Geoffrey Hinton: it might turn out we were better off without AI (theguardian.com)
71 points by alkyon 2 hours ago
gchamonlive a minute ago
[delayed]
mrweasel 18 minutes ago
If the people in charge of the AI companies understand the risk I don't know, but I think it's a good point that they mainly care about the money. These are also people who aren't accustom to cleaning up their own mess, so what do they care if something goes wrong.
The carelessness is also clear in how AI is rolled out. It's being presented as a disruptive technology, as is everything else presented by modern tech companies. The goal is a very large payout in a very short period of time, it's not to make anything better, or worse, either is just a side effect.
Had LLMs first been presented as a "better IntelliSense", where rather than auto-completing function names, your editor can now suggest implementations, very few people would have been upset. Same for writing, it's just a better version of Grammarly, it's fine, or as a tool in drawing software. The issue would have been, for the AI bosses, that this takes time and doesn't create trillion dollar companies. It only creates companies that they'd actually have to run, long term, and that's boring.
bemtevi an hour ago
"he warned it could trigger a large-scale incident this year or next, such as a temporary blackout of financial or power systems."
I know this sounds unusual, but I do think this wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen. Sure, it would cause a bit of chaos, but it might also make us think twice about continuing down our current path of unfettered development, and possibly even make us much more cautious, which might in turn even help us with the climate crisis.
Because human beings in a large mass only respond to one thing: immediate difficulty. They don't respond to delayed difficulty like "the climate is getting worse" or "technology will make life more difficult in the distant future". They only respond to immediate pain.
So I think it would be a good thing if the financial system had a serious threat. Then people with money, who tend to offset future problems with technical solutions and financial padding, would start to become much more suspicious of technology and defund AI and wasteful things that are likely to threaten their safety.
seviu 18 minutes ago
We are starting to get a taste. Credit Mutuel Arkea just admitted having been hacked. Over 100 millions gone.
Blockchain despite all its flaws, is the canary in the coal mine. They have been dealing with an increasing amount of cyberattacks. Because it all happens publicly in the blockchain, there is no way to hide it.
However major bank gets hacked in the tune of over 100 millions and we get to know it happened because somebody who has no relationship to the hack turned his eyes to a bunch of suspicious transactions happening on Ethereum.
_heimdall 27 minutes ago
I agree that people only really respond when something goes wrong badly enough that its impossible to ignore.
I disagree that something like this would be a good thing though. Whether it's a power outage, financial crisis, or something else people will die. If that's what happens and society ends up adjusting course after then that's what happens, but I can't call people dying a good thing.
bemtevi 23 minutes ago
> people will die.
I don't think that's a good thing. But if we DON'T do anything, then even more poeple are likely to suffer. So while people dying is not a good thing, a thousand people dying is better than a million people dying because we don't do anything.
Same thing about burning your hand. It's not a good thing to burn your hand, but burning your hand once when you're young probably saves you from a more serious accident later on.
wewewedxfgdf 2 minutes ago
Speak for yourself - I'm in AI heaven.
Programming has never been this awesome.
asdfsa32 5 minutes ago
"We". Who "is" we? This isn't about you. or me. there was never a we. Before you open your mouth or put your pen down, wouldn't you think of the shareholder value for once?
bvan 31 minutes ago
Of course, we are. Back in the late 80’s early 90’s, no one working on ML was aspiring to develop systems which would be used to generate the kind of AI crap which plagues us today.The good is being smothered by the absolutely soul-crushing pointless.
gchamonlive 7 minutes ago
[delayed]
bondarchuk 9 minutes ago
So why did he start to develop it in the 1970s?
feverzsj an hour ago
AI winter has arrived.
yewenjie an hour ago
Said AI "experts" for the last 10 years.
jdw64 9 minutes ago
To be honest, I think it depends on the environment. In the past, if you didn't come out of a good university, your access to knowledge was limited. But these days, in terms of access to knowledge, I think things have clearly improved, whether or not AI is illegally sharing knowledge.
Looking back now, was it really happier before AI existed? I'm not sure. In the past, when I wanted to find out whether I was right or wrong about some piece of knowledge or information, I'd contact several people and, far from getting an answer, I'd often be told not to bother them. But AI, in that respect, is the best teacher I can think of.
I think the times are continuously getting better. It's just that there's a problem of power concentration among the people who handle it. Still, if AI is a tool of that nature, then I suppose that can happen.
But considering what access to knowledge was like before AI came along, I think having AI is better.
librasteve an hour ago
modern day Mary Shelley
deadbabe 20 minutes ago
We should introduce regulation so only credentialed software engineers are allowed to use AI.
jdw64 4 minutes ago
In East Asian countries, certification systems are still maintained, but in reality they're practically meaningless. If a certification system exists, people will take an interest in CS and work harder at it, or so you'd think—but in reality, the exam questions end up stuck in the old style. In other words, there's a big gap between the exams and the actual field.
Because a certification has to be fixed at a particular point in time. Korea's certification exams start with the 23 GoF patterns and go on to rote memorization of countless patterns and layered terminology.
The problem is that the way you learn for this certification is the old way, so someone who gets the certification ends up writing legacy code.
But if you always update the questions to the latest, then nobody can pass the certification. So, having seen how the certification system works in East Asia, I don't think it's all that good
perarneng an hour ago
We are not but we need a better approach, https://www.ethicalacceleration.org
bemtevi an hour ago
> It could help cure diseases, end boring work and give us more free time.
Seriously? It seems to be causing more problems, giving us more boring work, and less free time.... sounds like absolute bullshit.
233mhz a minute ago
I mean, it could if "we" "just" got out of globalized financial capitalism, changed everything about our political, economical, financial, social systems, etc.
Only 14 years old and accelerationists think we can just push the capitalism pedal further and somehow get social changes going their way
_heimdall 24 minutes ago
"Could" does a lot of work in these kinds of claims.
We need to build it as fast as possible because it could cure all disease. Ignore whether that's possible, how it might happen, whether all we're missing to do it is more intelligence, etc.
The only way I see us curing all disease is to throw out all the names we've given to collections of symptoms. What disease? I don't see no disease, you just have a sore throat, runny nose, and mild fever.
bemtevi 22 minutes ago
staminade 19 minutes ago
How has AI given you less free time?
bemtevi 12 minutes ago
koe123 24 minutes ago
You’re a cultist
xnx an hour ago
This is a bit like Rudolf Diesel saying maybe we're better off without airplanes. The field has long since left this guy behind.
Towaway69 13 minutes ago
So pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is a good thing and if someone does a backflip by recognising their mistakes that is a bad thing?
sneak 6 minutes ago
It might turn out we were better off without nuclear weapons, but so far I’m happy we haven’t had another world war (in the traditional “total war” sense).
No way to tell until after, though. So far, mutually assured destruction is working. It works until it doesn’t.
Same with AI. Thus far we’re better off with it than without it. That may change.
I mean, look what we did with fossil fuels. Some people are even still willingly burning them, even though the data is clear that our use of them has already started the total destruction of our civilization.
Is there a name for this, a technology that is so insanely useful that there is no way we won’t exploit it, but where the worst case scenario is total collapse, and impossible to determine well in advance?
(Fossil fuels I suppose don’t count as even the energy companies knew unambiguously decades ago that large scale use would eventually bake the entire agricultural system out of existence.)
spwa4 an hour ago
I guess capsule network haven't improved ...
neonnoodle an hour ago
oh word?
jjgreen 2 hours ago
The scene is bleak, silent, desert-like with a few dead trees bleached white by unfiltered UV. Nothing moves. In the distance a cave, and from that cave
... no shit Sherlock
bluebarbet an hour ago
9 minutes. Was that enough time to read the article?
catchnear4321 an hour ago
Did you look at it? It wasn’t that long.
ionwake an hour ago
dude250711 2 hours ago
We should have not left the trees. You cannot disrupt banking and power if they do not exist. Checkmate!
olelele 23 minutes ago
The ghost of Douglas Adams has entered the chat
throwthrowuknow an hour ago
> we fail to manage the risks and … have a huge gap between rich and poor, huge cultural problems, massive unemployment, just society being torn apart
ok boomer