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> the number of people willing to purchase a black market painting worth ~$millions is probably like a dozen

You only need one.

With something like this I imagine you could hold on to it for years or even a lifetime waiting for the right connection to come along. Maybe some of them are even commissioned or pre-sold.

I can’t say I know anyone with stolen art, but over my lifetime I’ve known people across a range of wealth classes who got a thrill out of acquiring and owning something that was risky contraband.

The numbers are higher than you'd expect. The trade in illegal (and so high rarity and limited access) goods is ongoing and flourishing via the use of third party intermediaries like free port systems [1] as well as networks of morally grey curatorial and preservation staff. Several notable archaeological "missing links" of the past few years came from said staff mediating access to private collections of undescribed provenance.

[1] https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2015/07/01/experts-identify-...

For a while members of the mafia we’re stealing them to trade against their sentence if they got caught for some other crime.

A month or two I listened to a podcast about stolen art. To summarize:

1: The stolen art sits around for a LONG TIME.

2: The provenance (papers) is forged

3: The buyer usually doesn't look too closely. They're either willing to fool themselves, gullible, or otherwise should know better.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-case-of-the-4-million-g...

From the documentaries I've watched it's usually the other way around. There's either already a known buyer, or the thief has someone in their circles that already knows how to sell it. So there's a middleman between already trusted entities.

And then if you offer to sell it to someone, they could blackmail you unless you give it to them for free or cheaper.

I would've thought thats what crypto was meant for.

Unless you’re keeping it for yourself…

> the number of people willing to purchase a black market painting worth ~$millions is probably like a dozen

Right, but what about your local brick dealer who has 10-50K to waste on whatever? Definitely way more common and easier than you think to unload these sort of things, once you go down in price a lot because of the circumstances.

There is specific Italian law about return of art. This would normally apply to people who stole the art but a careful lawyer could use this law to negotiate a reduced punishment for organized crime charges. If the art theft is described as a part of a larger criminal enterprise, then the return of that art could trigger a 2/3 reduction in punishment. See below (translated by google).

https://documenti.camera.it/leg18/dossier/testi/gi0031b.htm

"is committed by the person who has collaborated in identifying the co-conspirators or has ensured evidence of the crime or has effectively worked to prevent the criminal activity from being carried to further consequences or has recovered or had recovered the cultural property subject to the crime (penalty reduced from one third to two thirds)."

There are some “criminals” and criminal gangs and such, but I think the increase we have seen is due to Russia, Iran, and others who are giving extra resources and intelligence to some of these groups to deprive western institutions of their cultural heritage as part of the “hybrid war”.

Notice how things aren’t being stolen at this magnitude in China? Japan? If we’re Russian or Iranian for example I think this would be a great strategy if you view yourself at a civilizational war. Most of Europe is still asleep or in denial.

Interrogation is great, you can even get people to confess to things they didn't even do (from IASIP or something like that)

I had no idea this was a thing, but I made a similar joke about Renoir last month when the paintings were stolen, so I guess I belong in this club.

What are you talking about? Those are some of the best paintings ever created. Anyone trying to tell you different is probably a fascist or communist. Both authoritarian and hate-filled ideologies that have no place in modern or future societies.

As long as you are eventually consistent it is all good.