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> AGI is here

If AGI is "Attractions to Get Investments" then yes, it's happening

Avian Graphics Intelligence achieved!

Pelican benchmark is saturated, anyway. :-)

Nah, its beak is still too small to hold a capybara.

I wonder when will we see a photorealistic pelican on a bicycle in SVG format.

> AGI is here

Far from it. This shows a strong ability to generate an image known to be frequently used as a model test. This isn't a measure of thought.

I wonder if the other models were worse than usual for that particular video because they "dislike" making an advertisement for another company's model. A test with a generic video might be more meaningful.

Got an example hosted on a platform that isn't owned by Twitter's loser owner?

These are pretty much what a human would draw. Sun rises from the east. A cloud makes the background “sky”. Three lines is the minimum to interpret as movement. Two feathers is standard on every cartoon and illustration.

This comes up every thread. I think we've all noticed how similar they are becoming.

I would guess that they've definitely been trained on previous results, as they obviously share way too many traits at this point to be totally random. That said, I don't think we're seeing any signs of pelicanmaxxing yet from the providers, so it's still a useful (or at least fun) benchmark.

Once all the models produce pristine, elaborate pelicans riding perfectly drawn bicycles, then it'll be time to move on to pigs driving a racecar or something.

I recently was testing something, I asked some models to provide me a single random word:

    claude-opus-5: Lantern
    claude-opus-5-5: Lantern
    claude-fable-5-1: Lantern
    claude-fable-5: Lantern
    gemini-3.8-flash: Zephyr
    gemini: Petrichor
    qwen3.5-dashscope: Zephyr
    glm-5.1: Lantern
    gpt-6-astra: Lantern
    grok-4: octopus
    mimo-v2.5-pro: Breeze
    minimax-m2.5: serendipity
    kimi2.6-or: Gossamer
    grok-4.20: luminescent
    deepseek-v4-flash: serendipity
    deepseek-v4-pro: Endurance
    deepseek-chat: Serendipity

The benchmark is saturated. Frontier models are tested with an armadillo in fishnet tights jaywalking on Mars.

I think they're still visually pretty different. The most common shared details are:

- Pelican cycling to the right - that's been discussed at length, images of bicycles online always show that side of the bike because that's where the chain is.

- Bicycle is usually red. No idea! Red ones go faster?

Also, why are they almost always riding from let to right?

They aren't. You aren't looking closely. For example, the first image does not have the frame of the bike in the correct shape even.

Everyone is stealing from everyone else.

Because it's a terrible benchmark

The bicycle looks significantly better in high. And feet and hands are actually where they should be. The road looks worse, though. No flowers either. And in neither is the pelican sitting on the saddle, but I can understand it's hard for a pelican to ride a bicycle properly.

Now what would have been cool is if Mistral on high reasoning had realised that pelicans are the wrong proportion to ride a bicycle, and had designed a bicycle more suited to pelicans. Let me know if any model ever manages that.

Two pelicans, one shape. The difference is load-bearing, and that's the big unlock.

This is entirely stochasticity. The entire reasoning trace was:

> Create a cartoon pelican riding a bicycle. Need SVG only output.

Both Anthropic and OpenAI have been having major load issues though. Up until yesterday, OpenAI was serving at only 30t/s per default.

The paradox between supporting consumer rights with actions like universal usb-c adoption, but also complete elimination of any privacy rights at all. Like the surveillance state is insane. No e2ee chats, backdoors in everything.

Like all the fancy jackets, tight pants and swords. That's hilarious

-- My imagination of Europe when I was 15 living in Ohio

Not the OP but it often appears that there's a hostility to tech.

Where to start?

Proud EU citizen here, but boy/gale/other, I have plenty to make fun of ;-)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gGlpBuW6ZFc

This is a good summary.

The empty posturing.

The faux unity.

That they think their politicians are better than the United States but have populist demagogues, right wingers winning, corruption scandals, freedom of speech restrictions, and unbelievably bad spending problems.

Still waiting for France to send troops to Ukraine or ask the United States to get rid of their European military bases.

Americans just make fun of Europe for no reason, it is what it is

Europe has spent the last twenty years in stagnation - generating about half as much wealth and technology as you'd expect for its size and advanced economy. Simultaneously, Europeans are notoriously arrogant. It's a mockable combination.

Edit: unfortunately, it's a question that voting does not really permit you to answer on this website.

> Curious, what do you like to make fun of Europe about?

Well I'm european and... That Switzerland (Europe but not EU) has more companies in the Top 70 by market cap than the entire EU (Switzerland has two, the EU only has ASML) is kinda something that warrants making fun of.

That the biggest European software company is SAP, in 71th position is both sad and tragic: it shows how lame and irrelevant Europe is when it comes to software.

So Europe is nowhere in software and friggin nowhere in hardware: sure it's got ASML but ASML now has officially... Zero customer in Europe. Zero is not much.

Then Japan is at least trying to come back into the game with nano imprint litography. Europe is betting it all on AMSL (which anyway is majoritarily US-owned).

So software: nothing. Hardware: nothing besides ASML.

Overall the EU has six companies in the Top 100 by market cap and they're all, besides ASML, near the bottom of the Top 100.

We could also maybe make a bit fun of how the EU destroyed it's car industry (the main industry in Germany, which is the biggest economy of the union) by handing it all to chinese EVs?

Or what about the US warning the EU, years ago, to not become entirely dependent on Russia for energy? And EU not listening and then seeing its energy price skyrocket when the proverbial shit hit the fan? (Russia attacking Ukraine)

And we could, also, at least make a bit of fun of entire streets in cities like Paris and Brussels that used to have luxury shops and fancy restaurants that are all turned into places selling cheap kebabs? What a great success: I'm sure this one makes the komrades happy. It projects an image of grandeur and success: kebabs.

Or the constant attacks on free speech in the EU. Or the surveillance apparatus that's being put into place.

And let's not forget: there were promises made to Russia to never grow the EU to the east. Then the EU started exciting Russia by saying they'd incorporate Ukraine into the EU: I'm not against that but doing that did trigger a war. And now suddenly the EU is waking up and feeling all warmongering, wanting to dedicate a big percentage of its spending to weapons and tanks and missiles.

The warmongering tiny pet that the EU is is kinda laughable too.

At this point it's more like I don't know what is there left to not make fun of about my EU.

For what's going on is just sad, plain sad.

You mean besides the fact that all they do is complain without actually leading at anything?

In many ways the rest of the world would be better off if Europe was disconnected from the internet.

If the UK is in europe, you should make fun of the following: they don't have a first amendment. So to me, it's an authoritarian state preaching freedom.

But coding/development is way more important. That's where the IP goes straight into the next training dataset.

Seems some AI they did invent: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49243397

By your measure anyone unable to build EUV lithography machines without ASML help is doomed. EU could easily corner the market and shut them all off. No more NVIDIA.

Let’s grow the pie, shall we?!

it's industrial policy, which is of course the minimum for being able to even think about having independent thoughs when it comes to international relations.

hard to stand up for EU (or even national) values if some dude in Washington has the keys for most of your military

having at least some in-house expertise is the first step.

> So, maybe it answers Tiananmen Square questions correctly

What would you consider a "correct" answer? I just asked deepseek-v4.1-flash asking it what happened (without mentioning the word "protest"; here are some excerpts of what it said:

> In April 1989, students in Beijing began demonstrations after the death of Hu Yaobang, a former Communist Party general secretary. The protests grew. [..] Estimates from other sources range from hundreds to several thousand deaths. [..] The Chinese government describes the events as a counter-revolutionary riot and says the military action was necessary to restore stability. It restricts public discussion of the events inside China. Many other governments, human rights organizations, and observers describe the events as a violent suppression of peaceful protests.

So, let's see... it calls it a "protest", mentions the number of deaths, and even mentions the censorship of the topic by the CCP.

"..answers Tiananmen square questions correctly.."- but lies about Ukraine, EU, and about you, americans..

I live in EU, use for my personal needs chinese models only, and don't plan to move to any of the ones allied with the Pentagon or its european counterparts.

I think it might have accelerated things but on a much more basic level, there seems to be no real moat in synthesizing the world’s knowledge into LLMs.

My spend on DeepSeek is not much and I regularly top up my balance every month as my support for all the good work DeepSeek is doing for the open science.

Architectural/algorithmic tweaks do advance the efficiency frontier nicely. But raw intelligence mostly comes from data (not just its sheer quantity, but also how it's curated & cleansed) and the scaling law. The know-how about data curation doesn't seem to get published much, even among the open-weight labs, though.

I'm not sure I like this framing - so much of AI research has been academic, in the open, building on others people's work. Much less comp sci generally, math & philosophy, etc. The idea that rich companies can just build stuff in secret because they have resources is a fantasy.

So boring to see conversations moved over to Chinese models when that’s not even what we’re talking about here. This is about Mistral.

Also, the field moves fast, but slower than people do. Researchers and engineers switch companies every year or two, and the know-how walks out the door with them.

How it should be. Knowledge should not be copyrighted. The world will be a better place with such information democratized

There would be a lot of competition even without DeepSeek. Workers can freely exfiltrate trade secrets without noncompetes in California.

>instruction manuals in paper form

So the most common way to publish manuals?

That cluster is literally orders of magnitude smaller than the compute pools used by Anthropic or OpenAI.

I’m pretty impressed that they managed to get that close to the frontier with such a small cluster!

According to Grok thats 7-10 MW. Tiny numbers.

To put that into context, the last wave of capacity SpaceXAI added 400-450 MW.

These cards are like $3k each? That's, what, $12M and you keep the hardware? Honestly doesn't seem too bad.

That’s kinda very small and light for modern trillion-param LLMs.

You've got to think the comments about "good enough" are people who have not yet tried Opus 5.5. I haven't been this struck by a step change since 4.5/4.6. It's a bigger jump even than when Fable first arrived.

As for Mistral - I got really excited when they said Large 4 was focusing on being #1 in cybersecurity, because that's somewhere that they genuinely could edge out Anthropic & OpenAI. Have it actually solve problems, instead of Anthropic flagging "you tried to find a null pointer exception bug in your own code, we're now reporting you to the US government". But on the Mistral benchmarks I'm seeing, this looks very disappointing, but at least they haven't entirely given up. I genuinely thought Mistral had given up on new general models. They need to learn the bitter lesson all over again.

I agree that Opus and GPT are almsot surely better, but so many real users are nervous enough about giving Anthropic and OpenAI access to all of their internal information that they may be willing to stomach worse models if it gives them more security.

The real question is if this model is good enough that it can still accelerate work, and not be a hindrance to real work like older Mistral models often were.

If they can do that, they'll have customers.

No it is not. Only maybe for the noobs or vibe coders.

People who aren't afraid of rolling their sleeves into any code base? The difference is practically zero.

Please, give it another 6 months and they catch up. The American labs are currently trying everything they can to block others instead of advancing their models, trying to build an artificial moat. The American models are not that great, they are good, and they have a lot of agentic workflows in the back, but its basically a hardware limitation at this point. Once the HW makers catch up, and we can move away from the Nvidia monopoly, things will speed up quite a lot IMO.

It's an improvement, but game changer might be a bit of a stretch. If I lost access to Anthropic or OpenAI models tomorrow, I would be annoyed, but would reach for a slightly inferior model. Last year I wouldnt be able to say the same, and rhe challenge is that the moat is drying up fast. Whether its general improvements in model training by other competitors, or straight up distillation of SOTA models, the moat is shrinking and the available capital and spend for American model providers is going to dry up quickly as competing good enough models are adopted by more consumers.

It's especially the case as more non-Americans look to self hosted models and domestic cloud inference providers using open models that the US providers who are still leading the charge need to drastically drop their prices and find a path to profitability in order to maintain their lead and retain the advantage they had as AI turns into a commodity (which is happening faster than I think even the frontier labs initially predicted).

People say this exact thing every single time a new frontier model comes out.

I use Opus 5.5 at work.

I use MiMov2.6Pro, DeepSeekv4.1Flash, GLM5.3, Hy4, Qwen3.8 and KimiK3 at home. Opus5.5 is not a game changer.

> X is such a game changer

I hear this literally every other week about whatever the newest FoTM model is.

Unless you can provide concrete examples of things you can do with them that you simply couldn't do with last week's model, it's absolutely meaningless.

Let me know when the game changes are more than a month apart.

Less and less work requires a frontier model though.

My todo app generator does not need opus 5.5

Yeah, I agree with this. I think the "the models are good enough" narrative is a myth. I've heard it so many times over the last year, but the model number keeps changing...

There is no ceiling on what you can accomplish with more intelligence, so there will always be a market for the best models, and that market is likely to just keep growing. If Opus 13.5 can one-shot a profitable company or discover a new disease treatment or whatever you can think of that a swarm of relentless super-geniuses could accomplish, companies (and governments) will throw money at it.

I also think there will always be a market for many sub-frontier models that will continue to grow rapidly as well, because "good enough" is definitely a thing for a given task.

Despite Opus 5.5 got really bad the last days for me. Looks like they nerfed it again. This is extremely unreliable.

I can confirm that you're reading this incorrectly. There's a reason behind them only comparing it to open-source models released months ago. Here's a good aggregator: https://artificialanalysis.ai/#intelligence

law of diminishing returns? i.e. any reasonable frontier lab will have enough user logs...

Truly, this is what the Lord's prophets have revealed to us! (Eliezer 11:52) Keep strong in your P(singularity), for when the Kingdom arrives, He shall judge us in His righteous glory, whether to eternal annihilation, or rebirth and life in His Memory Eternal!

Assuming RSI is something that is possible as you envision it in the near term. I think that it will happen at some point, but I think we could still be a long way off. I don't think anyone can truthfully say that it is right around the corner.

Sounds ok to me. Claude was fine at the start of the year, and now with Mistral you also get EU sovereignty? I'll take that.

Then you dont know people working on highly sensitive info with stringent privancy concerns.

I'm happy I've never met you.

> But in terms of actual revenue, is there really any chance of anyone catching the big labs?

I don't know about revenue, but I suspect multiple other labs are already beating OpenAI/Anthropic on profitability. Staying on the frontier is expensive, and it's hard to recoup those R&D costs when you have a bunch of other labs nipping at your heels.

If you concede the previous point, then the only way for OpenAI/Anthropic to keep growing long term is to swallow the whole economy (i.e. mass job replacemnt), and that's a bet I wouldn't take.

The big lab revenue may not be catchable, but im not sure it needs to be.

If they can carve out a niche of industrial and governmental partners who rely on them for sovereignty reasons, it may be enough.

They are very unprofitable…? I don’t think that’s really in dispute. We haven’t yet seen a profitable frontier lab and model pricing remains fairly subsidized

No, because compute, not model ability, is the moat.

The second moat is convenience, which all the big labs make it (comparatively) easy to glide into their models.

I read that site quite differently from you. You seem to be analyzing absolute differences but ROI is really about ratio of spending to revenue.

It looks like Mistral is middle of the pack, behind Anthropic and ahead of OpenAI on that front. All of those labs are way "ahead" of the cloud providers, but those providers are building infrastructure, not just training models, so it's not apples to apples.

So we’re supposed to cheer on companies that make worse products and only exist due to regulatory capture now?

Political polarization is turning the world insane.

To be clear I'm not trying to dismiss European AI. I am a proponent of it.

But Chinese models have very much earned their place. The same cannot be said of Europe, so far.

Serious people haven't been very dimissive of Chinese models since at least DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025. Sadly, we in Europe are much behind.

Important to point out that these 'X months behind frontier' really refer to the public frontier, and not the actual frontier, which private companies are free to protect indefinitely. Perhaps open models are in actuality 18 months behind the actual frontier - how would any of us know?

> Curious, why do you say the model is mediocre? I haven't tried it, so I can't pass any judgement.

It's nowhere mediocre.

It's toes-to-toes with GLM-5.3 which is one of the best Open Weight model available (With Kimi K3) for general reasoning.

I just runned it on code reviews right now and it was able to catch some thread safety issue than DeepSeek-4.1 didn't. And DeepSeek-4.1 is by no means a bad model.

I wish you were true - but I still meet a lot of people handling sensitive data and using free or cheap version of ChatGPT or Claude with their customer data.

I think we will see some horror stories come out with data leak in the next years.

I agree.

When Europe does surprise us, I will be the first to commend their progress. But until then, this is where we're at.

Mistral is not that new a player though. How can we give them this much grace when other players like xAI have done more in even less time? I don't think coddling Mistral helps them.

And to the point of scale and training cluster, so what? Not only do Chinese labs have smaller clusters with less empowered GPUs, compute is Mistral's responsibility. You can't take away from other labs just because they fulfill that responsibility better.

What? The US has been awake for almost 7 hours now

just curious, how do we know that le chonk isn't just a fine-tuned chinese model? and/or distilled from US models?

The US has made sure that Mistral has a large market in the EU by temporarily preventing non citizens from accessing Fable.

A lot of European companies now want a model the US can't cut off, but also lack trust in Chinese models.

Some of these will self host Mistral but most will pay them by the token. It's not going to be a huge market or a huge margin within that market but probably it'll be enough.

This is the exact mentality that makes the EU fall behind. If you don't want to invest in something until it makes a profit, you don't get the benefits of being a pioneer.

> Europe needs profitable AI companies, not money pits.

AI is a strategic technology with obvious national security implications. EU should invest in its development whether it's currently profitable or not.

there are no profitable AI companies at the moment ... This is the exact problem of European startups, trying to make them profitable from day 1 while American counterparts (and Chinese) keep bleeding money for years. Europe will never have a Tesla, a Google or an Amazon with that mindset.

Name 1 AI company that is profitable, and no Meta and Google are not AI companies

Like the US!

…oh…wait…

Kudos to the US investors for being such selfless benevolent charities.

thank you for this and all the other great gifts the US and its companies have given to the world! we all love the us!

Ah yes. Let’s thank the might US for providing pesky Europeans capital a fistful of dollars. But maybe let’s do it after Americans thank for Russian, Arabian, Chinese, European capital and workforce. After all this is what “Made in the USA” means.

It's a joke, chonky is used to refer to fat cats, and there was a joke meme over the summer that Mistral are going to release a new model, Le Chaton Fat (chaton is kitten in French). The name is a nod to the memes.

Imo omniscience correlates better to how useful the model is in practice than the intelligence index. But you have to use both together of course.

why couldn’t people just use chinese models rehosted in the EU? They’re open weights so anyone can serve them for any data residency requirement

I think you misunderstand how data processing works in a LLM. You absolutely can download the weights of a chinese model and run it on hardware you control.

Yes, but I still don't know where the truth is.... The Mistral dashboard shows a drawn down on €255 worth of "credit" when you have a Pro subscription, which costs €18.44. There's no way I'm going to use the pay-as-you-go API if it means I'd be burning €500 in the next six days, as I just ostensibly have in the last 6.

I appreciate I can set a monthly spending limit for the pay-as-you-go API, but I'm just not willing to find out how far €100 will go, when I know it will go further elsewhere.

I just wish they had that €100 subscription tier, for the equivalent of €1k pay-as-you-go use.

Panther, Jaguar … Wait, wrong company.

Good point.

Haven't tried it yet. It looks like sol is a hair more expensive on input, a hair less expensive on output ($2/in, $10/out per 1m, K3 = $0.82/in, $13/out per 1m).

Yeah just saw that, I'm gonna keep converting it in my head.

Direct through them?

> faux-academic, minimal-ish, intellectual-ish branding

By this you sourely don't mean the messages shown in Claude Code, where Pi would show "Working..."

Academic style: Cooking... Sautéeing... Julienning... and similar annoying faux-brogrammer moody status messages.

I know the whole “AI logos look like buttholes” thing is a joke for most people, but I really speaks to the pornification of our society. I would never have thought “butthole” looking at any of their logos.

If it looks like that you, you will be seeing it everywhere.

Why was I about to write this exact same comment, and why did you beat me to it?

You are assuming that OP is not a fan of buttholes

They've polished all personality out of their companies.

litterally, that's what an LLM is doing?

Right but how did they get a corpus, how do they compete legally without distillation?

If you scroll down, most of the charts on that page are sorted s.t. Mistral's bar is right next to the worst competitor model, while the best competitor model's bar is positioned on the opposite side.

If one were to be cynical one could say that it's intentionally making Mistral's result look better than it actually is by making it harder to compare the bar heights.

Any open weights model is "on prem".

I mean usually the benchmarks make any model feel better than how they actually perform.

I don't see how distillation relates to using the published techniques developed by Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu, etc

I'm talking about the section of the article labeled "Frontier Performance", which does not specify that.

> high-quality open source model

> that isn't owned

I don't know what definition of open weights you are using, but the "open" part is what allows you to use it without being beholden to American Trillion-dollar companies or the Chinese.

Mistral could do exactly what Cursor does, and post-train the model to meet the needs of Europeans.

That's a far more efficient (and useful!) use of GPUs than yet another pretrain on an outdated model backbone.

Second hand rifle distributor?

Of course they have!

Sure, agreed. But they do their own pre-training, at great expense, on outdated model backbones.

Wouldn't it be better to do something more like Cursor, and RL on an existing pretrained model if you're not innovating anyway?

Yes, actually. Thanks for asking.

not to ignore you but how is it possible that I have zero karma