Hacker News

Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...

The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...

It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.

I hope it gets banned by the next administration.

this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)

https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...

Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?

edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions

So butthurt! Jimmy Kimmel's writers will come up with a hilarious epithet related to this, I just know it.

María Corina Machado has stood up against authoritarianism in Venezuela for more than a decade. I don't think awarding the prize should require that the recipient is a perfect person or holds all of the "correct" opinions according to bystanders who have no skin in the game.

The Peace Prize seems somewhat hit or miss. I'm sure we all remember when it was given to Barack Obama for his lifelong work of not being George W Bush. And of course it was given to Henry Effin' Kissinger.

Maybe this speaks to the difficulty of peace in general. One asshole warmonger can destroy thousands of lives on a whim, but ending or preventing war takes long, steady efforts by large numbers of people. It's not very amenable to an individual prize.

Many "hard science" Nobel prize recipients also turned out to be complete embarrassment of themselves... There is even a name for that. "Nobel disease".

Where does it say that the Norwegian Nobel Committee is independent from politics?

As stated on their webpage, "As far as possible, the composition of the Committee is to reflect the relative strengths of the political parties in the Storting." - https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/nobel-committee/

It is independent to the sitting Norwegian government, as members can't have current seats both in the committee and Storting, but several committee do represent the political parties in Norway.

Currently the committee is made from former Leader of the Centre Party, a foreign policy scholar and writer, former Conservative Party cabinet member that was the Minister of Education and Research, a Political scientist and Chief Executive Officer of Utøya AS, and last the former Labour Party Foreign Affairs Secretary.

I find it hard to see how the committee can be genuinely independent of politics when its members are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament.

"independent from politics" seems to have a few different meanings. One is inherently bad and another is not necessarily bad. Of course the committee is political and the entire nature of the award is political.

They have really not made the impression that they are independent of politics, all laureates taken together. But if they improve I'm all for it.

There's always FIFA to give out a prize if necessary.

The committee is selected by the Norwegian parliament, a political body.

It is not really. They claim so but the members are appointed by the Norwegian government. One of the members, Asle Toje, is very much a political appointed member by the right-wing FRP party.

This process is decided by the Alfred Nobel will.

They're so independent from politics they gave a Peace Prize to President "Drone Strikes" Obama after he was in office for merely a year.

giving the prize to Obama was not political at all.

/s

i think there are plenty of books written about the topic. Im not sure hacker news is the best place to get your answer.

It seems like both sides want it, but only one admits to wanting it.

Apropo to nothing, Jack Smith, who is teed up to try Trump for the Jan 6 insurrection, was an investigation coordinator for ICC.

Probably nothing to do with it.

I don’t know which would be funnier: either (a) Trump wins the Peace Prize for a second year in a row, or (b) they go down the designated survivor list of succession…

It would be politically untenable to condemn Saudi, so there is that element too.

If they cut up the journalist Jamal Khashoggi with a bone saw on foreign soil and get away with it, why would they change?

> Committee can’t predict the future man

Sure, but is it really that difficult to give the *Peace* prize to someone who will not commit genocide eventually? Most people in the world never commit genocide.

Do you think asking them to stop a genocide is unreasonable?

But either way, she wasn’t silent on the issue. She minimised what was happening, talked about violence on both sides and defended the military committing a genocide in The Hague. She helped block investigations into it. She is complicit.

‘In December 2019, Aung San Suu Kyi appeared in the International Court of Justice at The Hague where she defended the Burmese military against allegations of genocide against the Rohingya’.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aung_San_Suu_Kyi

Yes, that’s what sovereignty means: a sovereign state governs itself and is not governed by others. A sovereign state can agree to abide by certain rules or submit some disputes to another arbiter, but it does so consensually by treaty. The US never ratified a treaty establishing the authority of the ICC, so it has not consented to that diminution of sovereignty.

You as an individual are not sovereign, and when you come to the land over which the US is sovereign, you are subject to US law.

Warrant issuance is only done if pre-trial chamber deems the suspects would continue the crimes (they very apparently did - total blockade of Gaza in 2025 leading to starvation of around 1 million people), or tamper with investigation (killing witnesses, etc. - also happened, many journalists were killed on purpose since, organizations tracking harm were banned as "terrorists" in Israel, and that's just what's easy to see, and lots of evidence is being destroyed to this day as Israel continues blowing up and buldozing Gaza, also on purpose, and also against orders of ICJ in the case against Israel as a state, not just against Netanyahu).

And you don't know much about the ICC process and could not have observed it if you think warrant is step 1. It's like step 7. If you did not watch the process, you can still learn the ICC procedure from the rules of the court. It's all freely available on their website.

Yikes, never looked at it that way. I always think of the people making things better, or that move the needle more worldwide but you are very right, the Nobel Prize is going to be awarded to someone who has been in war zones where there are tough decisions to be made

In general