes ago
It's just writing for dramatic effect it seems. The claim that the paper is 'used as “definitive” argument in the medical discussions' seems quite absurd given that the paper itself was published just two months ago.
jvican 32 minutes ago
I think nobody would argue drinking a lot of alcohol, or substantial alcohol, is detrimental for health.
The question being argued is whether drinking a small amount of alcohol is detrimental to your health. This is a different matter altogether.
We, humans, have been drinking alcohol for millenia. I'm skeptical to the idea that a small amount, say, a glass of wine for lunch every day or so, can harm us, especially for active individuals. There has been a natural selection process for us to adapt.
I believe what Taleb is doing here is of great public value, and I commend him for that.
epolanski 29 minutes ago
There is no evidence either small quantities of tobacco or most drugs harm you either.
People that want to drink will find excuses to do so.
jvican 26 minutes ago
graemep 14 minutes ago
flowerthoughts 2 hours ago
If there's no explanation of why the 70+ bucket has so much larger CI band, having that dominate the totals seems like very fair critique. At the very least, they should have presented another totals with the outlier removed to show the impact.
newsomix9xl 4 hours ago
I am inclined to take Nassim's position as true, since it agrees with my desired beliefs: that moderate drinking is quite harmless, or if there are harms, they are outweighed by the benefits.
Modern medicine often gives us access to amazing drugs which have, in small print, a long list of associated, known, proven harms to our organs and health. The logic, as I understand it, is that the benefits of the drugs outweigh the harms.
The logic is not "that these drugs are harmless and possess only benefits".
zmgsabst 4 hours ago
This is important when discussing (eg) cancer treatments: a treatment may leave you alive for longer but in worse health — and therefore, it’s unclear which is preferable.
rapidaneurism 3 hours ago
Arguably when left alive your health is by definition better than the alternative.
I suspect you mean the good health for a few months before death compared with a worse health during and after treatment. Still I had to make the quip.
nkrisc an hour ago
burnt-resistor an hour ago
zmgsabst an hour ago
OutOfHere 2 hours ago
Alcohol is a carcinogen, famous for causing various upper gastrointestinal cancers. It also isn't great for brain cells. Why are these reasons not enough to quit it?
If you want something to drink in the evenings, how about a cup of mild bancha green tea andor rooibos tea andor hibiscus tea? If you do, please get the loose leaf product only, never the bagged product, as the latter infuses microplastics.
arpinum 40 minutes ago
Dose makes the poison. And some substances are beneficial at low doses and harmful at high doses.
Do you foreswear aspirin?
jvican 30 minutes ago
Agreed - it's all in the dose and the response. Not even mentioning the selection pressure for us to adapt to at least small amounts of alcohol in our diet, which has been present in basic things such as fermented fruits that we had to eat in our ancestral environment.
readthenotes1 24 minutes ago
In small doses, alcohol may have other benefits that outweigh the risk of gastrointestinal cancer.
Whether it's as strong as the now Resveratrol scam or not is a matter to study honestly, though that quality seems beyond the reach of many humans motivated to prioritize something else.